When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12505
Jan Gromadzki, Katarzyna Sałach, Michał Brzeziński
{"title":"When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland","authors":"Jan Gromadzki,&nbsp;Katarzyna Sałach,&nbsp;Michał Brzeziński","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12505","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer programme on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference-in-differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of $100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One-third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the programme are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"91 361","pages":"320-345"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecca.12505","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer programme on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference-in-differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of $100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One-third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the programme are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
当民粹主义者兑现承诺时:波兰大规模现金转移计划的选举效果
我们估算了波兰推行大规模现金转移计划对执政党民粹主义支持率的影响。我们利用市一级每年人均收到的现金转移金额的差异,采用差异研究设计来研究转移支付的选举效应。我们的研究结果表明,人均 100 美元的现金转移额使执政党的得票率提高了近两个百分点。三分之一的新增选票来自新加入的选民,其余的选举收益则来自之前投票给其他政党的选民。该计划的影响是持续性的,因为我们看到,在该计划实施 7 年后,其影响程度并没有减弱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Supply shortages and inflation in Europe Cui prodest? A firm-level analysis of hiring credits Quantifying the Federal Reserve's objectives using a structural vector autoregressive model The effects of a disability employment quota when compliance is cheaper than defiance
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1