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Impact of boundary layer parameterizations on simulated seasonal meteorology over North-East India 边界层参数化对印度东北部模拟季节性气象的影响
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101505
Neeldip Barman , Sharad Gokhale , Dewashish Tiwari
This study evaluated the accuracy of six planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in simulating two different seasons of pre-monsoon and monsoon in India's North-East region through the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Twelve one-month simulations were conducted with the PBL schemes, six each for April (pre-monsoon) and July (monsoon), and the model outputs were compared against observations. Three non-local schemes, Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2), Yonsei University (YSU), Shin-Hong (HONG), and three local schemes, Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) and Mellor Yamada Nakanishi Nino (MYNN3), were tested. The meteorological variables of temperature, relative humidity (RH), wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall were evaluated, and the performance of each scheme for each meteorological variable is reported. The 2 m temperature (T2) variable was well simulated by ACM2, MYJ in April, and YSU in July, while MYNN3 best simulated the 2 m RH (RH2) during both seasons. 10 m wind speed (WS10) and directions (WD10) were better simulated by MYNN3, HONG and YSU. HONG also best-simulated rainfall in April and MYJ in July. April and July being rainfall periods, an analysis of the schemes’ simulated rainfall frequency was also carried out. Moreover, the PBL schemes were also ranked, considering their combined performance with all the above meteorological parameters. While considering both the seasons and all meteorological variables, the scale-aware scheme, HONG, was the best scheme and can be used to simulate both seasons. Additionally, an in-depth analysis of surface and atmospheric parameters was also carried out to reason the simulated meteorology. QNSE expends the highest amount of its surface energy through surface evaporation, leading to the lowest surface skin temperature and T2 predictions. In contrast, MYNN3 produced the lowest mixing, which caused the moistest boundary layer, highest RH, cloud cover, and highly overestimated rainfall. Besides evaluation, which will help to choose a suitable PBL scheme for weather predictions in this region, this study also identifies the characteristics and deficiencies of PBL and surface layer schemes for improvement.
本研究评估了六种行星边界层(PBL)参数化方案在通过天气研究和预报(WRF)模式模拟印度东北部地区季风前和季风两个不同季节时的准确性。利用 PBL 方案进行了 12 次为期一个月的模拟,其中 4 月(季风前)和 7 月(季风)各 6 次,并将模型输出结果与观测结果进行了比较。测试了三个非本地方案,即非对称对流模式(ACM2)、延世大学(YSU)、 Shin-Hong(HONG),以及三个本地方案,即准正常尺度消除(QNSE)、Mellor Yamada Janjic(MYJ)和 Mellor Yamada Nakanishi Nino(MYNN3)。对温度、相对湿度 (RH)、风速、风向和降雨量等气象变量进行了评估,并报告了各方案对各气象变量的性能。ACM2 和 MYJ 分别在 4 月和 7 月对 2 米温度 (T2) 变量和 YSU 进行了良好的模拟,而 MYNN3 则在这两个季节对 2 米相对湿度 (RH2) 进行了最佳模拟。MYNN3、HONG 和 YSU 对 10 米风速(WS10)和风向(WD10)的模拟效果更好。此外,HONG 对 4 月降雨量的模拟效果最佳,MYJ 对 7 月降雨量的模拟效果最佳。由于四月和七月是降雨多发期,因此还对各方案模拟的降雨频率进行了分析。此外,还对后海灣幹线方案进行了排名,考虑了它们在上述所有气象参数下的综合表现。在考虑两个季节和所有气象变量的情况下,规模感知方案 HONG 是最佳方案,可用于模拟两个季节。此外,还对地表和大气参数进行了深入分析,以对模拟气象进行推理。QNSE 通过地表蒸发消耗的地表能量最高,导致地表表皮温度和 T2 预测值最低。相比之下,MYNN3 产生的混合最少,导致边界层最潮湿、相对湿度最高、云量最多,降雨量被高估。除了评估有助于为该地区的天气预报选择合适的 PBL 方案外,本研究还指出了 PBL 和表层方案的特点和不足之处,以供改进。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping the dynamics of global sea surface nitrate using ocean color data 利用海洋颜色数据绘制全球海面硝酸盐动态图
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101507
Ibrahim Shaik , P.V. Nagamani , Yash Manmode , Sandesh Yadav , Venkatesh Degala , G. Srinivasa Rao
Sea Surface Nitrate (SSN) is crucial for assessing phytoplankton growth and the initiation of new production within the marine environment. Precise estimation of SSN concentrations plays a significant role in understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. In this study, the deep learning model TabularNet (TabNet) was assessed using quality-controlled in-situ measurements from the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP). These measurements included Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla), and nitrate, collected from various regions of the global ocean to achieve accurate SSN estimation. The TabNet model demonstrated superior performance and robustness, achieving accurate global SSN estimations using satellite data. The model yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.02 μmol/kg, a mean bias (MB) of −0.32 μmol/kg, a mean ratio (MR) of 0.78, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.96. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of TabNet against Random Forest (RF) and Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) models was conducted. The results highlighted the robust performance of TabNet in accurately estimating SSN dynamics. TabNet effectively utilized in-situ and satellite data, providing accurate SSN dynamics. This technique offers valuable insights for monitoring global surface ocean nitrate dynamics, enhancing our ability to understand and manage marine ecosystems.
