{"title":"Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Universal Transfer Programs: The Case of Korea","authors":"Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.1080/1226508x.2022.2145333","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p><p>In this paper, we analyse the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy response to it in Korea based on a version of a Macro-SIR model with labour friction, and with multiple types of jobs and households. Due to substantial uncertainty in the model and parameters that govern the interaction between epidemiological and macroeconomic developments, we rely on a prior predictive analysis when simulating the model. We find that the model successfully predicts an endogenous rise in the number of confirmed cases in the second half of 2020, and a sharp decline in economic activity followed by a temporary recovery caused by the government transfer program. It also turns out that low-wealth households are more damaged from the pandemic due to larger losses in terms of labour income. In addition, it is shown that the consumption multiplier of the universal transfer program is around 0.09.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508x.2022.2145333","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we analyse the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy response to it in Korea based on a version of a Macro-SIR model with labour friction, and with multiple types of jobs and households. Due to substantial uncertainty in the model and parameters that govern the interaction between epidemiological and macroeconomic developments, we rely on a prior predictive analysis when simulating the model. We find that the model successfully predicts an endogenous rise in the number of confirmed cases in the second half of 2020, and a sharp decline in economic activity followed by a temporary recovery caused by the government transfer program. It also turns out that low-wealth households are more damaged from the pandemic due to larger losses in terms of labour income. In addition, it is shown that the consumption multiplier of the universal transfer program is around 0.09.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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