{"title":"Convergence of opinions","authors":"Vladimir Vovk","doi":"arxiv-2312.02033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper establishes a game-theoretic version of the classical\nBlackwell-Dubins result. We consider two forecasters who at each step issue\nprobability forecasts for the infinite future. Our result says that either at\nleast one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will\nconverge in total variation.","PeriodicalId":501330,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory","volume":"88 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.02033","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper establishes a game-theoretic version of the classical
Blackwell-Dubins result. We consider two forecasters who at each step issue
probability forecasts for the infinite future. Our result says that either at
least one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will
converge in total variation.
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