Tasmania January to June 2023

Abstract

The foundations of Tasmanian politics were shaken in the first half of 2023 by the slide of the Rockliff Liberal government into minority. Two Liberal backbenchers defected to the crossbench in May. This was ostensibly due to the row over the proposal to build a $715 million AFL stadium on Hobart's waterfront but was underpinned by wider concern at the government's lack of transparency on a range of issues. With the Tasmanian Liberals having won three elections in a row since 2014 on a platform of ‘stable majority government’, their collapse into minority raised questions about the stability of new arrangements negotiated with the two rebel Liberals. The government lost control of the lower house on several occasions during the budget debate and on key policy issues, especially including the ongoing controversy over the proposed Marinus electricity and data link with the mainland. The unexpected defection also focused attention on the preparedness of Labor and the Greens to contest an early election should one eventuate.

The Rockliff government was thrown into minority in mid-May by the shock resignation from the party of two of its northern-based MPs – member for Bass Lara Alexander and member for Lyons John Tucker – to sit as Independents. The defection left the Liberal government with 11 members in the twenty-five-member House of Assembly while the Labor opposition had eight seats and there were six crossbench members, including two Greens, one Labor Independent, and an increased number of other Independents to three.

In announcing their defection, both MPs cited concerns about future debt surrounding Hobart's $715 million Macquarie Point stadium, with Alexander also taking issue with the lack of transparency of government decision making – an issue pursued in parliament for several months by Labor and the Greens. Both Alexander and Tucker said they had individually raised concerns about the AFL stadium with the Premier last year, but nothing had been done. Additionally, Tucker aired grievances against the Marinus link and said that he had been overlooked for a ministry in the last cabinet reshuffle. Meanwhile, political commentators noted the broader schism within the Tasmanian Liberal party between moderates and conservatives over the direction of the party, noting Alexander's concerns with the government's support for laws to ban gay conversion and Premier Jeremy Rockliff's support for the proposed Aboriginal Voice to Parliament (Mercury, 13 May 2023).

The two rebel Liberals both said they did not plan to destabilise the government, with Tucker saying he hoped Rockliff would remain as Premier. When interviewed, Alexander said, “I don't want to disrupt the government. We need to make sure that the right decisions are being taken, and the last thing the community needs is a big upheaval” (ABC News, 12 May 2023). Since the May 2021 election the government had lost six MPs, including former Premier Peter Gutwein and three other ministers from its nine-member cabinet, just halfway through its term. However, Premier Rockliff said that while he felt let down by colleagues who had been elected as Liberals, he ruled out an early election. The next House of Assembly election was not due until May 2025. Rockliff said government had to be mature and that meant reaching across the parliament to all members and ensuring collective responsibility to govern in the best interests of all Tasmanians (Mercury, 12 May 2023).

Subsequently, Rockliff announced he had reached agreement with Alexander and Tucker who would guarantee supply, vote to pass all appropriation and revenue bills, vote in favour of the government on any confidence motions and not vote in favour of Labor or Greens legislation (media statement, 20 May 2023). In return, the government made a number of key commitments on transparency. These included that the stadium would become a project of state significance, giving parliament more say over the approval. Rockcliff also agreed to the publication of all arrangements with the AFL, subject to confidentiality agreements, that he would meet weekly with both Independents to discuss issues and that they would be briefed on legislation or other significant matters on request (government memorandum, 20 May 2023).

With the return of Parliament on 23 May, the stability of the minority government faced its first test, surviving an opposition no-confidence motion. Every MP except the Speaker was given time to speak in the debate in the interests of transparency, on the insistence of the two Liberal defectors. Labor Franklin MHA Dean Winter noted, however, that the government did lose on the second motion it faced on the same day regarding timeframes for answering of questions on notice by 14 votes to 10 – a motion designed to test the government's commitment to greater transparency in parliament (National Tribune, 24 May 2023).

