Global Environmental Change最新文献

This study examines how communities of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, recovered from the extreme wildfire event of 2019–2020 (i.e., the Black Summer fires). Using monthly night-time radiance as an indicator of economic activity in a geographic area (i.e., a mesh block) from January 2017 to June 2021, I conducted a spatio-temporal and socio-economic analysis of economic recovery after the 2019–2020 wildfires using the difference-in-differences method. This is the first study to examine the intersectional role of space with time and socio-economic characteristics for extreme wildfire recovery. The findings reveal that wildfire-affected locations had about 0.038σ and 0.026σ lower night-time radiance in major cities and rural hinterlands (i.e., inner regions), respectively, than the unaffected areas. These numbers translate to approximately 30% reduction in economic activities in both areas. The findings remain consistent when using Facebook’s movement range data. The pace of recovery varied spatially across time and socio-economic groups. In rural hinterlands of NSW, wildfire-affected communities, both poor and non-poor, followed a slower recovery trajectory than wildfire-affected city dwellers. In major cities, the economic recovery of poor communities lagged behind non-poor communities. Accounting for such spatial, temporal and socio-economic heterogeneity in the natural hazard recovery process can support the design of equitable wildfire risk reduction and management strategies and programs. If unaddressed, gaps in wildfire recovery can increase location and economic group specific vulnerabilities to future wildfires. Note that nightlights are not a good proxy for economic activity in heavily forested remote and rural areas; thus limiting the application of the use of high frequency satellite data for wildfire recovery analysis only in major cities and rural hinterlands.

Carbon inequality is the gap in carbon footprints between the rich and the poor, reflecting an uneven distribution of wealth and mitigation responsibility. Whilst much is known about the level of inequality surrounding responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, little is known about the evolution in carbon inequality and how the carbon footprints of socio-economic groups have developed over time. Inequality can be reduced either by improving the living standards of the poor or by reducing the overconsumption of the rich, but the choice has very different implications for climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the carbon footprints of income quintile groups for major 43 economies from 2005 to 2015. We find that most developed economies had declining carbon footprints but expanding carbon inequality, whereas most developing economies had rising footprints but divergent trends in carbon inequality. The top income group in developing economies grew fastest, with its carbon footprint surpassing the top group in developed economies in 2014. Developments are driven by a reduction in GHG intensity in all regions, which is partly offset by income growth in developed countries but more than offset by the rapid growth in selected emerging economies. The top income group in developed economies has achieved the least progress in climate change mitigation, in terms of decline rate, showing resistance of the rich. It shows mitigation efforts could raise carbon inequality. We highlight the necessity of raising the living standard of the poor and consistent mitigation effort is the core of achieving two targets.

This research has applied an integrated norms model using place attachment, anti-littering descriptive and injunctive norms, and anti-littering personal norms to assess anti-littering behavioral intentions in a developing country. The research uses place attachment as a moderating factor to understand the influence of social norms on anti-littering behavioral intentions which has not previously been explored in detail. After a pre-test to validate scales, a survey was conducted among visitors at a beach in Pakistan. This main survey was performed among a sample of 634 respondents to assess direct, mediated, and conditional indirect effect relationships using structural equation modelling and PROCESS model 7. Place attachment was found to strengthen the effect of descriptive norms. The influence of both social norms (i.e., descriptive and injunctive) on anti-littering behavior was only consistent when mediated by personal norms, suggesting the importance of individuals’ own responsibility. Thus, it appears that role of both place attachment and personal norms are vital in discouraging littering. This perspective has important implications because littering in public places such as beaches has been determined as a substantial environmental problem requiring solutions focused on individuals.

The majority of the world’s land is held in customary tenure systems, often with overlapping claims. Designing effective policy to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation requires understanding land management choices within these systems. Using a nation-wide random sample of over 300,000 hectares of forested land in Uganda from 2000 to 2019, we examine how deforestation trends across a system of overlapping rights, known as mailo land tenure, change in response to legal amendments intended to increase land tenure security. Graphical analysis reveals that mailo land has always had higher deforestation rates, compared to private and customary land, which increased relative to other tenure systems beginning in 2010 when a law was passed to protect tenants on mailo land. Statistical analysis controlling for spatial and time effects shows that prior to 2010, trends across tenure systems were similar. After 2010, deforestation increased significantly on land with overlapping rights and then began to decrease after 2017 relative to rates on customary or fully privatized land. We hypothesize that the uptick in deforestation resulted from unintended, increased uncertainty generated by the 2010 law, which changed owner/tenant relations on land with overlapping rights. The decrease in deforestation rates after 2017 was consistent with increased tenure security from an acceleration in the uptake of permanent certificates of occupancy. These findings demonstrate that outcomes under systems of overlapping rights can be destabilized by well-intentioned reform, and that securing tenant rights can reduce deforestation.

