Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality

IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI:10.3982/ECTA20787
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Tristan Reed
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Abstract

What is the pathway to development in a world marked by rising economic nationalism and less international integration? This paper answers this question within a framework that emphasizes the role of demand-side constraints on national development, which is identified with sustained poverty reduction. In this framework, development is linked to the adoption of an increasing returns to scale technology by imperfectly competitive firms that need to pay the fixed setup cost of switching to that technology. Sustained poverty reduction is measured as a continuous decline in the share of the population living below $1.90/day purchasing power parity in 2011 U.S. dollars over a five-year period. This outcome is affected in a statistically significant and economically meaningful way by domestic market size, which is measured as a function of the income distribution, and international market size, which is measured as a function of legally-binding provisions to international trade agreements, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization, and 279 preferential trade agreements. Counterfactual estimates suggest that, in the absence of international integration, the average resident of a low- or lower-middle-income country does not live in a market large enough to experience sustained poverty reduction. Domestic redistribution targeted towards generating a larger middle class can partially compensate for the lack of an international market.

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主席致辞:发展中的需求方制约因素。市场规模、贸易和(不)平等的作用
在一个经济民族主义抬头、国际一体化程度降低的世界中,发展之路该怎么走?本文在一个框架内回答了这一问题,该框架强调需求方制约因素对国家发展的作用,而国家发展与持续减贫是相辅相成的。在这一框架中,发展与不完全竞争企业采用规模收益递增技术有关,这些企业需要支付转用该技术的固定设置成本。持续减贫的衡量标准是,以 2011 年美元购买力平价计算,生活在每天 1.90 美元以下的人口比例在五年内持续下降。这一结果受国内市场规模和国际市场规模的影响,国内市场规模是收入分配的函数,而国际市场规模则是国际贸易协定(包括关税及贸易总协定、世界贸易组织和 279 项优惠贸易协定)中具有法律约束力条款的函数。反事实估计表明,在没有国际一体化的情况下,低收入或中低收入国家的普通居民所生活的市场规模不足以实现持续减贫。以扩大中产阶级为目标的国内再分配可以部分弥补国际市场的不足。
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来源期刊
Econometrica
Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
3.30%
发文量
75
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.
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