Further demonstrating its vulnerability, the government in June was repeatedly out-voted on the floor of the Lower House by 12 votes to 10, by the combination of Labor, Greens and Independents Kristie Johnston and John Tucker after Labor attempted to suspend standing orders to debate a motion on transparency. Labor leader Rebecca White had attempted to move a motion demanding the production of more documents and to establish a process involving an independent arbiter to determine disputes about anything the government claimed was covered by cabinet confidentiality. Ultimately, with both Alexander and Independent Labor MP David O'Byrne absent after contracting COVID-19, the government prevailed as the motion failed to win the required two-thirds majority in parliament to proceed (Mercury, 20 June 2023). Nevertheless, consideration of the budget bills was delayed as the issue of transparency was thrashed out in a long day of debate.

The Liberals' struggle to win votes in the House of Assembly fuelled speculation of an early election. Political commentator Dr Richard Herr noted that the Premier could go to the Governor to seek an election if he felt parliament was hopelessly divided (Mercury, 19 May 2023). The ongoing election conjecture caused nervousness in the business community and forced the Premier and his senior ministers to repeatedly rule it out. Halfway through a term, none of the parties were ready administratively or financially to go to the polls, as demonstrated by both Labor and the Greens taking the unusual position for opposition parties of calling on the government “to get on with the job it was elected to do” rather than demand the Premier call an early election (Mercury, 5 July 2023).

An interesting side-effect of the defection of the two ex-Liberals is that, after existing as a political party for thirty years, the Greens could no longer claim the title as the “third force” in the House of Assembly. Independents, including the two rebel Liberals along with Clark Independent Johnston and Franklin Independent O'Byrne, now claimed four seats in the lower house compared to the Greens' two seats. However, the make-up of the house will undoubtedly change as, in May 2025 or earlier, the next state election will be for an expanded thirty-five member House of Assembly after legislation passed to increase the size of the House from its current twenty-five seats; seven members from each of the five multi-member electorates under the Hare-Clark model will make it easier for minor party and independent candidates to be elected.

Meanwhile, one of the factors limiting Labor's ability to take advantage of government disarray was its ongoing internal division over the position of former leader David O'Byrne. In May, O'Byrne topped a rank-and-file ballot of Labor delegates to attend the ALP's national conference despite being exiled by the Parliamentary party in 2021 after he was accused of misconduct by a former union colleague a decade earlier. A subsequent report found O'Byrne had behaved badly but had not breached any Labor Party rules (Mercury, 27 May 2023).

An EMRS poll of Tasmanian voting intentions released just a few days after the government's brutal treatment in Parliament brought further bad news for the Liberals. It found Liberal support had slumped six points since the EMRS February poll to 36 per cent which was its lowest level of support since 2018. Labor didn't benefit greatly from the Liberal fall of support – up only one point to 31 per cent – while the Greens rose two points to 15 per cent. However, despite Labor's apparent weakness, Labor leader White led Premier Rockliff as preferred premier 40 to 38 per cent, reversing Rockliff's previous 44–36 lead in the February poll. EMRS polling tracked a steady decline in Rockliff's popularity rating since he took over from Peter Gutwein in April 2022 – with a high of 47 per cent in both its June and August 2022 polls (ABC News, 25 May 2023).

With intense scrutiny of the government over transparency and integrity, many commentators questioned the wisdom of Premier Rockliff in engaging media adviser Danielle McKay, a partner in Tasmania's biggest public relations and lobby firm Font PR, on a $50,000 eight-week contract to fill gaps in its in-house communications team. McKay, a former journalist with the Hobart Mercury, was well credentialed having worked as an adviser to former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, and former Premier Will Hodgman (Mercury, 30 June 2023). Font is run by Mr Hodgman's former chief of staff Brad Stansfield and former journalist Becher Townshend. The firm is registered as a lobbyist for a range of private sector organisations. Centre for Public Integrity director Geoffrey Watson SC argued the appointment gave rise to a similar conflict of interest as the national PwC scandal, where a partner had access to confidential government information that was of benefit to the firm's clients, and called on the arrangement to be scrapped immediately. Rockliff said there were “strict confidentiality agreements” in place and McKay would provide public-facing activities, such as media releases, responding to media inquiries and writing speeches (ABC News, 1 July 2023).

