The infrastructure cost of permafrost degradation for the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Warming and resulting degradation of near-surface permafrost in cold regions across the globe has and will continue to lead to a series of hazards. These include land subsidence and weakening of the substrate’s bearing capacity, thus threatening infrastructure and the socioeconomics in permafrost regions. These potential hazards shorten the lifespan of infrastructure, increase the cost of infrastructure maintenance and replacement, which is of great importance to a variety of stakeholders. In Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions, more than 34% of the population and 44% of the infrastructure will be at high risk by the end of this century. Due to the degradation of permafrost, infrastructure will require an additional investment of approximately $205–572 billion to maintain the operation of engineering and service infrastructure in 2085, based on projections with a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.