Explorations in Economic History最新文献

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Economic stress and migration in early modern Japan: Rural-urban comparative evidence from population registers

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101667

Satomi KUROSU , Hao DONG

This study investigates the effects of economic stress on out-migration behaviors using individual-level panel data transcribed from local population registers of three villages and a neighboring town in northeastern Japan in 1708–1870. Economic stress under study includes local economic hardship, measured by rice price fluctuations, and large-scale famines. We apply multinomial logistic models to examine competing risks of migration for various reasons and to compare rural and non-rural populations. The likelihood of service-related migration declined while that of illegal absconding increased during times of economic hardship. Rural residents were more vulnerable to famines, whereas urban residents were more affected by rice price fluctuations. Moreover, systematic socioeconomic heterogeneities existed in the migration responses to economic stress between the landowner/tax-payer and landless/non-tax-payer classes. Overall, this study dissects the complex dynamics of migration responses to economic stress, revealing significant variations based on migration reasons, socioeconomic status, and rural-urban contexts.

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引用次数: 0

Examining the role of training data for supervised methods of automated record linkage: Lessons for best practice in economic history

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101656

James J Feigenbaum , Jonas Helgertz , Joseph Price

During the past decade, scholars have produced a vast amount of research using linked historical individual-level data, shaping and changing our understanding of the past. This linked data revolution has been powered by methodological and computational advances, partly focused on supervised machine-learning methods that rely on training data. The importance of obtaining high-quality training data for the performance of the record linkage algorithm largely, however, remains unknown. This paper comprehensively examines the role of training data, and—by extension—improves our understanding of best practices in supervised methods of probabilistic record linkage. First, we compare the speed and costs of building training data using different methods. Second, we document high rates of conditional accuracy across the training data sets, rates that are especially high when built with access to more information. Third, we show that data constructed by record linking algorithms learning from different training-data-generation methods do not substantially differ in their accuracy, either overall or across demographic groups, though algorithms tend to perform best when their feature space aligns with the features used to build the training data. Lastly, we introduce errors in the training data and find that the examined record linking algorithms are remarkably capable of making accurate links even working with flawed training data.

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引用次数: 0

Balancing economic stress: The role of rural–urban migration in nineteenth-century East Belgium

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101666

George C. Alter , Michel Oris

In this paper we propose an integrated view of both the rural and the urban sides of migration in 19th century East Belgium. We study two rural areas, Ardennes and the Pays de Herve, with diverging agrarian structures and pathways to modernization. Both areas faced the challenge of population pressure due to high fertility and falling mortality. Between them was a textile town, Verviers, which was one of the cradles of industrial revolution in continental Europe. Young people in rural areas engaged in circular migrations with the goal of marrying and establishing new households, which became increasingly difficult in communities with growing populations and diminishing opportunities. Moving from farm to farm also increased as the ownership of farmland became more concentrated and unequal. Those who did not succeed in the countryside moved to Verviers and rarely returned to their rural roots. Instead, they entered a different migratory system within the urban-industrial agglomeration. When urban economic conditions were bad, migrants from Ardennes and the Pays de Herve did not leave Verviers for other industrial areas. They preferred to remain close to kin living in the villages. Overall, migration flows responded weakly to short-term fluctuations in prices and industrial activity, but rural-urban migrations relieved growing economic stress in the countryside.

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引用次数: 0

Gains from factory electrification: Evidence from North Carolina, 1905–1926

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101654

Will Damron

Between 1900 and 1930, the share of power in American manufacturing coming from electricity grew from 10% to 80%. Although electrification has been attributed with dramatic productivity gains, data limitations have constrained previous research to rely on aggregate data. Using a newly-collected dataset covering manufacturers in North Carolina in the early 1900s, I examine the effects of electrification at the establishment level. Manufacturers who electrified increased their productivity and output relative to manufacturers who did not. The effects on workers were mixed. While electrification increased average wages, it also increased the return to skill and reduced the labor share. Delays in electricity adoption point to the importance of complementary innovations in electricity transmission and financial markets.

