Global Environmental Change最新文献

Mapping priority and potential tranquility areas in China using hybrid audio-visual GIS modeling for environment decision making 利用混合视听GIS模型进行环境决策，绘制中国的优先区域和潜在宁静区

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103117

Xiaoqing Xu , Feiran Hu , Ning Zou , Chumeng Yu , Yue Cao , Xueyao Sun , Zuyao Li , Jialai Meng , Jian Kang

The coupling of visual and auditory tranquility on a national scale has garnered attention worldwide. However, research on the spatial distributions in visual and audio tranquility across China and the implications of these differences for the perceptions and management of overall tranquility in scarce. Therefore, this study examined the spatial distribution of visual and auditory tranquility across China and its variations, spatial differences between visual and auditory tranquility, and the relationship between tranquility patterns and geographic zoning. This study used audio-visual geographic information system modeling and public consultations employing multi-criteria decision-making techniques to develop a comprehensive map of visual and auditory tranquility. The results revealed a correlation between tranquility, urban development, and environmental indicators. Additionally, this research established a framework to mapping tranquility, supplementing existing knowledge, and set baseline standards for future environment conservation decision making of tranquil protected lands and regional governance systems in China. The findings highlight priority and potential development areas for tranquility, providing guidance for future territorial spatial planning and regional. The research ideas, methods, and techniques are also applicable to the study of tranquil areas at the global scale.

在全国范围内，视觉和听觉的宁静耦合引起了全世界的关注。然而，中国城市视听宁静的空间分布及其差异对城市整体宁静感知和管理的启示研究较少。因此，本研究考察了中国视觉和听觉宁静的空间分布及其变化，视觉和听觉宁静的空间差异，以及宁静模式与地理区划的关系。本研究采用视听地理信息系统建模和公众咨询，采用多标准决策技术，开发了视觉和听觉宁静的综合地图。结果揭示了宁静、城市发展和环境指标之间的相关性。此外，本研究还建立了宁静地图的框架，补充了现有的知识，并为未来中国宁静保护区的环境保护决策和区域治理体系设定了基准标准。研究结果强调了宁静的优先和潜在发展领域，为未来的领土空间规划和区域规划提供了指导。研究思路、方法和技术同样适用于全球范围内的宁静区研究。

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引用次数: 0

Bi-decadal changes in selected ecosystem services and their integrated drivers in East Africa 东非部分生态系统服务的双年代际变化及其综合驱动因素

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103115

Edovia Dufatanye Umwali , Alain Isabwe , Naomie M. Kayitesi , Xi Chen

Ecosystem services are fundamental to sustaining life and livelihoods, yet they face increasing threats, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the temporal dynamics of key ecosystem services, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water yield, across five East African countries over the past two decades, while also exploring their drivers. Spatially explicit models were developed using the integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and random forest models (70% training, 30% testing; 500 trees) to identify ecosystem service responses to a variety of drivers, including climate, proximity, soil, Land Use Land Cover Change (LUCC), socioeconomic, and topographic factors. Results revealed distinct patterns in ecosystem service dynamics: (1) Carbon storage remained relatively stable, with 90.9% of the area maintaining consistent levels in 2000–2010, slightly increasing to 91.6% in 2010–2020; (2) Habitat quality showed more variability, but trended positively, with improvements from 2000 to 2010, and over 95% of the area remaining stable in the following decade. (3) In contrast, water yield exhibited the most significant fluctuations, with 52.6% of the area experienced a decline and 43.7% an increase in 2000–2010, followed by a dramatic 89.1% increase in 2010–2020. (4) The random forest models produced robust results (R² = 0.75–––0.96) across all three periods (2000, 2010, and 2020) for each ecosystem service. (5) Climate variables, particularly precipitation and temperature, emerged as the strongest drivers of water yield, while slope and socioeconomic factors primarily influenced carbon storage. (6) Socioeconomic factors were also most influential in shaping habitat quality. These findings offer critical insights for environmental management and policy, providing a basis for sustainable development strategies as the region works toward achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