海面硝酸盐(SSN)对于评估海洋环境中浮游植物的生长和新产量的启动至关重要。对 SSN 浓度的精确估算对了解海洋生态系统动态起着重要作用。在这项研究中,利用全球海洋数据分析项目(GLODAP)中质量受控的现场测量数据,对深度学习模型 TabularNet(TabNet)进行了评估。这些测量数据包括海面温度 (SST)、海面盐度 (SSS)、叶绿素 a 浓度 (Chla) 和硝酸盐,采集自全球海洋的不同区域,以实现精确的 SSN 估算。TabNet 模型表现出卓越的性能和鲁棒性,利用卫星数据实现了精确的全球 SSN 估计。该模型的均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 2.02 μmol/kg,平均偏差 (MB) 为 -0.32 μmol/kg,平均比率 (MR) 为 0.78,判定系数 (R2) 为 0.96。此外,还对 TabNet 与随机森林 (RF) 和前馈神经网络 (FFNN) 模型进行了比较分析。结果凸显了 TabNet 在准确估计 SSN 动态方面的强大性能。TabNet 有效地利用了现场和卫星数据,提供了准确的 SSN 动态。这项技术为监测全球表层海洋硝酸盐动态提供了宝贵的见解,提高了我们了解和管理海洋生态系统的能力。
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引用次数: 0
The vortex splitting process from interaction between a mesoscale vortex and two islands 中尺度涡旋与两个岛屿相互作用产生的涡旋分裂过程
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101506
Mingze Ji , Xiongbo Zheng , Fangli Qiao , Jingyi Lu , He Liu , Xiaole Li
Mesoscale vortices are major carriers of oceanic material and energy transfer, transporting large amounts of high-energy, temperature-anomalous water bodies during their movement. This significantly impacts both the ocean and the atmosphere. Based on the distribution of the North Brazil Curren rings and the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea, we use the Regional Ocean Model System ocean circulation model to construct an idealized vortex. Simulations are conducted by varying the distances between the two islands and the scales of the islands to analyze how different parameters affect the vortex path and structural evolution. Using theoretical derivation and numerical simulation results, we construct a dimensionless parameter involving vortex diameter, island diameter, and the distance between the islands to determine the conditions under which vortex splitting occurs. The reliability of this dimensionless parameter is verified using experimental data and satellite data from St. Vincent and Barbados from April 6 to May 6, 2000.
中尺度涡是海洋物质和能量转移的主要载体,在其运动过程中会输送大量高能量、温度反常的水体。这对海洋和大气都有重大影响。根据加勒比海东部北巴西库伦环和小安的列斯群岛的分布情况,我们利用区域海洋模式系统海洋环流模式构建了一个理想化的漩涡。通过改变两岛之间的距离和岛屿的尺度进行模拟,分析不同参数对涡旋路径和结构演变的影响。利用理论推导和数值模拟结果,我们构建了一个涉及涡旋直径、岛直径和岛间距离的无量纲参数,以确定涡旋分裂发生的条件。利用 2000 年 4 月 6 日至 5 月 6 日圣文森特和巴巴多斯的实验数据和卫星数据验证了这一无量纲参数的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
The curious case of a strong relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon in CFSv2 model CFSv2 模型中厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与印度夏季季风关系密切的奇特案例
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101504
Priyanshi Singhai , Arindam Chakraborty , Kaushik Jana , Kavirajan Rajendran , Sajani Surendran , Kathy Pegion
An ensemble of forecasts is necessary to identify the uncertainty in predicting a non-linear system like climate. While ensemble averages are often used to represent the mean state and diagnose physical mechanisms, they can lead to information loss and inaccurate assessment of the model’s characteristics. Here, we highlight an intriguing case in the seasonal hindcasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). While all ensemble members often agree on the sign of predicted El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a particular season, non-ENSO climate forcings, although present in some of the individual members, are disparate. As a result, an ensemble mean retains ENSO anomalies while diminishing non-ENSO signals. This difference between ENSO and non-ENSO signals significantly influences moisture convergence and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). This stronger influence of ENSO on seasonal predictions increases ENSO–ISMR correlation in ensemble mean seasonal hindcasts. Thus, this discrepancy in the ENSO–ISMR relationship is not present in the individual ensemble members, considered individually or together (without averaging) as independent realizations. Therefore, adequate care should be taken while evaluating physical mechanisms of teleconnection in ensemble mean predictions that can often be skewed due to constructive or destructive superposition of different impacts.
