Bet Hedging Is Not Sufficient to Explain Germination Patterns of a Winter Annual Plant.

IF 2.4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY American Naturalist Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-26 DOI:10.1086/726785

Gregor-Fausto Siegmund, David A Moeller, Vincent M Eckhart, Monica A Geber

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

AbstractBet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.

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打赌套期保值不足以解释冬季一年生植物的发芽模式。

摘要投注对冲由生活史策略组成，通过权衡当前和长期适应度来缓冲环境变异性。一年生植物的延迟发芽是一个典型的套期保值的例子，经常被用来解释低发芽率。我们研究了套期保值是否解释了20个冬季一年生植物克拉克兰(Clarkia xantiana ssp)群体中萌发率低和变化的原因。在这些年里，黄天娜的繁殖成功率有很大的差异。利用15年的人口统计监测和3年的田间发芽实验，我们评估了种子库的适合度结果，并比较了密度独立下注-对冲模型的最佳发芽分数与观察到的发芽分数。虽然在20个种群中有7个延迟发芽增加了长期适应度，但我们没有发现一致的证据来证明下注对冲或算术和几何平均适应度之间的预期权衡。最佳发芽分数比观察到的萌发分数高2 ~ 5倍，萌发分数在种群间的差异与整个生命周期的风险无关。我们的综合测试表明，下注套期保值不足以解释观察到的发芽模式。理解发芽策略的变化可能需要整合下注对冲与形成延迟发芽进化的互补力量。

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来源期刊

American Naturalist 环境科学-进化生物学

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

3.40%

发文量

194

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1867, The American Naturalist has maintained its position as one of the world''s premier peer-reviewed publications in ecology, evolution, and behavior research. Its goals are to publish articles that are of broad interest to the readership, pose new and significant problems, introduce novel subjects, develop conceptual unification, and change the way people think. AmNat emphasizes sophisticated methodologies and innovative theoretical syntheses—all in an effort to advance the knowledge of organic evolution and other broad biological principles.