引用次数: 0

Union wage effects in Sweden: Evidence from the interwar period

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101655

William Skoglund

In this paper, I use a new plant-level dataset to investigate the relationship between wages and the regional strength of unions. Using a shift-share or ’Bartik’ instrumental variables approach, I disentangle the causal effect of union strength on wage levels. I find statistically significant and economically substantial, heterogeneous union wage effects for men with the bottom of the distribution of plants being impacted by union density and the top two-thirds being unaffected. I find a statistically weaker negative effect on wages for women and argue that unions, in general, were uninterested in the issues of women. The paper contributes to the literature by providing the only evidence of a union wage effect in Sweden and, the earliest identified union wage effect anywhere—highlighting the importance of unions in shaping labor market outcomes in the early 20th century and showing that union wage effects are products of their historical and institutional context.

引用次数: 0

The fertility response to price changes in a manorial society: The case of rural Estonia, 1834–1884 庄园社会中生育率对价格变化的反应：以爱沙尼亚农村为例，1834-1884

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101653

Martin Klesment, Kersti Lust

In the pre-industrial era, changing economic conditions had a strong influence on demographic processes. Using pre-industrial rural Estonia as an example, the article studies fertility response to short-term economic stress in a manorial society in eastern Europe. It considers whether the fertility response to rye price fluctuations was deliberate and whether it was socially differentiated. It appears that an increase in the price of rye resulted in the drop of conceptions within the next year and the magnitude of the impact on fertility was roughly similar to that in several other European settings in the 19th century. As long as the manorial system was maintained, farmers were more sensitive to price hikes than the landless, but with the decline of the mutual economic dependence between manors and farms, the landless laborers became more vulnerable to price increases. Our analysis of the timing of the fertility response reveals no deliberate postponement of conceptions immediately before or after the low harvests or price increases. Instead, conceptions dropped only in the spring and summer season of the next year, indicating a non-deliberate and spontaneous response.

在前工业化时代，不断变化的经济条件对人口进程产生了强烈的影响。本文以工业化前的爱沙尼亚农村为例，研究了东欧庄园社会中生育率对短期经济压力的反应。它考虑了生育对黑麦价格波动的反应是否是有意的，以及这种反应是否存在社会差异。看来，黑麦价格的上涨导致了第二年受孕率的下降，其对生育率的影响程度与19世纪其他几个欧洲国家的情况大致相似。在庄园制度存在的情况下，农民比无地劳动者对价格上涨更为敏感，但随着庄园与农场之间相互经济依赖性的下降，无地劳动者对价格上涨的抵抗力也随之下降。我们对生育反应时间的分析表明，在低收成或价格上涨之前或之后，没有人故意推迟受孕。相反，只有在第二年的春季和夏季，怀孕率才下降，这表明这是一种无意识的、自发的反应。

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引用次数: 0

Poverty in Germany from the Black Death until the Beginning of Industrialization 从黑死病到工业化开始德国的贫困

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101630

Guido Alfani , Victoria Gierok , Felix Schaff

This paper provides macro-level estimates of the prevalence of poverty in preindustrial Germany, from the Black Death to the onset of industrialization in the nineteenth century. Based on a new body of evidence we show that poverty declined after two large-scale catastrophes: the Black Death in the fourteenth century and the Thirty Years’ War in the seventeenth. Poverty increased substantially in the sixteenth century, and stagnated in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This pattern is broadly in line with a Malthusian model of the preindustrial economy, but also with several other explanations of poverty. Circa 1600, poverty and inequality extraction were at a historical peak – right when social conflict erupted in Germany.

本文从宏观层面估算了工业化前德国从黑死病到 19 世纪工业化开始期间的贫困发生率。基于大量新的证据，我们发现贫困率在两次大规模灾难之后有所下降：14 世纪的黑死病和 17 世纪的三十年战争。贫困在 16 世纪大幅增加，在 18 世纪和 19 世纪早期停滞不前。这一模式大致符合马尔萨斯的前工业经济模式，同时也符合其他几种对贫困的解释。1600 年左右，贫困和不平等现象达到了历史顶峰--此时德国爆发了社会冲突。

引用次数: 0

The evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution 工业革命期间水力价值的演变

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101645

Todd Guilfoos

This work measures the historical evolution of the value of water power during the Industrial Revolution in the United States. I use the variation in county level agricultural land prices and the natural endowment of water power to identify the value of water power. This value is decomposed into direct values (power as a prime mover) and indirect values (attracting infrastructure) from 1850 to 1920; prior to 1900 approximately 85%–90% of the total value is derived from the direct effect of water power. Significant devaluation of water-power endowments occur after 1900, with a significant decline in value by 1920.