生态系统服务是维持生命和生计的基础，但面临越来越多的威胁，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲。本研究调查了过去二十年来东非五个国家的关键生态系统服务、碳储量、栖息地质量和水量的时间动态，同时也探讨了它们的驱动因素。利用综合生态系统服务和权衡评估（InVEST）和随机森林模型（70%训练，30%测试；500棵树）开发空间明确模型，以确定生态系统服务对各种驱动因素的响应，包括气候、邻近、土壤、土地利用、土地覆盖变化（LUCC）、社会经济和地形因素。结果表明：①碳储量保持相对稳定，2000-2010年有90.9%的面积保持稳定，2010-2020年略有上升至91.6%；(2) 2000 - 2010年，生境质量表现出较强的变异性，但总体呈上升趋势，此后10年95%以上的面积保持稳定。(3)产水量变化最为显著，2000-2010年有52.6%的面积下降，43.7%的面积增加，2010-2020年有89.1%的面积急剧增加。(4)在2000年、2010年和2020年三个时期，随机森林模型对每种生态系统服务都产生了稳健的结果（R2 = 0.75—0.96）。(5)气候变量（尤其是降水和温度）是产水量的最大驱动因素，而坡度和社会经济因素主要影响碳储量。(6)社会经济因素对生境质量的影响最大。这些发现为环境管理和政策提供了重要见解，为该地区实现2030年可持续发展目标的可持续发展战略提供了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping China’s non-grain governance: pathways to global agricultural sustainability 绘制中国非粮食治理：全球农业可持续发展之路

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103116

Wenbo Zhang , Xiaoliang Hu , Hongbo Li , Xiaolin Zhang , Changchun Huang , Zhaoyuan Yu , Shaobin Li , Zengkai Zhang , Libang Ma , Linwang Yuan

To address multiple challenges including food security, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation, China is prioritizing non-grain governance (NGG) as a key strategy, yet lacks an actionable governance framework. This paper proposes an integrated approach combining non-grain level (NGL) control (Measure 1) with crop spatial reallocation (Measure 2), thereby establishing a three-tier governance framework for non-grain conversion (NGC) at the “national-agricultural region-county levels”. Based on China’s 2020 grain production capacity, we project pathways to meet grain demand under 2030 population scenarios and evaluate the impacts of three policy scenarios on sustainable agricultural development. Simulation results for 2020–2030 show that, compared to Scenario 1 (no measure 1 & no measure 2 → a 25.56% increase in imports), Scenario 2 (no measure 1 & with measure 2 → partial imports) could fulfill up to 84% of food demand through optimized crop spatial allocation. This import reduction would save approximately 16.43% of global arable land use, 16.59% of global water consumption, 16.36% of global energy use, and 15.80% of global carbon emissions associated with trade. Scenario 3 (with measure 1 & with measure 2 → self-sufficiency) could achieve full grain self-sufficiency by constraining the non-grain level to ≤ 28% through integrated control and spatial optimization, thereby avoiding additional global resource consumption. However, this scenario would increase domestic water and energy stress and constrain farmers’ net income. For China’s nine major agricultural regions and their 2,668 counties, the management focus should shift from merely monitoring the surface-level rate of farmland conversion to non-grain uses, to a more critical assessment of its tangible impacts on grain production and environmental pollution. Accordingly, stringent protection measures are required, particularly for counties within core production areas such as the Northeast China Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The proposed three-tier governance system offers a scalable framework for addressing the intertwined challenges of food security, resource conservation, and global ecological responsibilities.