Disasters occurring in the wake of extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate and anthropogenic changes and require urgent responses under uncertain and dynamic conditions. In these situations, multi-agency collaboration becomes integral to an effective response due to the need to coordinate actions across geographical scales, levels of authority and sectors of society. Consequently there is a need for more knowledge on how to enhance the effectiveness of collaborations in response to disasters. In this study we utilize extremely rare and comprehensive data on multi-stakeholder collaboration during the acute phase of two catastrophic wildfires to investigate performance in relation to four collaboration challenges: sharing information, conflict resolution, reaching agreement i.e. mutual understanding and commitment, on goals and working-methods, and coordinating activities. Our results suggest that agreement between collaborating actors is more important to individual performance than the coordination of activities, and that it is only when agreement exists that the ability to coordinate activities becomes highly important. This study allows, for the first time, insights into the detailed nuances of collaboration among individuals during rapidly evolving disaster situations. Importantly, our analysis suggests that focusing on enhancing agreement in the wake of disasters—and not only on improving coordination—could reduce the devastating effects that disasters have on people and ecosystems.

Deltas play a critical role in the ambition to achieve global sustainable development given their relatively large shares in population and productive croplands, as well as their precarious low-lying position between upstream river basin development and rising seas. The large pressures on these systems risk undermining the persistence of delta societies, economies, and ecosystems. We analyse possible future development in 49 deltas around the globe under the Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways until 2100. Population density, urban fraction, and total and irrigated cropland fraction are three to twelve times greater in these deltas, on average, than in the rest of the world. Maximum river water discharges are projected to increase by 11–33 % and river sediment discharges are projected to decrease 26–37 % on average, depending on the scenario. Regional sea-level rise reaches almost 1.0 m by 2100 for certain deltas in the worst-case scenario, increasing to almost 2.0 m of relative rise considering land subsidence. Extreme sea levels could be much higher still—reaching over 4.0 m by 2100 for six of the 49 deltas analysed. Socio-economic conditions to support adaptation are the weakest among deltas with the greatest pressures, compounding the challenge of sustainable development. Asian and African deltas stand out as having heightened socio-economic challenges—huge population and land use pressures in most Asian deltas and the Nile delta; low capacity for adaptation in most African deltas and the Irrawaddy delta. Although, deltas in other parts of the world are not immune from these and other pressures, either. Because of unique pressures and processes operating in deltas, as in other “hotspots” such as small islands, mountains, and semi-arid areas, we recommend greater consideration and conceptualisation of environmental processes in global sustainable development agendas and in the Integrated Assessment Models used to guide global policy.

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are key actors in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Their aggregate emissions are significant, and they are disproportionately affected by climate impacts, including extreme weather events. SMEs also play a vital role in shaping the environmental behaviours of individuals, communities, and other businesses. However, these organisations have been largely neglected by climate policies across all levels of government. A series of global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Europe and the Middle East, and energy price spikes, have posed an existential threat to millions of SMEs, while also acting as a catalyst for the reconfiguration of the social contract between business, society and the state, both temporary and more long-term. In this article, we make the case for increased focus on the governance of SME decarbonisation to address this turbulent context. We outline key challenges facing public policymakers and other governance actors, compare strategic options, identify evidence gaps that hinder effective interventions, and highlight implications for research. In doing so we set out key elements of a renewed social contract for business, society and state relations.

The study of the impacts and drivers of climate change adaptation should consider gender (in)equality and women’s participation, as they both play pivotal roles. However, research on gender aspects of climate change adaptation has been limited. This study assesses gender dimensions of adaptation to climate change and determinants of smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies in Adwa district, Tigray, Ethiopia. Drawing on household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions carried out in 2017, the study found that climate change had more severe impacts on female-headed households than on male-headed households. This was due to women’s lack of resource access and control, lack of income and technology use, and high dependence on natural resources. Major climate change adaptation measures identified in the study area included adjustment of planting dates, crop varieties, water harvesting practices, soil and water conservation, irrigation, seasonal migration, diversifying income sources, and agricultural inputs. Rates and extent of adaptation varied by gender. As indicated by multivariate probit analysis, major determinants of farmers’ adaptation choices included agro-ecology; gender, age, education, family size, farm size, non-farm income, livestock; access to information, extension services, and credit; and distance to market center. Study findings suggest that policymakers should consider differences between female- and male-headed families in their access to land, information, income, extension services, technologies, and other resources. By doing so, climate change adaptation practices may be broadened and sustainable development promoted.