要确定预测像气候这样的非线性系统的不确定性,必须进行集合预测。虽然集合平均值通常用于表示平均状态和诊断物理机制,但它们可能导致信息丢失和对模式特征的不准确评估。在此,我们重点介绍气候预测系统版本 2(CFSv2)季节性后报中的一个有趣案例。虽然所有集合成员经常在特定季节预测的厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)的符号上达成一致,但非 ENSO 气候作用力虽然存在于一些单个成员中,但却不尽相同。因此,集合平均值保留了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动异常,同时减弱了非厄尔尼诺/南方涛动信号。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动和非厄尔尼诺/南方涛动信号之间的这种差异对水汽辐合和印度夏季季风降雨量(ISMR)产生了重大影响。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动对季节预测的更大影响增加了集合平均季节后报中厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与印度夏季季风降水的相关性。因此,ENSO-ISMR 关系中的这种差异并不存在于作为独立实现的单个集合成员中,也不存在于作为独立实现的集合成员中。因此,在评估集合均值预测中的远距离联系物理机制时应充分注意,由于不同影响的建设性或破坏性叠加,集合均值预测往往会出现偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the genesis and development trend of tropical depressions under different large-scale backgrounds 不同大尺度背景下热带低气压的成因及发展趋势研究
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101501
Xiaowen Wei , Xiuping Yao , Xun Li , Zhiyan Wu , Qingchuan Wu
Based on self-organizing maps (SOM), large-scale backgrounds associated with tropical depression (TD) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) in 1949–2021 are classified into four circulation patterns, monsoon gyre (MG) pattern, monsoon confluence (MC) pattern, monsoon trough (MT) pattern and easterly wave (EW) pattern. TDs generated in the MC pattern has the southernmost average genesis location and the highest development probability, while TDs occurred in the EW pattern are averagely located northernmost and their probability of development is the lowest. TDs formed in the MG, MT and EW patterns are most active in August, whereas in the MC pattern, TD genesis number peaks in October. Advantageous conditions for TD genesis vary in different circulation patterns. The vigorous vorticity "embryo" provides stronger initial disturbances for MG pattern; The strong upper-level divergence and the weak deep-layer VWS provide sufficient dynamic conditions for the MC pattern; The MT pattern possess the highest SST, which supplies an ample supply of heat and moisture; The EW pattern has less beneficial conditions compared with other three patterns. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) method is applied to quantify the relative importance of individual factors to TD development trend. 500-hPa vorticity, 200-hPa divergence and SST are major dynamic and thermal affecting factors for TD development, the importance of which all ranked at top four in the four patterns; VWS plays an indispensable role in TD development for the MC and EW patterns; Comparely,850-hPa vorticity and vertically integrated water vapor flux are not as important as above environmental factors in deciding whether a TD develops.