为了应对包括粮食安全、资源短缺和环境恶化在内的多重挑战，中国将非粮食治理作为一项关键战略，但缺乏可操作的治理框架。本文提出将非粮食水平控制（测度1）与作物空间再配置（测度2）相结合的综合治理方法，构建“国家-农业区-县域”非粮食转化三层治理框架。以中国2020年粮食生产能力为基础，预测了2030年人口情景下满足粮食需求的路径，并评估了三种政策情景对农业可持续发展的影响。2020-2030年的模拟结果表明，与情景1（不采取措施1和不采取措施2→进口增加25.56%）相比，情景2（不采取措施1和采取措施2→部分进口）可以通过优化作物空间配置满足高达84%的粮食需求。减少进口将节约约16.43%的全球耕地，16.59%的全球水资源消耗，16.36%的全球能源消耗，15.80%的全球与贸易相关的碳排放。方案3（措施1 &措施2→自给）通过综合控制和空间优化，将非粮食水平控制在≤28%，实现粮食完全自给，避免了额外的全球资源消耗。然而，这种情况将增加国内的水和能源压力，并限制农民的净收入。对于中国的九个主要农业区及其2668个县来说，管理的重点应该从仅仅监测耕地非粮食利用的表面率，转向对其对粮食生产和环境污染的实际影响进行更严格的评估。因此，需要采取严格的保护措施，特别是对东北平原和黄淮海平原等核心产区的县。提出的三层治理体系为解决粮食安全、资源保护和全球生态责任等相互交织的挑战提供了一个可扩展的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Compound dry-and-hot extremes exacerbate income inequality and poverty in Europe 干旱和炎热的复合极端加剧了欧洲的收入不平等和贫困

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106

Jessie Ruth Schleypen , Fahad Saeed , Anne Zimmer , Tilman Brück

Heat waves and droughts are each highly damaging to people’s incomes, but little is known of the joint impact on household welfare when these events occur simultaneously. We combine European household level survey data from 2004 to 2022 with high resolution temperature and drought data in a fixed effects econometric regression to investigate the change in household income and risk of poverty due to heat waves, droughts, and compound dry-and-hot extremes. We find that the average reduction in annual household income was 0.8 percentage points larger when heat waves coincided with a drought month, compared to when heat waves occurred alone. The compound climate impact was stronger for poorer households, with household in the poorest income quintile experiencing a reduction in average household income from the combined impacts of heatwave and drought of 2.7 percentage points larger than the households in the richest income quintile. We estimate that heat waves and droughts increased the at-risk-of-poverty (AROP) rate in Europe by 1.1 percentage points or an additional 5.6 million persons for 2004–2022 on average. Our projections indicate that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 minimizes the negative impacts on income and limits the increase in income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty rates. Limiting warming also allows for more time to adapt to the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts. To reduce poverty by at least 15 million by 2030, the European Union has to scale up its protection of vulnerable populations through climate mitigation and adaptation.

热浪和干旱都对人们的收入造成严重损害，但当这些事件同时发生时，对家庭福利的共同影响却知之甚少。我们将2004年至2022年欧洲家庭水平调查数据与高分辨率温度和干旱数据结合起来，采用固定效应计量回归方法，研究热浪、干旱和复合干热极端天气对家庭收入和贫困风险的影响。我们发现，当热浪与干旱月份同时出现时，家庭年收入的平均降幅比热浪单独出现时高出0.8个百分点。对较贫穷的家庭来说，气候的复合影响更大，收入最贫穷的五分之一家庭受到热浪和干旱综合影响的平均家庭收入下降幅度比收入最高的五分之一家庭大2.7个百分点。我们估计，2004-2022年期间，热浪和干旱使欧洲的贫困风险（AROP）率平均增加了1.1个百分点，即560万人。我们的预测表明，到2100年将全球变暖控制在1.5°C以内可以最大限度地减少对收入的负面影响，并限制收入不平等和贫困风险率的扩大。限制气候变暖也让我们有更多的时间来适应热浪和干旱的不利影响。为了到2030年减少至少1500万贫困人口，欧洲联盟必须通过减缓和适应气候变化来加强对弱势群体的保护。

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引用次数: 0

Low-carbon transition of phosphorus chemical industrial parks: A global systematic review 磷化工园区低碳转型：全球系统回顾

