Curbing global solid waste emissions toward net-zero warming futures

Abstract

No global analysis has considered the warming that could be averted through improved solid waste management and how much that could contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5° and 2°C pathway goals or the terms of the Global Methane Pledge. With our estimated global solid waste generation of 2.56 to 3.33 billion tonnes by 2050, implementing abrupt technical and behavioral changes could result in a net-zero warming solid waste system relative to 2020, leading to 11 to 27 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide warming–equivalent emissions under the temperature limits. These changes, however, require accelerated adoption within 9 to 17 years (by 2033 to 2041) to align with the Global Methane Pledge. Rapidly reducing methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide emissions is necessary to maximize the short-term climate benefits and stop the ongoing temperature rise.