这项工作衡量了美国工业革命期间水力价值的历史演变。本文利用县域农用地价格的变化和水电的自然禀赋来确定水电的价值。从1850年到1920年，该价值被分解为直接价值（电力作为原动力）和间接价值（吸引基础设施）；1900年以前，大约85%-90%的总价值来自水力发电的直接影响。水电禀赋在1900年以后出现显著贬值，到1920年价值显著下降。

引用次数: 0

Protestantism and human capital: Evidence from early 20th century Ireland 新教与人力资本：来自20世纪初爱尔兰的证据

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101647

Alan Fernihough , Stuart Henderson

Using a large individual-level dataset, we explore the significance of religious affiliation for human capital variation in Ireland at the turn of the twentieth century. We construct a large sample based on the returns of male household heads in the 1901 census and explore variation in literacy across the three principal denominations: Roman Catholicism, Anglicanism and Presbyterianism. Protestantism, particularly Presbyterianism, is associated with higher levels of human capital. This denominational effect is remarkably robust, even when accounting for various control variables and alternative modelling specifications. Supplementary analyses reveal that these literacy disparities existed before the foundation of centralised national schooling in 1831 and were independent of school attendance, as Presbyterians exhibited lower attendance rates than Anglicans. We suggest that denomination mattered because it affected the incentives to accrue literacy ability to fully participate in religious and wider cultural life.

利用大型个人层面的数据集，我们探讨了宗教信仰对二十世纪之交爱尔兰人力资本变化的意义。我们根据1901年人口普查中男性户主的回报构建了一个大样本，并探讨了三个主要教派（罗马天主教、英国国教和长老会）的识字率差异。新教，尤其是长老会，与较高水平的人力资本有关。即使考虑到各种控制变量和可选的建模规范，这种命名效应也非常稳健。补充分析显示，这些文化差异在1831年中央国家学校建立之前就存在了，并且与学校出勤率无关，因为长老会教徒的出勤率低于英国国教教徒。我们认为，教派很重要，因为它影响了人们积累识字能力的动机，从而充分参与宗教和更广泛的文化生活。

引用次数: 0

Long-term trends in income and wealth inequality in southern Italy. The Kingdom of Naples (Apulia), sixteenth to eighteenth centuries 意大利南部收入和财富不平等的长期趋势。那不勒斯王国（普利亚），16至18世纪

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101646

Guido Alfani , Sergio Sardone

This paper uses new archival sources to study the long-term tendencies in economic inequality in preindustrial southern Italy (Kingdom of Naples). The paper reconstructs long-term trends in wealth inequality for the period 1550–1800 for a sample of communities in the region Apulia and produces estimates of overall inequality levels across the region. These estimates are compared with those which have recently been published for other Italian and European regions or states. The article also reconstructs the total income distribution for the mid-eighteenth century, then comparing wealth and income inequality. Overall, the evidence for the Kingdom of Naples suggests a tendency for economic inequality to grow continuously over the early modern period. As this was mostly a period of economic stagnation or decline for the Kingdom, the article provides further insights to the debate on the long-run relationship between economic growth and inequality change.

本文利用新的档案资料来研究前工业化时期意大利南部（那不勒斯王国）经济不平等的长期趋势。本文以普利亚地区的社区为样本，重建了1550-1800年间财富不平等的长期趋势，并对该地区的总体不平等水平进行了估计。这些估计值与意大利和欧洲其他地区或州最近公布的估计值进行了比较。本文还重构了18世纪中期的收入分配总量，并对财富和收入不平等进行了比较。总的来说，那不勒斯王国的证据表明，在近代早期，经济不平等的趋势持续增长。由于这段时期主要是沙特经济停滞或衰退的时期，本文为有关经济增长与不平等变化之间长期关系的辩论提供了进一步的见解。

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