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080

Xiang Yu , Luzhi Wang , Wentao Hu , Mudan Wang , Bei Zhu

As an energy-intensive sector, the phosphorus chemical industry’s low-carbon transition is vital for achieving global net-zero carbon emission targets under the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the sector’s transition is constrained bya series of systemic barriers, including uneven phosphate distribution, carbon emission disparities, incosistentcarbon accounting methodologies, high costs of technology upgrades, and the lack of targeted policy. To address these, global phosphorus production industry has been exploring low-carbon transformation pathways that promote industrial agglomeration, integrate the industrial chain, accelerate technological innovation, adopt diversified policy instruments, and strengthen enterprise-led transition initiatives. Given that the phosphorus chemical industry has exhibited a spatial agglomeration globally, industrial parks have emerged as critial platform where these synergistic mechanisms can be integrated and scaled. Consequently, industrial parks function not only as central operational nodes, but also as pivotal enablers of net-zero transitions in the global phosphorus industry.

作为能源密集型行业，磷化工行业的低碳转型对于实现《巴黎协定》和可持续发展目标（SDGs）下的全球净零碳排放目标至关重要。然而，该行业的转型受到一系列系统性障碍的制约，包括磷酸盐分布不均、碳排放差异、碳核算方法不一致、技术升级成本高、缺乏针对性的政策。为此，全球磷肥产业一直在探索促进产业集聚、整合产业链、加快技术创新、多元化政策手段、强化企业主导转型的低碳转型路径。鉴于磷化工在全球范围内呈现出空间集聚的趋势，工业园区成为整合这些协同机制并实现规模化的重要平台。因此，工业园区不仅是中心运营节点，而且是全球磷工业净零转型的关键推动者。

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引用次数: 0

Unity in diversity: The evolution of the grassland social-ecological systems in China and Mongolia 多样性中的统一：中国和蒙古草原社会生态系统的演变

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103113

Haibin Dong , Xiangjuan Hou , Yongzhi Zhao , Qing Xu , Tariq Ali , Siqi Yang , Qing Zhang , Xiangyang Hou

The Mongolian Plateau represents an integrated physical geography unit characterized by ecological gradient continuity and similarity. Under long-term divergent management regimes, the social-ecological systems (SES) of grasslands in China and Mongolia have demonstrated distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clarifying these evolutionary patterns holds significant importance for promoting innovative regional grassland management. This study employs segmented linear regression methods to identify the evolutionary processes of grassland SES in Mongolia, while conducting comparative research with the evolutionary patterns observed in Inner Mongolia, China. Key findings reveal that from 1921 to 2020, Mongolian grassland SES underwent four distinct phases: traditional nomadic pastoralism period, collectivized production period, post-transition pastoral period, and community-based grassland management period. A comparative analysis between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia reveals that, under different management frameworks, both regions have exhibited overall positive trends in their most recent stages of SES evolution. Dynamic changes in key indicators during recent stages further validate this improving trajectory of grassland SES. The process-tracing analysis reveals that the positive development in Inner Mongolia primarily stems from the implementation of ecological conservation policies, whereas Mongolia’s improvement is mainly attributable to natural ecosystem management that emphasizes community-based approaches. Although both management systems demonstrate unique advantages, they are facing increasingly uncertain environmental challenges, making cross-border grassland governance imperative. Future efforts should focus on exploring deeper institutional matching models and adaptive governance practices between both parties to establish an effective regional SES governance framework. This cross-border synergy will better address emerging environmental uncertainties while optimizing the social ecological sustainability of grasslands across the Mongolian plateau.