基于自组织模式图(SOM),将1949-2021年北太平洋西部热带低压生成的大尺度背景划分为四种环流模式,即季风回旋(MG)模式、季风汇合(MC)模式、季风槽(MT)模式和东风波(EW)模式。在 MC 模式下产生的热带气旋平均成因位置最南,发展概率最高;而在 EW 模式下出现的热带气旋平均成因位置最北,发展概率最低。在 MG、MT 和 EW 模式中形成的 TD 在 8 月份最为活跃,而在 MC 模式中,TD 生成数量在 10 月份达到高峰。在不同的环流模式中,形成 TD 的有利条件各不相同。强烈的涡度 "胚胎 "为 MG 模式提供了较强的初始扰动;强烈的高层辐合和较弱的深层 VWS 为 MC 模式提供了充足的动力条件;MT 模式拥有最高的 SST,可提供充足的热量和水汽;EW 模式与其他三种模式相比,有利条件较少。应用极端梯度提升(XGBoost)方法量化了各因素对 TD 发展趋势的相对重要性。500-hPa涡度、200-hPa辐合和SST是TD发展的主要动力和热力影响因子,其重要性在四种模式中均排在前四位;VWS对MC和EW模式的TD发展起着不可或缺的作用;相比之下,850-hPa涡度和垂直一体化水汽通量在决定TD是否发展方面的重要性不如上述环境因子。
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引用次数: 0
Role of met-oceanic response to the intensification of tropical cyclones: A comparative analysis on cyclone Tauktae and Yaas 元海洋响应对热带气旋加强的作用:陶克泰气旋和雅斯气旋的比较分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101502
Amit Kumar Jena , Manasa Ranjan Behera , Sachiko Mohanty , Srineash VK
The present study investigates the physical response of surface met-ocean variables during the tropical cyclones (TCs) Tauktae (14–19 May) and Yaas (23–28 May) along the eastern Arabian Sea and western Bay of Bengal respectively using multi-platform datasets. This study synthesizes scientific understanding of the complex interplay between TCs, Marine heat waves (MHWs), and vertical wind shear; and focuses on their combined effects on ocean dynamics. The TC Tauktae developed and rapidly intensified without encountering any MHW event and required longer lifespan (∼3 days) to reach its peak as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS). Conversely, prolonged MHW event, persisting for five-fold duration (26 days), significantly influenced the intensification of TC Yaas into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) within a shorter duration (∼1.5 days). TC Yaas intensified due to vertical wind shear, which transported heat and moisture from the Arabian Sea, creating favorable environment for its growth and development. Furthermore, the low vertical wind shear preceding Yaas provides favorable conditions for the persistence of MHW events. The presence of an anticyclonic eddy along the track played a crucial role in the intensification of TC Tauktae and Yaas. Before TC Yaas, elevated shortwave radiation and reduced longwave radiation played a significant role in sustaining the MHW event, unlike TC Tauktae. After the landfall of TC Yaas, the barrier layer thickness and mixed layer heat content were still high, whereas these were low in case of Tauktae. This signifies that higher translational speed of TC Yaas, relative to Tauktae, leads to reduced churning effects within the ocean, allowing for the retention of a substantial amount of heat within the mixed layer.
本研究利用多平台数据集调查了热带气旋陶克泰(Tauktae)(5 月 14-19 日)和雅斯(Yaas)(5 月 23-28 日)分别在阿拉伯海东部和孟加拉湾西部发生期间表层气象海洋变量的物理响应。这项研究综合了对热带气旋、海洋热浪(MHWs)和垂直风切变之间复杂相互作用的科学认识,并侧重于它们对海洋动力学的综合影响。热带气旋陶克泰(Tauktae)在没有遇到任何海洋热浪的情况下发展并迅速增强,需要较长的生命周期(∼3 天)才能达到极严重气旋风暴(ESCS)的峰值。相反,持续时间长达五倍(26 天)的 MHW 事件对 TC Yaas 在较短时间(∼1.5 天)内增强为极严重气旋风暴(VSCS)有显著影响。热带气旋雅斯的增强是由于垂直风切变从阿拉伯海输送热量和水汽,为其生长和发展创造了有利环境。此外,雅斯之前的低垂直风切变为 MHW 事件的持续提供了有利条件。沿路径出现的反气旋涡旋对热带气旋陶克泰和雅斯的加强起了关键作用。与TC Tauktae不同的是,在TC Yaas登陆之前,短波辐射的增加和长波辐射的减少对MHW事件的持续起了重要作用。在雅斯风暴登陆后,阻挡层厚度和混合层热含量仍然较高,而陶克泰风暴的阻挡层厚度和混合层热含量较低。这表明,相对于陶克泰,TC Yaas 的平移速度较高,导致海洋内的搅动效应减弱,使大量热量保留在混合层内。
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引用次数: 0
A robust stepwise jump in the Arctic wintertime warming in 2005 coherent with the increased clear-sky downward longwave radiation flux 2005 年北极冬季气候变暖的强劲跃升与晴空向下长波辐射通量的增加相一致
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101503
Mikhail M. Latonin , Anna Yu. Demchenko
In some areas of the Arctic, the Earth's surface temperature and near-surface air temperature are rising faster than in others. The purpose of this study is to identify, based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis data, the spatiotemporal structure of climatic changes in the Arctic during 1959–2022. The main emphasis is put on the following three parameters: mean surface clear-sky downward longwave radiation flux, near-surface air temperature, and skin temperature. A statistical model of stepwise changes was applied to the time series of the studied characteristics at each grid point of the entire Arctic (67°N–90°N). The results obtained indicate a close relationship between all parameters in the winter season. The dominant year of stepwise changes in the Arctic is 2005. Moreover, it is precisely this transition from one state of the climate system to another that is statistically significant over a large territory, which is located mainly in the Eastern Hemisphere. The time series averaged over the identified areas are highly correlated with each other, and the year 2005 characterizes the change from a sharp increase in values to their variability without a pronounced trend. The available satellite observations fully confirm the temporal structure of the stepwise changes for the studied parameters and largely confirm its spatial structure. Thus, the clear-sky downward longwave radiation flux is one of the leading factors in the formation of the thermal regime of the Arctic.
