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Backmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932BM
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引用次数: 0
On (Constrained) Efficiency of Strategy-Proof Random Assignment
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22762
Christian Basteck, Lars Ehlers

We study random assignment of indivisible objects among a set of agents, when each agent is to receive one object and has strict preferences over the objects. Random Serial Dictatorship (RSD) satisfies equal treatment of equals, ex post efficiency, and strategy-proofness. Answering a longstanding open question, we show that RSD is not characterized by those properties—there are other mechanisms satisfying equal treatment of equals, ex post efficiency, and strategy-proofness which are not welfare-equivalent to RSD. On the other hand, we show that RSD is not Pareto dominated by any mechanism that is (i) strategy-proof and (ii) boundedly invariant. Moreover, the same holds for all mechanisms that are ex post efficient, strategy-proof, and boundedly invariant: no such mechanism is dominated by any other mechanism that is strategy-proof and boundedly invariant.

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引用次数: 0
A Quest for Knowledge
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22144
Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider

Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step-by-step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.

是否总是需要更多新颖的研究?我们建立了一个模型,在这个模型中,知识影响着社会政策,并引导着探索发现。研究人员会选择一个问题,并决定如何深入研究这个问题。问题的新颖性决定了发现其答案的价值和难度。我们的研究表明,发现的收益与新颖性是非单调的。随着时间的推移,知识会内生地逐步扩展。通过动态外部性,"登月计划"--对新颖性高于近视最优的问题进行研究--可以改善知识的演进。登月计划会引发研究周期,在这个周期中,后续研究人员会将登月计划与之前的知识联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22028
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver

We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.

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引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932FM
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Candidate Valence
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20496
Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada

We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage-point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.

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引用次数: 0
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22923
Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu

We propose two general equilibrium models, quota equilibrium, and emission tax equilibrium. Government specifies quotas or taxes on emissions, and then refrains from further action. All results remain valid regardless of how government chooses its emissions target. Quota equilibrium exists; the allocation of emission property rights impacts the distribution of welfare. If the only externality arises from total net emissions, quota equilibrium is Pareto optimal among all feasible outcomes with the same total net emissions. For certain tax rates, emission tax equilibrium may not exist. Every quota equilibrium can be realized as an emission tax equilibrium and vice versa. However, different quota prices may arise in equilibrium from a single quota, and different emission levels may arise in equilibrium from a single tax rate. This leads to inequivalence between quota and emission tax equilibria.

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引用次数: 0
Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs and the Le Chatelier Principle
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22841
Eddie Dekel, John K.-H. Quah, Ludvig Sinander

We develop a theory of monotone comparative statics for models with adjustment costs. We show that comparative-statics conclusions may be drawn under the usual ordinal complementarity assumptions on the objective function, assuming very little about costs: only a mild monotonicity condition is required. We use this insight to prove a general Le Chatelier principle: under the ordinal complementarity assumptions, if short-run adjustment is subject to a monotone cost, then the long-run response to a shock is greater than the short-run response. We extend these results to a fully dynamic model of adjustment over time: the Le Chatelier principle remains valid, and under slightly stronger assumptions, optimal adjustment follows a monotone path. We apply our results to models of saving, production, pricing, labor supply, and investment.

我们为有调整成本的模型提出了一种单调比较静态理论。我们表明,在目标函数的通常序互补性假设下,只需对成本作很少的假设:只需一个温和的单调性条件,就可以得出比较静态结论。我们利用这一洞察力证明了一般的勒沙特利埃原理:在序互补性假设下,如果短期调整受单调成本的影响,那么对冲击的长期响应大于短期响应。我们将这些结果扩展到随时间调整的完全动态模型:勒沙特列尔原理仍然有效,而且在稍强的假设条件下,最优调整遵循单调路径。我们将结果应用于储蓄、生产、定价、劳动力供给和投资模型。
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引用次数: 0
2024 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932EF
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引用次数: 0
A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data”
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21896
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Thomas Mikosch, Anders Rahbek, Frederik Vilandt

Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by-product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.

基于 GARCH 文献,Engle 和 Russell(1998 年)建立了自回归条件持续时间(ACD)模型的 QMLE 一致性和渐近正态性,假设持续时间具有严格的静止性和遍历性。我们利用基于更新过程理论的新颖论证,证明了在持续时间具有有限期望这一更高要求下,他们的结果是成立的。然而,我们证明,在持续时间具有静止性和遍历性的假设条件下,情况并非总是如此。具体来说,我们提供了一个反例,在这个反例中,MLE 是渐近混合正态分布,收敛速度比通常情况下慢得多。ACD 与 GARCH 渐进式的主要区别在于,前者必须考虑到给定时间跨度内的持续时间数量是随机的。作为副产品,我们提出了一个新的 Lemma,可用于分析观测值数量随机时极值估计器的渐近特性。
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引用次数: 0
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