As Existing Cities Adapt to Climate Change Can Dynamic Systems Analysis be Useful in Building a Sustainable Future?

Abstract

“The data collected shows that disaster displacement is a global issue that affects high and low-income countries alike. An average of 24 million new displacements a year were recorded between 2008 and 2018, three times the figure for people displaced by conflict and violence [1].” (Ponserre 2019, 6) ABSTRACT The World Meteorological Organization, an arm of the United Nations, estimates that Swiss glaciers lost 6% of their volume in 2022 [2]. For summer tourism, this is good news. This means a longer season, more tours and more income for businesses. There are steeper costs that come with such short-term benefit of climate change; smaller glaciers mean less drinking water, less water for the crops and less hydroelectricity. This paper outlines how cities may moderate the effects of climate change, adapt nature-based remedies and assure a sustainable future for local populations by analyzing the cross-correlation, magnitude and time-dependence of the “causes” and “effects”. Recognizing that climate-risks are influenced by vectors with non-linear relationship, this paper proposes a dynamic systems approach to urban development and planning in areas prone to such risks. Climate-related risks, such as rise in temperature impacting outside work for typically low-skilled workers or coastal flooding which raises rebuilding costs and thus shrinks the housing stock, push some of the poor to homelessness, crime and drug abuse are interconnected as in a dynamic system, changing with time in scale. Such vectors need to be accounted for and analyzed accordingly.