Global Environmental Change最新文献

Assessing land use change trajectories following food insecurity shocks in 25 low- and middle-income countries

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102999

Evan Patrick, Van Butsic, Matthew D. Potts

Food insecurity is a perennial problem in much of the developing world, with gains against hunger backsliding in recent years and climate change predicted to accelerate this trend. Food insecurity is highly disruptive to rural livelihoods and can lead to dramatic shifts in food production strategies and resultant land use. However, studies to date have yet to outline the overarching patterns of land use change that can result from food insecurity. We elucidate the impact of food insecurity events between 2013 and 2020 in 25 low- and middle-income countries on resulting land use change and demographics. Using propensity score matching, we create a counterfactual and assess changes in forest cover, crop cover, population and nighttime luminosity between regions that experience food insecurity and comparable food-secure regions. Land use change theory, specifically the classical trajectories of agricultural intensification, land rent theory, and regime shifts help to explain observed land use trajectories. We find that food insecurity events lead to around a 4 % decline in population and a 3 % decline in cropped areas, alongside a 4 % increase in forest cover compared to control regions. Additionally, we show that drought-driven food insecurity drives impacts on land use and conflict-driven food insecurity shows greater impacts on population and nighttime luminosity. Food insecurity shocks result in an increase in population and crop cover in urban areas despite losses in adjoining rural land, suggesting that food insecurity drives local rural to urban migration. Furthermore, by assessing the impacts of discrete food insecurity events in three countries, we find that regional contexts mediate impacts by producing variable land use change trajectories.

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引用次数: 0

Science and science communication of anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather-related events: A Critical Discourse Analysis of the Alpha Road/Tambaroora bushfire in Australia, 2023

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102996

Phil McManus

There is evidence of increased links in media coverage between anthropogenic climate change and heatwaves, wildfires and flooding events. This usually pertains to major disasters, but that is a relative concept as the notion of disaster is contextual and disasters are devastating at smaller scales for the people impacted. Media reporting of the Alpha Road/Tambaroora bushfire in the central-west region of New South Wales (Australia), in March 2023, was analysed using Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to analyse links between science, anthropogenic climate change and an extreme weather-related event. There was a focus on proximate causes, costs and impact on livelihoods. There was an absence of climate change discourse. Timely attribution science, especially rapid assessments that accurately connect climate change with significant weather-related events, not just large-scale disasters, may increase media salience and assist with science communication. The expectation that parts of Australia will burn, and therefore bushfires become newsworthy only when they are disasters, needs to be challenged in order to live in a changing climate.

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引用次数: 0

Beyond borders: Unveiling trade-attributed greenhouse gas inequality under global value chains

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102997

Wei Zhen , Yujie Tang , Quande Qin , Xiaoying Qian

Understanding trade-attributed greenhouse gas (GHG) inequality from a global value chain (GVC) perspective is essential for advancing global sustainability. This study examines the distribution and influencing mechanism of trade-attributed GHG inequality across 49 economies from 1995 to 2022. We integrate a GVC decomposition model with an optimized regional environmental inequality index to assess the trade-attributed GHG inequity. The gravity model is employed to explore the relationship between this inequality and different GVC trade types. Through a structural decomposition analysis, we further unveil the drivers of GHG emissions per value added in crucial GVC trade types to determine effective pathways for alleviating the inequality. Our analysis reveals the following findings: (1) Trade-related GHG emissions and value added are significantly unequally distributed among economies, with this imbalance being more severe between GVCs. (2) Trade-attributed GHG inequalities demonstrate widespread globally and exhibit a worsening trend, with particularly pronounced disparities emerging in trade between developing economies, notably China, India, and Russia. (3) Exports and imports through complex GVCs are the most crucial GVC trade types for exacerbating the inequality. Imports through traditional trade represent another crucial GVC trade type. (4) Reducing GHG intensity plays a vital role in alleviating the inequality. Efforts should focus on targeting specific drivers in crucial GVC trade types to reduce their GHG emissions per value added. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on trade-attributed GHG inequality and provides valuable insights for policymakers working towards more equitable and sustainable global trade practices within the context of GVCs.

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引用次数: 0

Rethinking the science-policy interface for chemicals, waste, and pollution: Challenging core assumptions

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102995

Jen Iris Allan , Anwesha Borthakur , Fiona Kinninburgh , Moritz Petersmann , Angeliki Balayannis , Andrew Barry , Silke Beck , Kevin Elliott , Tim Forsyth , Anita Hardon , Hannah Hughes , Philip Macnaghten , Henrik Selin , Yixian Sun , Alice Vadrot

Negotiations are ongoing but fraught for designing a new global science-policy panel for chemicals and waste pollution. In this Perspectives article, we challenge three assumptions guiding these negotiations. First, the new panel should resemble the existing panels of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Inter-governmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, the creation of a new panel will automatically carry authority within policymaking. Third, the participation of industry is crucial without special consideration for its interests. Further, we identify three steps to enhance the panel’s relevance and influence.