在北极的一些地区,地球表面温度和近地面气温的上升速度比其他地区快。本研究的目的是根据ERA5气候再分析数据,确定1959-2022年间北极地区气候变化的时空结构。研究重点是以下三个参数:平均表面晴空向下长波辐射通量、近地面气温和皮肤温度。对整个北极地区(北纬 67 度-北纬 90 度)每个网格点的所研究特征的时间序列应用了逐步变化统计模型。结果表明,冬季所有参数之间的关系密切。北极地区阶跃变化的主要年份是 2005 年。此外,正是这种从气候系统的一种状态到另一种状态的转变,在主要位于东半球的大片地区具有显著的统计学意义。所确定地区的时间序列平均值彼此高度相关,2005 年的特点是从数值急剧增加到无明显趋势的变化。现有的卫星观测完全证实了所研究参数的阶跃变化的时间结构,并在很大程度上证实了其空间结构。因此,晴空向下长波辐射通量是形成北极热制度的主要因素之一。
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引用次数: 0
Adjustment of the marine atmospheric boundary-layer to the North Brazil Current during the EUREC4A-OA experiment EUREC4A-OA 试验期间海洋大气边界层对巴西北部洋流的调整
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101500
Hervé Giordani , Carlos Conejero , Lionel Renault
The region of Barbados is characterized by the presence of the North Brazil Current (NBC), which transports warm water along the Brazilian coasts and creates a large-scale northeast–southwest SST-gradient of 3 °C 1300 km1. This study examines how the marine atmospheric boundary-layer (MABL) adjusts to the NBC SST-front represented by the SST analyses produced by the operational forecasting systems ECMWF and Mercator Ocean International (MOI). The NBC SST-front imprints large-scale dipole-anomalies in the surface buoyancy flux, sea level pressure, sea surface wind intensity, vertical shear of zonal wind (main component of trade winds), liquid water content and precipitable water in the MABL ranging from 50% to 100%, compared to no NBC. The mesoscale SST structures associated with the difference between MOI and ECMWF induce MABL anomalies that are an order of magnitude weaker than those associated with the NBC SST-front. This adjustment is only statistically significant in areas where SST differences are greater than 0.3 °C. The dynamics of the MABL adjustment is investigated through the precipitable water and temperature budgets. The NBC increases the water loss by advection (1mm day1) and entrainment (2mm day1) and increases the gain of water by surface evaporation (2mm day1), while the SST difference between MOI and ECMWF increases the magnitudes of advection, entrainment and surface evaporation around 10%. Regarding the energy budget, the NBC forces warming by surface sensible heat flux, water vapor and cloud-induced infrared radiation flux (1K day1), which are partially balanced by negative horizontal advection. The SST difference between MOI and ECMWF alters the heat budget components by 10%.
