A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101448
Robert Calvert Jump , Karsten Kohler
{"title":"A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016","authors":"Robert Calvert Jump ,&nbsp;Karsten Kohler","doi":"10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101448","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47413,"journal":{"name":"Explorations in Economic History","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101448"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001449832200016X/pdfft?md5=54d8e82cd7f839af7952a41fe40701d0&pid=1-s2.0-S001449832200016X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Explorations in Economic History","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001449832200016X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 – 2016 for the United Kingdom. Sign restrictions derived from a workhorse Keynesian model are used to identify the signs of those shocks. We compare the 30 largest shocks implied by a vector autoregressive model in unemployment and inflation with the narrative historical record. Our approach provides a new perspective on well-known events in economic history. We highlight two episodes of particular interest: an aggregate supply shock in the late 1920s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labor, and positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
1900年至2016年英国总需求和总供给冲击的历史
本文介绍了1900年至2016年英国总需求和总供给冲击的历史。来自凯恩斯模型的信号限制被用来识别这些冲击的信号。我们将失业率和通货膨胀的矢量自回归模型所隐含的30次最大冲击与叙事历史记录进行比较。我们的方法为经济史上著名的事件提供了一个新的视角。我们特别强调了两个事件:20世纪20年代末的总供给冲击,我们将其归因于劳动力议价能力的变化,以及20世纪70年代中期的正总需求冲击,我们将其归因于财政政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
期刊最新文献
Monumental effects: Confederate monuments in the Post-Reconstruction South Wealth and history: A reappraisal Family first: Defining, constructing, and applying historical patent families Reservoirs of power: The political legacy of dam construction in Franco’s Spain (In-kind) Wages and labour relations in the Middle Ages: It’s not (all) about the money
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1