Detection and quantification of wave trends in the Mediterranean basin

Abstract

A study of a 42-year (1979–2020) long wave time series was performed for the Mediterranean Sea to detect and quantify trends in two relevant wave parameters adopted for coastal and offshore engineering purposes: significant wave height, $H_s$ and peak period, $T_p$. The high resolution MeteOcean Re-Analysis database by the Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering (DICCA) was used. At yearly and seasonal scales, the trends of the mean and maximum values were detected by the Mann–Kendall test, choosing a significance level equal to 90%. The slope or increase/decrease trends in $H_s$ and $T_p$ were assessed by the Theil–Sen estimator. For the mean values of $H_s$ and $T_p$, increasing trends were detected for the Libyan, Levantine and Aegean seas, while for the maximum values this increasing trend was observed in a large part of the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, for the different marginal seas of the Mediterranean basin, a running trend analysis was applied in order to quantify the effect of the time window in the trend detection. The obtained results can be significant for flooding and erosion control strategies, ship and port operations, design and verification of structures, installations of Wave Energy Converters, in a hot spot for climate change such as the Mediterranean basin.