引用次数: 0

Integrating climate mitigation and adaptation in the UK: A new anticipatory narrative for achieving “Climate Resilient Net Zero” in preparing for heat risk 整合英国的气候减缓和适应措施：实现 "具有气候复原力的净零 "以应对热风险的新预测论述

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102994

Candice Howarth , Niall McLoughlin , Ellie Murtagh , Andrew P. Kythreotis , James Porter

Climate Policy Integration (CPI) is key to mainstreaming and harmonising mitigation and adaptation in policy responses to climate change worldwide. However, little is known about how CPI can be applied in practice, beyond single policy areas, particularly in the integration of adaptation and mitigation responses. We investigate this in the context of responding to climate impacts such as extreme heat, a climate risk growing in international importance. Using the 2022 UK heatwaves as a case study, our paper explores: (a) the extent to which key stakeholders consider the integration of adaptation and mitigation to be important; (b) perceptions of the feasibility of integration; and (c) main enablers and/or challenges with integration of adaptation and mitigation. To do this, interviews (N = 38) and four focus groups (N = 21) were conducted with policymakers, first responders, utility providers, and civil society responsible for managing heat risks. Our findings reveal a tension that CPI is essential to achieving a “climate resilient net zero”, yet unrealised. To facilitate CPI, we present a new anticipatory narrative with international and multi-contextual significance, that considers the convergence of key elements integral to effective CPI decision-making in the context of heat risk: (1) ‘Challenges’ − that may hinder, undermine, or act as a barrier to the integration of mitigation and adaptation; (2) ‘Enablers’ − which support, or help to facilitate greater integration, or synergies, between mitigation and adaptation; (3) ‘Framings’ − different ways participants described, defined or interpreted the issue of integration; (4) ‘Importance’ – the extent to which participants thought that integrating mitigation and adaptation was important; and (5) ‘Feasibility’ – or how possible integration is. We conclude that unless all five elements are fully addressed iteratively by end-users when tackling and understanding heat risks, new problems may emerge.

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引用次数: 0

The multifaceted spectra of power − A participatory network analysis on power structures in diverse dryland regions

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102984

Veronica Olofsson , Maria Mancilla Garcia , Antonio J. Castro , Sofía Cortés Calderón , Amadou Hamath Diallo , Amanda Jiménez Aceituno , María D. López-Rodríguez , Taís Sonetti Gonzalez , Amanda Sousa Silvino , Ana Paula Aguiar

With intensifying climate change impacts on dryland regions, it is essential to better understand how actors relate to each other to sustainably manage natural resources. The literature on environmental governance networks has studied actor collaborations, but it is only starting to investigate networks that sustain conflictive situations. Moreover, while actors traditionally defined as powerful have received important scholarly attention, those who do not hold formal authority or key financial resources have not, as well as their sources of power. In this paper we analyse Net-Map data to better understand the sources of power of actor groups that traditionally are not perceived as influential, hence they are neglected in actor networks. We use social network analysis and a typology of power to understand these actors’ links in the networks, aiming to decipher what might explain why the traditionally neglected actors are perceived as particularly influential. We apply these methods to local sites in three case countries, all located in dryland regions. Net-Map workshops with diverse groups of participants were held with a focus on agricultural production systems. The results reveal that a broad variety of actors that traditionally have been, and still are, neglected in decision making domains, are perceived as particularly influential in their regions, pointing to the various modes in which power is understood and exercised. The competing interests over natural resources shed light on the role that conflictive tensions played in power relations. Through this work a broader understanding of power asymmetries in actor networks is gained.

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引用次数: 0

Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102986

Fulvio Di Fulvio , Tord Snäll , Pekka Lauri , Nicklas Forsell , Mikko Mönkkönen , Daniel Burgas , Clemens Blattert , Kyle Eyvindson , Astor Toraño Caicoya , Marta Vergarechea , Clara Antón-Fernández , Julian Klein , Rasmus Astrup , Jani Lukkarinen , Samuli Pitzén , Eeva Primmer

The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims to conserve and restore biodiversity by protecting large areas throughout the European Union. A target of the EUBDS is to protect 30 % of the EU’s land area by 2030, with 10 % being strictly protected (including all primary and old growth forests) and 20 % being managed ‘closer to nature’. Even though this will have a positive impact on biodiversity, it may negatively impact the EU’s wood-based bioeconomy. In this study, we analyze how alternative interpretations and distributions of the EU’s protection targets may affect future woody biomass harvest levels, exports of wood commodities, and the spatial distribution of managed areas under wood demands aligned with SSP2-RCP1.9. Using the model GLOBIOM-Forest, we simulate scenarios representing a variety of interpretations and geographic distributions of the EUBDS targets. The EUBDS targets would have a limited impact on EU harvest levels since the EU can still increase its wood harvest between 21 % and 24 % by 2100. With strict protection of 30 % of the area, the EU harvest level can still be increased by 10 %. Moreover, the most likely scenario (10 %/20 % protection within each MS) will result in increased net exports in the coming decades, but a slight decline after 2050. However, if protection is intended to also represent site productivity or to re-establish a green infrastructure, then EU net exports will also decline before 2050. With the decreased EU roundwood harvest, increased harvest will occur in other biomes and mostly leaking into boreal regions.