蒙古高原是一个具有生态梯度连续性和相似性特征的综合自然地理单元。在长期的不同管理制度下，中国和蒙古草原的社会生态系统表现出不同的演化轨迹。厘清这些演化模式对推进区域草地管理创新具有重要意义。本研究采用分段线性回归方法识别蒙古草原SES的演化过程，并与中国内蒙古草原SES的演化模式进行对比研究。研究结果表明：1921 - 2020年，蒙古草原社会经济体系经历了传统游牧游牧时期、集团化生产时期、转型后牧区时期和社区草原经营时期四个阶段；内蒙古和蒙古的比较分析表明，在不同的管理框架下，这两个地区在其最近的社会经济发展阶段都表现出总体积极的趋势。近几个阶段关键指标的动态变化进一步验证了草原SES的改善轨迹。过程追踪分析表明，内蒙古的积极发展主要源于生态保护政策的实施，而内蒙古的改善主要归功于以社区为基础的自然生态系统管理。尽管这两种管理体系都显示出独特的优势，但它们都面临着越来越不确定的环境挑战，这使得跨境草原治理势在必行。未来应重点探索双方更深层次的制度匹配模式和适应性治理实践，建立有效的区域SES治理框架。这种跨界协同将更好地应对新出现的环境不确定性，同时优化蒙古高原草原的社会生态可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Guns or Green? A social-ecological systems analysis of defense expenditure, clean energy, and financial inclusivity in India and Pakistan 枪还是绿？印度和巴基斯坦国防开支、清洁能源和金融包容性的社会生态系统分析

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103112

Muhammad Ramiz Murtaza , Atta Ullah , Quande Qin , Thin Thin Hlaing

Environmental sustainability can be largely determined by the interactions among technological transitions, finance structures, and security dynamics, particularly in India and Pakistan. Yet, the literature rarely examines these dimensions simultaneously within Social-Ecological Systems (SES) context. This study fills this gap by examining how clean energy adoption (CEA), financial inclusivity (FIN), and defense expenditure (DFE) affect load capacity factor (LCF)- a robust measure capturing the balance between ecological demand (ecological footprints) and supply (biocapacity). Focusing on India and Pakistan, we analyze annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022 and apply a country-specific autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to elucidate their distinctive sustainability trajectories. Our findings reveal notable differences. In India, CEA and FIN significantly enhance long-term LCF. However, DFE and economic growth (GDP) markedly weaken it, while organized violence (OGV) and governance quality (GON) show no meaningful impacts. In Pakistan, CEA, FIN, and GON deliver positive long-run boosts to LCF, whereas OGV and GDP undermine it. DFE also harms LCF, though its impact is larger in the short-term. The causality analysis further indicates that LCF granger causes FIN in both countries. India has a unidirectional causality running from CEA to LCF and there is no causality between DFE and LCF. Pakistan shows LCF-based causality towards CEA, with a feedback link from DFE to LCF. By combining the SES framework with rigorous econometric techniques, this study delivers comprehensive insights into how energy transitions, financial access, and security priorities collectively drive environmental outcomes in two highly climate-vulnerable and geopolitically tense South Asian economies.

环境可持续性在很大程度上取决于技术转型、金融结构和安全动态之间的相互作用，特别是在印度和巴基斯坦。然而，文献很少在社会生态系统（SES）背景下同时检查这些维度。本研究通过研究清洁能源采用（CEA）、金融包容性（FIN）和国防支出（DFE）如何影响负荷能力因子（LCF）来填补这一空白。负荷能力因子是一种捕捉生态需求（生态足迹）和供应（生物承载力）之间平衡的有力措施。本文以印度和巴基斯坦为研究对象，分析了从1990年到2022年的年度数据，并采用了一种针对特定国家的自回归分配滞后（ARDL）方法来阐明其独特的可持续性轨迹。我们的发现揭示了显著的差异。在印度，CEA和FIN显著提高了长期LCF。然而，DFE和经济增长（GDP）显著削弱了它，而有组织暴力（OGV）和治理质量（GON）没有显示出有意义的影响。在巴基斯坦，CEA、FIN和GON为LCF带来了积极的长期提振，而OGV和GDP则破坏了LCF。DFE也会损害LCF，尽管它在短期内的影响更大。因果关系分析进一步表明，两国的LCF格兰杰导致FIN。印度从CEA到LCF有单向的因果关系，DFE和LCF之间没有因果关系。巴基斯坦显示了LCF对CEA的因果关系，从DFE到LCF的反馈联系。通过将SES框架与严格的计量经济学技术相结合，本研究对能源转型、金融获取和安全优先事项如何共同推动两个高度气候脆弱和地缘政治紧张的南亚经济体的环境结果提供了全面的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Surging scientific capabilities in cities worldwide after significant earthquakes 大地震后，世界各地城市的科学能力激增

