Climate envelope analyses suggests significant rearrangements in the distribution ranges of Central European tree species

IF 2.5 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Annals of Forest Science Pub Date : 2022-08-09 DOI:10.1186/s13595-022-01154-8
Gábor Illés, Norbert Móricz
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Key message

Climate envelope analysis of nine tree species shows that Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies H. Karst could lose 58% and 40% of their current distribution range. Quercus pubescens Willd and Quercus cerris L. may win areas equal with 47% and 43% of their current ranges. The ratio of poorly predictable areas increases by 105% in southern and south-eastern Europe.

Context

Climate change requires adaptive forest management implementations. To achieve climate neutrality, we have to maintain and expand forest areas. Impact assessments have great importance.

Aims

The study estimates the potential climate envelopes of nine European tree species for a past period (1961–1990) and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on the current species distribution.

Methods

Climate envelopes were estimated simultaneously using the random forest method. Multi-resolution segmentation was used to determine the climatic characteristics of each species and their combinations. Models were limited to the geographical area within which the climatic conditions correspond to the climatic range of the training areas.

Results

Results showed remarkable changes in the extent of geographic areas of all the investigated species’ climate envelopes. Many of the tree species of Central Europe could lose significant portions of their distribution range. Adhering to the shift in climate, these tree species shift further north as well as towards higher altitudes.

Conclusion

European forests face remarkable changes, and the results support climate envelope modelling as an important tool that provides guidelines for climate adaptation to identify threatened areas or to select source and destination areas for reproductive material.

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气候包络分析表明中欧树种分布范围有重大的重新安排
对9种树种的气候包膜分析表明,森林Fagus sylvatica L.和云杉(Picea abies H. Karst)将分别失去58%和40%的现有分布范围。野生短毛栎和cerris栎可能会赢得相当于其现有范围47%和43%的地区。在南欧和东南欧,难以预测地区的比例增加了105%。气候变化要求实施适应性森林管理。为了实现气候中和,我们必须保持和扩大森林面积。影响评估非常重要。本研究以当前树种分布为基础,估算了两种排放情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下9种欧洲树种过去时期(1961-1990)和未来三个时期(2011-2040、2041-2070、2071-2100)的潜在气候包膜。方法采用随机森林法同时估算气候包络。采用多分辨率分割法确定各树种及其组合的气候特征。模型仅限于气候条件与训练地区的气候范围相对应的地理区域。结果所有被调查物种气候包络的地理区域范围变化显著。中欧的许多树种可能会失去其分布范围的很大一部分。随着气候的变化,这些树种向更北的地方以及更高的海拔转移。结论欧洲森林面临着显著的变化,气候包络度模型可作为气候适应的重要工具,为识别受威胁地区或选择生殖物质的来源和目的地提供指导。
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来源期刊
Annals of Forest Science
Annals of Forest Science 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
3.30%
发文量
45
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Annals of Forest Science is an official publication of the French National Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE) -Up-to-date coverage of current developments and trends in forest research and forestry Topics include ecology and ecophysiology, genetics and improvement, tree physiology, wood quality, and silviculture -Formerly known as Annales des Sciences Forestières -Biology of trees and associated organisms (symbionts, pathogens, pests) -Forest dynamics and ecosystem processes under environmental or management drivers (ecology, genetics) -Risks and disturbances affecting forest ecosystems (biology, ecology, economics) -Forestry wood chain (tree breeding, forest management and productivity, ecosystem services, silviculture and plantation management) -Wood sciences (relationships between wood structure and tree functions, and between forest management or environment and wood properties)
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