巴巴多斯地区的特点是存在北巴西洋流(NBC),该洋流沿巴西海岸输送暖水,并形成 3 °C 1300 km-1 的大尺度东北-西南海温梯度。本研究探讨了海洋大气边界层(MABL)如何适应由 ECMWF 和墨卡托海洋国际(MOI)业务预报系统制作的 SST 分析所代表的 NBC SST 锋面。与无 NBC 相比,NBC SST 锋在 MABL 的表层浮力通量、海平面气压、海面风强度、带状风垂直切变(信风的主要成分)、液态水含量和可降水量方面产生了大尺度偶极子异常,范围从 50%到 100%不等。与 MOI 和 ECMWF 差异相关的中尺度 SST 结构引起的 MABL 异常比与 NBC SST 锋相关的异常要弱一个数量级。这种调整只有在海温差异大于 0.3 ℃的地区才有统计意义。通过可降水量和温度预算研究了人与生物圈影响的动态调整。NBC 增加了平流(≃1 毫米/天-1)和夹带(≃2 毫米/天-1)造成的水量损失,增加了地表蒸发(≃2 毫米/天-1)造成的水量增加,而 MOI 和 ECMWF 之间的 SST 差使平流、夹带和地表蒸发增加了约 10%。在能量收支方面,NBC 通过地表显热通量、水汽和云引起的红外辐射通量(≃1K/天-1)迫使气候变暖,并通过负水平平流部分抵消。MOI 和 ECMWF 之间的 SST 差异使热量收支成分改变了 10%。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis and prediction of mesoscale eddy kinetic energy variations in the Kuroshio extension 黑潮延伸段中尺度涡旋动能变化的分析与预测
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101497
Ma Xiaodong , Zhang Lei , Xu Weishuai , Li Qinghong , Li Maolin
The Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, a crucial area in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, exhibits eddy kinetic energy with various scales of periodicity. Understanding how to extract its characteristic features and analyze and predict their periodic correlations has become vital for studying the regulatory mechanisms of eddy kinetic energy in the KE region. This paper first introduces a mesoscale eddy hybrid identification algorithm based on the flow field vector and the closed flow field. Using this algorithm, we gather mesoscale eddy identification data from the KE region to extract the monthly average series of five typical features of the KE region. Subsequently, wavelet theory is applied to analyze the cycles of these main features, identifying the common cycles of the KE region as the primary focus for analyzing the vorticity kinetic energy. This analysis includes cycle correlations with globally recognized indices, and it predicts these correlations. Further analysis of the main characteristic cycles through wavelet theory reveals that the KE region's eddy kinetic energy is significantly influenced by solar activity over long periods and by the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction over shorter, interannual periods. Finally, this paper introduces a W-LSTM (Wavelet Decomposition based Long Short-term Memory Networks) prediction model based on wavelet decomposition for the KE region, covering January 2023–December 2023. The model demonstrates its effectiveness, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.2530 and a correlation coefficient of 0.8259 between the predicted data and the actual observations.
黑潮延伸区(KE)是西北太平洋的一个重要区域,其涡旋动能具有不同尺度的周期性。如何提取其特征并分析和预测其周期相关性,对研究 KE 区域涡旋动能的调控机制至关重要。本文首先介绍了一种基于流场矢量和闭合流场的中尺度涡混合识别算法。利用该算法,我们收集了 KE 区域的中尺度涡识别数据,提取了 KE 区域五个典型特征的月平均序列。随后,应用小波理论分析这些主要特征的周期,确定 KE 区域的共同周期作为分析涡度动能的主要重点。该分析包括与全球公认指数的周期相关性,并对这些相关性进行预测。通过小波理论对主要特征周期的进一步分析表明,KE 区域的涡度动能在长周期内受太阳活动的显著影响,在较短的年际周期内受北太平洋海洋-大气相互作用的显著影响。最后,本文介绍了一种基于小波分解的 W-LSTM(基于小波分解的长短期记忆网络)预测模型,该模型适用于 KE 地区 2023 年 1 月至 2023 年 12 月。该模型证明了其有效性,预测数据与实际观测数据之间的均方根误差(RMSE)为 0.2530,相关系数为 0.8259。
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引用次数: 0
The atmospheric Ekman flows with time-dependent eddy viscosity 具有随时间变化的涡流粘度的大气埃克曼流
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101496
Yi Guan
In this paper, we consider nonsteady modified atmospheric Ekman equations in the fplane approximation. We non-dimensionalize the equations of the motion in the fplane. For two types of time-dependent eddy viscosity, by means of Laplace transform, we get the explicit formulas, respectively.
在本文中,我们考虑了 f 平面近似的非稳态修正大气埃克曼方程。我们对 f 平面上的运动方程进行了非尺寸化处理。对于两种随时间变化的涡流粘度,通过拉普拉斯变换,我们分别得到了显式公式。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
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