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103109

Yuting Liang , Carlos Navarrete , Jinfeng Wang

Natural disasters trigger complex social chain interactions. While scholars have largely assessed their impacts on society, much less is known about how such catastrophes contribute to the development of scientific capabilities. Here, we analyze 314,753 earthquake-related scholarly documents together with metadata on 1099 significant seismic events worldwide between 1980 and 2024 to examine how earthquakes influence the entry of new scientific capabilities into the portfolios of cities and countries. We find that major earthquakes can reconfigure research trajectories in cities near epicenters and stimulate activity across a broader range of scientific domains, irrespective of prior scientific capabilities. This diversification spans both related fields (e.g., geosciences and civil engineering) and unrelated fields (e.g., psychology and economics), particularly in the aftermath of the largest and most destructive events. The odds of entering new fields at the city level are associated with factors such as the number of people affected, historical exposure to earthquakes, and pre-existing scientific capabilities. These findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging geographic and institutional resilience to foster scientific diversification in disaster-prone regions, offering policymakers valuable insights into smart specialization strategies for risk mitigation and long-term knowledge development.

自然灾害引发复杂的社会链互动。虽然学者们已经在很大程度上评估了它们对社会的影响，但对于这些灾难如何促进科学能力的发展，我们知之甚少。在这里，我们分析了314,753份与地震相关的学术文献，以及1980年至2024年间全球1099次重大地震事件的元数据，以研究地震如何影响新的科学能力进入城市和国家的投资组合。这种多样化跨越了相关领域（例如，地球科学和土木工程）和不相关领域（例如，心理学和经济学），特别是在最大和最具破坏性的事件之后。在城市一级进入新领域的可能性与受影响的人口数量、历史上遭受地震的风险以及现有的科学能力等因素有关。这些发现强调了利用地理和制度弹性来促进灾害易发地区科学多样化的必要性，为决策者提供了关于减轻风险和长期知识发展的智能专业化战略的宝贵见解。

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引用次数: 0

Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones 多灾种预警对人类活动和热带气旋复原力的综合效益

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111

Haiyan Liu , Jianghao Wang , Zhifeng Cheng , Siqin Wang , Laurence Hawker , Jiatong Han , Phil J. Ashworth , Steve Darby , Faith Ka Shun Chan , Jian Liu , Andrew J. Tatem , Shengjie Lai

Multi-hazard early-warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and enhancing disaster resilience. However, quantitative empirical evidence on how different types of early warnings individually and collectively trigger preventive actions and influence resilience remains limited. Here, using location-based human mobility data aggregated from over 1.1 billion mobile devices across Chinese cities, we quantified daily intracity human mobility responses to 21,126 early warning signals during 19 tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2021 to 2023. To represent disaster resilience under MHEWS protection, we developed a protected resilience index that integrates both the magnitude of mobility changes and recovery durations. We found that, compared with city-level TC warnings alone, combined multi-level, multi-hazard warnings resulted in a 52.4 % reduction in mobility during TC exposure days, thereby increasing avoided direct population exposure by around 57.1 %. Each additional warning type further shortened recovery times, collectively reducing recovery durations by at least 55.6 %, with larger effects observed for stronger TCs. Under MHEWS protection, protected resilience remained statistically similar between moderate-intensity TCs (34 kt and 50 kt) but declined significantly under severe (≥64 kt) conditions. Although absolute reductions in exposure were greater in high-frequency, coastal, and wealthier cities, relative improvements from MHEWS were more pronounced in less frequently affected, inland, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Consequently, MHEWS significantly narrowed resilience disparities among cities facing equivalent hazard exposures. This study introduces a scalable, behaviour-based framework for quantifying early-warning effectiveness, highlighting the essential role of integrated multi-level and multi-hazard warnings in disaster preparedness across cities amid escalating climate risks.