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引用次数: 0

Networked shorelines: A review of vulnerability interactions between human adaptation to sea level rise and wetland migration

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102985

Celina Balderas Guzman

Facing urgent climate risks, many human and non-human actors are adapting to climate change with adaptations that sometimes shift vulnerabilities to other actors. Shifting vulnerabilities is a type of maladaptation and understanding them is a critical component of adaptation planning given the growing incidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions. This review creates an analytical framework, called the Vulnerability Interactions Framework, to identify instances of shifting vulnerabilities from across the natural and social science literature and interpret them using a systematic approach. To demonstrate its utility, the analytical framework is applied in the context of coastal adaptation to sea level rise on the topics of coastal squeeze and wetland migration. Along certain shorelines, humans are building protective infrastructure, such as sea walls and levees, to protect themselves from sea level rise. Meanwhile, coastal wetlands—one of the world’s most valuable ecosystems—are able to adapt to sea level rise when they can migrate landward. This wetland adaptation is often blocked by human shoreline development and infrastructure—a phenomenon known as coastal squeeze. Yet migrating wetlands may also impact human actors in negative ways. This review identifies 53 distinct ways that vulnerabilities can shift across human and non-human actors on physical, economic, environmental, social, cultural, and institutional dimensions. These interactions reflect particular biophysical and social contexts and can operate on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Because of these complex interactions, adaptation planning must look towards developing solutions that are cross-sectoral and cross-scalar in scope, place adaptation within a larger socio-ecological context, consider a phased approach, engage with communities, build local adaptive capacity, and address personal, social, and cultural losses inherent in coastal transformations. Overall, the Vulnerability Interactions Framework can be used as a research or planning tool to map observed or hypothetical shifts in vulnerability.

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引用次数: 0

Agency, social networks, and adaptation to environmental change

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102983

Michele L Barnes , Sarah Sutcliffe , Innocent Muly , Nyawira Muthiga , Stephen Wanyonyi , Petr Matous , Michael Murunga

Environmental change is escalating across the globe, threatening the livelihoods and wellbeing of millions of people. Substantial effort and resources have been committed at a global scale to support adaptation projects in affected communities to confront these changes. Yet not everyone has equal capabilities to adapt, guide adaptation decisions, and contribute to envisioning alternative futures. Drawing on theories of agency, social networks, and adaptation and employing a unique time-series dataset including 653 individuals across five Kenyan coastal communities, here we examine how agency over adaptation decisions is socially differentiated and the disparities that exist regarding who is able to bolster their level of agency over time. Our results show that involvement in local environmental decision-making processes, where adaptation to environmental change is negotiated, is strongly associated with feelings of effective power. Yet this power is largely concentrated among older individuals, community leaders, those with greater assets, and those with social ties to leaders – pointing to existing social hierarchies and resource differentials that drive adaptation decisions. The only significant predictor of changes in agency over time was network exposure: individuals with direct contact with those who were actively involved in environmental decision-making (individual agency) were likely to become more involved themselves; yet contact with passively involved partners (proxy agency) led to decreases in agency over time. Our results suggest a dynamic ripple effect in agency through social networks, suggesting that social networks can both catalyse and inhibit perceptions of effective power over adaptation decisions through participation in environmental decision-making. Our findings underscore the importance of social networks in enabling and constraining agency, highlight the role of leadership and power dynamics in environmental decision-making and locally led adaptation, and provide a foundation for future research on fostering inclusive and just adaptation.

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引用次数: 0

The environmental statehood of ecological restoration: An institutional analysis of three regulatory case studies

IF 8.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102982

Emille Boulot

Throughout Australia, social-ecological systems are in decline. Ecological restoration has been identified as a key process for reversing this decline, but the recovery of social-ecological systems following ecological restoration is rare. As ecological restoration is a social practice as much as it is a natural science practice, regulatory frameworks have a key role to play in either promoting or impeding recovery. This paper investigates how institutions in the regulatory space for ecological restoration approach recovery and identifies the drivers for regulatory instruments through a multi-level institutional analysis of three regulatory case studies across Australia. The findings from the institutional analysis demonstrate a paradox in the regulation of ecological restoration as it shows that the regulatory frameworks are actually contributing to low recovery rates. Ecological restoration is often regulated by the same regulatory frameworks that regulate land degradation and the regulatory systems continue to articulate the value of land degrading activities, with ecological restoration a way of avoiding state liability. Drivers for regulatory reform are then often market orientated. These findings all demonstrate what has been called an environmental statehood; that is, the way in which modern states engage with social-ecological issues, only continues to reinforce land degradation.

The role of the state, state institutions and regulation is often overlooked in studies addressing socio-ecological resilience and adaptation, despite the central role of these institutions in the management of socio-ecological systems. This paper adds to the growing scholarship that addresses this research gap by contributing an empirically informed analysis of the regulation of ecological restoration in Australia.

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引用次数: 0