{"title":"Climate envelope analyses suggests significant rearrangements in the distribution ranges of Central European tree species","authors":"Gábor Illés, Norbert Móricz","doi":"10.1186/s13595-022-01154-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Key message</h3><p>Climate envelope analysis of nine tree species shows that <i>Fagus sylvatica</i> L. and <i>Picea abies</i> H. Karst could lose 58% and 40% of their current distribution range. <i>Quercus pubescens</i> Willd and <i>Quercus cerris</i> L. may win areas equal with 47% and 43% of their current ranges. The ratio of poorly predictable areas increases by 105% in southern and south-eastern Europe.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Context</h3><p>Climate change requires adaptive forest management implementations. To achieve climate neutrality, we have to maintain and expand forest areas. Impact assessments have great importance.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Aims</h3><p>The study estimates the potential climate envelopes of nine European tree species for a past period (1961–1990) and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on the current species distribution.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>Climate envelopes were estimated simultaneously using the random forest method. Multi-resolution segmentation was used to determine the climatic characteristics of each species and their combinations. Models were limited to the geographical area within which the climatic conditions correspond to the climatic range of the training areas.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Results showed remarkable changes in the extent of geographic areas of all the investigated species’ climate envelopes. Many of the tree species of Central Europe could lose significant portions of their distribution range. Adhering to the shift in climate, these tree species shift further north as well as towards higher altitudes.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusion</h3><p>European forests face remarkable changes, and the results support climate envelope modelling as an important tool that provides guidelines for climate adaptation to identify threatened areas or to select source and destination areas for reproductive material.</p>","PeriodicalId":7994,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Forest Science","volume":"11 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Forest Science","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13595-022-01154-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Key message
Climate envelope analysis of nine tree species shows that Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies H. Karst could lose 58% and 40% of their current distribution range. Quercus pubescens Willd and Quercus cerris L. may win areas equal with 47% and 43% of their current ranges. The ratio of poorly predictable areas increases by 105% in southern and south-eastern Europe.
Context
Climate change requires adaptive forest management implementations. To achieve climate neutrality, we have to maintain and expand forest areas. Impact assessments have great importance.
Aims
The study estimates the potential climate envelopes of nine European tree species for a past period (1961–1990) and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on the current species distribution.
Methods
Climate envelopes were estimated simultaneously using the random forest method. Multi-resolution segmentation was used to determine the climatic characteristics of each species and their combinations. Models were limited to the geographical area within which the climatic conditions correspond to the climatic range of the training areas.
Results
Results showed remarkable changes in the extent of geographic areas of all the investigated species’ climate envelopes. Many of the tree species of Central Europe could lose significant portions of their distribution range. Adhering to the shift in climate, these tree species shift further north as well as towards higher altitudes.
Conclusion
European forests face remarkable changes, and the results support climate envelope modelling as an important tool that provides guidelines for climate adaptation to identify threatened areas or to select source and destination areas for reproductive material.
期刊介绍:
Annals of Forest Science is an official publication of the French National Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE)
-Up-to-date coverage of current developments and trends in forest research and forestry
Topics include ecology and ecophysiology, genetics and improvement, tree physiology, wood quality, and silviculture
-Formerly known as Annales des Sciences Forestières
-Biology of trees and associated organisms (symbionts, pathogens, pests)
-Forest dynamics and ecosystem processes under environmental or management drivers (ecology, genetics)
-Risks and disturbances affecting forest ecosystems (biology, ecology, economics)
-Forestry wood chain (tree breeding, forest management and productivity, ecosystem services, silviculture and plantation management)
-Wood sciences (relationships between wood structure and tree functions, and between forest management or environment and wood properties)