Long-Period Changes in the Frequency of Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere Temperate Latitudes

IF 0.9 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI:10.1134/s0001433823140062

M. Yu. Bardin, T. V. Platova, O. F. Samokhina

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Abstract

Fluctuations in the frequency of cyclones in various regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperate latitudes on time scales of the order of decades are analyzed in connection with changes in the indices of the leading modes of atmospheric circulation and changes in the zonal transport intensity in individual latitudinal zones. The possible manifestation in cyclone statistics of the well-known thesis about the displacement of storm tracks during warming in the direction of high latitudes is discussed. It is shown that, in general, for the NH temperate latitudes in winter, long-period changes in the frequency of cyclones are irregular fluctuations with scales of several decades, without a visible trend. In summer, the interdecade changes are weakly expressed, but there is a noticeable trend that is significant at the 5% level. In the northern and southern parts of the North Atlantic (NA) in winter, changes in frequency contain significant antiphase components with a period of about 10 years, which correlate well with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (the correlation is positive in the northern half; the coefficients are significant at the 0.1% level). Long-period changes in the frequency of cyclones in the North Pacific are generally similar to (but in the opposite phase of) changes in the North Pacific Index by Trenberth and Hurrell. Based on the analysis of a linear regression model, it was found that a significant contribution to changes in the frequency of cyclones in the regions of northern Europe–Western Siberia and the north of ER (ER) in the winter season was made by the circulation modes of the Atlantic–European sector: SCAND, NAO, East Atlantic mode EAM, EAWR (but the EAWR mode contribution is insignificant for the north of Europe–Western Siberia). In summer, for the north of ER and Western Siberia, a significant contribution was made by the SCAND and EAWR circulation modes. An analysis of concomitant changes in zonal wind speed at 700 hPa in the area of the main storm tracks in winter revealed that, for the hemisphere as a whole (0°–360°) in the latitude zone 45°–55° N, as well as in the zone 55°–65° N, changes in zonal wind are determined mainly by changes in the frequency of cyclones in the northern part of the NA and closely follow changes in the NAO. However, in more southern latitudes (35°–45° N), changes in the hemispheric zonal wind are observed, similar to long-period changes in the North Pacific Index in antiphase, the nature of which is unclear (since they do not appear in the Pacific sector itself). The shift of storm tracks to higher latitudes, expected with warming, is observed only for the northern branch of the Atlantic storm track during periods of NAO growth between 1960 and the mid-1990s and after 2010. In general, for the period since 1976, there has been an insignificant trend of about 0.07° latitude per decade.

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北半球温带纬度气旋频率的长周期变化

摘要分析了北半球温带纬度各地区气旋发生频率在数十年时间尺度上的波动，以及大气环流主要模式指数的变化和各纬度地带地带性输送强度的变化。讨论了众所周知的关于气候变暖时风暴轨迹向高纬度方向移动的理论在气旋统计中的可能表现。研究表明，一般来说，在北半球温带纬度的冬季，气旋频率的长周期变化是几十年尺度的不规则波动，没有明显的趋势。在夏季，十年间的变化微弱，但有一个明显的趋势，在 5%的水平上显著。在北大西洋北部和南部的冬季，频率变化包含明显的反相成分，周期约为 10 年，与北大西洋涛动指数的变化有很好的相关性（北半部的相关性为正，系数在 0.1%的水平上显著）。北太平洋气旋频率的长周期变化与特伦伯斯和赫雷尔的北太平洋指数变化基本相似（但相位相反）。根据线性回归模型分析发现，大西洋-欧洲扇区的环流模式对冬季北欧-西西伯利亚和 ER 北部地区气旋发生频率的变化有重要影响：SCAND、NAO、东大西洋模式 EAM、EAWR（但 EAWR 模式对欧洲北部-西西伯利亚的影响不大）。夏季，在欧洲北部和西西伯利亚西部，SCAND 和 EAWR 环流模式的贡献很大。对冬季主要风暴轨迹区域 700 hPa 的带状风速随之变化的分析表明，就整个半球（0°-360°）而言，在北纬 45°-55°以及北纬 55°-65°区域，带状风速的变化主要由北大西洋北部气旋频率的变化决定，并紧随北大西洋环流的变化。然而，在更南的纬度（北纬 35°-45°），观察到半球地带风的变化，类似于北太平洋指数反相的长周期变化，其性质尚不清楚（因为它们本身并不出现在太平洋扇区）。在 1960 年至 1990 年代中期和 2010 年之后的北大西洋环流增加期间，仅在大西洋风暴轨迹的北部分支观察到风暴轨迹向高纬度移动的现象，这是气候变暖的预期结果。总体而言，自 1976 年以来，每十年纬度移动约 0.07°，趋势不明显。

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来源期刊

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics is a journal that publishes original scientific research and review articles on vital issues in the physics of the Earth’s atmosphere and hydrosphere and climate theory. The journal presents results of recent studies of physical processes in the atmosphere and ocean that control climate, weather, and their changes. These studies have possible practical applications. The journal also gives room to the discussion of results obtained in theoretical and experimental studies in various fields of oceanic and atmospheric physics, such as the dynamics of gas and water media, interaction of the atmosphere with the ocean and land surfaces, turbulence theory, heat balance and radiation processes, remote sensing and optics of both media, natural and man-induced climate changes, and the state of the atmosphere and ocean. The journal publishes papers on research techniques used in both media, current scientific information on domestic and foreign events in the physics of the atmosphere and ocean.