多灾种预警系统（MHEWS）对于减轻极端天气影响和增强抗灾能力至关重要。然而，关于不同类型的预警如何单独和集体地触发预防行动并影响复原力的定量经验证据仍然有限。本文利用来自中国城市11亿多台移动设备的基于位置的人类流动性数据，量化了2021年至2023年19个热带气旋（tc）期间对21126个预警信号的每日城市人口流动性响应。为了表示MHEWS保护下的灾害恢复能力，我们开发了一个综合了流动性变化幅度和恢复持续时间的受保护恢复能力指数。我们发现，与单独的城市级别的TC警告相比，多层、多危害的联合警告导致在TC暴露日期间的流动性减少52.4%，从而使避免的直接人口暴露增加约57.1%。每一种额外的预警类型都进一步缩短了恢复时间，总体上至少减少了55.6%的恢复持续时间，对更强的tc有更大的影响。在MHEWS保护下，中等强度tc （34 kt和50 kt）的保护弹性在统计学上保持相似，但在严重tc（≥64 kt）条件下，保护弹性显著下降。虽然在高频、沿海和较富裕的城市暴露的绝对减少更大，但在不太频繁受影响的内陆和社会经济不利地区，MHEWS的相对改善更为明显。因此，MHEWS显著缩小了面临同等灾害暴露的城市之间的复原力差异。本研究引入了一个可扩展的、基于行为的预警有效性量化框架，强调了在气候风险不断升级的情况下，综合多层次和多灾种预警在城市备灾中的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond projects: Relational durability and the measurement of climate adaptation success in practice 项目之外：关系持久性和实践中气候适应成功的衡量

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103110

Stacy-ann Robinson , Mara Dolan , Emma Bouton , J. Timmons Roberts , D’Arcy Carlson

As global adaptation policy moves to operationalize the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), questions remain about what sustains success once external funding and oversight have ended. This article advances a relational framework for understanding how adaptation endures, arguing that success is less about technical design and short-term outputs, and more about the continuity of relationships among people, institutions, and place. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork across three rural Jamaican communities that implemented two United Nations Development Programme-supported agricultural adaptation projects, this study examines how adaptation practices have persisted more than five years after project closure. Through interviews, focus groups, and field observation, it identifies seven interlinked factors – volunteerism, local-institutional partnerships, embedded leadership, national alignment, locally tailored livelihoods, perceptions of fairness and inclusion, and long-term community enthusiasm – that have allowed adaptation to remain active and meaningful over time. The findings demonstrate that durability emerges from relational continuity, i.e. the social and institutional infrastructures that embed adaptation in everyday life. Introducing relational durability as both an analytical and policy lens, the article reframes adaptation success as a collective, co-produced process grounded in recognition, reciprocity, and care, and calls for these relational capacities to be treated as core indicators of progress under the GGA.

随着全球适应政策转向实施全球适应目标（GGA），在外部资金和监督结束后，如何维持成功的问题仍然存在。本文提出了一个理解适应如何持续的关系框架，认为成功与技术设计和短期产出关系不大，而更多地与人、机构和地点之间关系的连续性有关。本研究通过对实施了两个联合国开发计划署支持的农业适应项目的三个牙买加农村社区进行定性实地调查，考察了适应实践如何在项目结束后持续了五年多。通过访谈、焦点小组和实地观察，它确定了七个相互关联的因素——志愿服务、地方机构伙伴关系、嵌入式领导、国家协调、当地量身定制的生计、对公平和包容的看法以及长期的社区热情——这些因素使适应能够长期保持活跃和有意义。研究结果表明，持久性来自于关系连续性，即将适应融入日常生活的社会和制度基础设施。本文将关系持久性作为分析和政策视角引入，将适应成功重新定义为基于认可、互惠和关怀的集体、共同产生的过程，并呼吁将这些关系能力视为GGA下进展的核心指标。

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