Using fuzzy logic to compare species distribution models developed on the basis of expert knowledge and sampling records

Abstract

Experts use knowledge to infer the distribution of species based on fuzzy logical assumptions about the relationship between species and the environment. Thus, expert knowledge is amenable to fuzzy logic modelling, which give to propositions a continuous truth value between 0 and 1. In species distribution modelling, fuzzy logic may also be used to model, from a number of records, the degree to which conditions are favourable to the occurrence of a species. Therefore, fuzzy logic operations can be used to compare and combine models based on expert knowledge and species records. Here, we applied fuzzy logic modelling to the distribution of amphibians in Uruguay as inferred from expert knowledge and from observed records to infer favourable locations, with favourability being the commensurable unit for both kinds of data sources. We compared the results for threatened species, species considered by experts to be ubiquitous, and non-threatened, non-ubiquitous species. We calculated the fuzzy intersection of models based on both knowledge sources to obtain a unified prediction of favourable locations. Models based on expert knowledge involved a larger number of variables and were less affected by sampling bias. Models based on experts had the same overprediction rate for the three types of species, whereas models based on species records had a lower prediction rate for ubiquitous species. Models based on expert knowledge performed equally as well or better than corresponding models based on species records for threatened species, even when they had to discriminate and classify the same set of records used to build the models based on species records. For threatened species, expert models predicted more restrictive favourable territories than those predicted based on records. Observed records generated the best-fitted models for non-threatened non-ubiquitous species, and ubiquitous species. Fuzzy modelling permitted the objective comparison of the potential of expert knowledge and incomplete distribution records to infer the territories favourable for different species. Distribution of threatened species was able to be better explained by subjective expert knowledge, while for generalist species models based on observed data were more accurate. These results have implications for the correct use of expert knowledge in conservation planning.