The proposed Australian rules football stadium at the languishing Macquarie Point site near the Hobart waterfront became a significant political issue, both within the Liberal Party and between the state's north and south from its first inception in 2021 with opponents arguing the money would be better spent on housing. The go-ahead for the stadium was secured in April after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the Federal Government would provide $240 million towards the estimated $715 million cost of a multi-purpose stadium to be built by 2029 as part of an urban renewal project for the under-utilised industrial site. The Tasmanian government had previously committed $375 million along with $15 million from the AFL. The Prime Minister emphasised housing would be a major focus and argued 4,200 jobs would be created during the precinct's construction, along with ongoing jobs in tourism and hospitality (The Age, 29 April 2023).

Despite it being the central issue that forced the government into minority, the proposed stadium was still guaranteed support through the House of Assembly. Alexander and Tucker both said their intention was not to derail the stadium, but to put it under greater scrutiny (ABC News, 12 May 2023). The AFL reaffirmed its position that the stadium was a condition of Tasmania securing a team in the national competition and that it had a binding agreement with the state government that the stadium would be built (Mercury, 13 May 2023). Under its minority government agreement with the two rebel MPs, Premier Rockliff undertook to declare the Macquarie Point AFL stadium a project of state significance. On their part, the two rebel Independents undertook not to support any motion or legislation seeking to stop the Macquarie Point Stadium project, pending the outcome of the project of state significance process (memorandum, 20 May 2023). Under that process, both Houses of Parliament get to vote on whether to accept that declaration. If passed, the project is then assessed by the Tasmanian Planning Commission which must include input from all relevant councils and agencies including environmental, heritage, Aboriginal, energy and planning bodies and a public submission process (ABC News, 23 May 2023). However, whether the project of state significance declaration is supported in the Legislative Council remains to be seen. The government needs support of at least seven of the fifteen Upper House members (the President has a casting vote only if there is a 7–7 vote on the floor of the chamber). The Liberals' four MLCs would need votes from three of the seven Independents or the three Labor MLCs to support it. While Labor questioned the AFL deal, it had not yet declared whether it would support the process (ABC News, 23 May 2023).

A Bahà'ì-like process of ‘progressive revelation’ seemed to apply to the Marinus project and more transparency was one of the demands of the new crossbench. The long-proposed second link to convey electricity and data across western Bass Strait continued to be a focus for political controversy during the half-year. The main issue was essentially its cost–benefit to Tasmania. While its technical advantage over the existing arrangement of a single cable included redundancy in case of breakage (as had occurred in the recent past) as well as greater capacity, its construction cost of more than $3.8 billion was high. And while it would provide increased revenue to TasNetworks and state coffers from the sale of electricity to the mainland eastern grid, its ongoing costs were not clear. Further, it would mean that power prices in Tasmania would have to rise to match those of the ‘national’ grid. As well, there was continued criticism on environmental grounds such as the Robbins Island wind farms needed to ensure capacity, but which were detrimental to migrating bird life across the strait. The Marinus chair, Samantha Hogg, resigned in April after only a year in the job and Minister Guy Barnett provided no explanations on the matter when questioned in parliament by Labor's Dean Winter and the Greens' Rosalie Woodruff (Tasmanian Times, 22 June 2023).

Elections were held for three Legislative Council seats in May – Launceston, Murchison, and Rumney. In the fifteen-seat Upper House, in what is a hangover from colonial times, elections are staggered so that only either two or three seats are contested each year, making it impossible for the entire House of Review to face electors at the same time. Following humdrum campaigns, all three sitting members were returned. In Launceston, conservative Independent Rosemary Armitage won with an overwhelming 78.2 per cent of the valid vote against her only challenger, Cecily Rosol of the Greens. Nearly five per cent of votes were marked as informal.

In Murchison, which includes the west and far northwest coasts, incumbent progressive Independent Ruth Forrest gained nearly 72 per cent of the formal vote in a field of four. In Rumney on Hobart's eastern shore, Labor's Sarah Lovell retained her seat with almost 50 per cent of primary votes, compared with Liberal Greg Brown's 26.5 per cent. Former incumbent from 2011–2017 and perennial independent candidate Tony Mulder took 17.1 per cent (Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 16 May 2023).

In January, the Tasmanian Aboriginal Centre (TAC) indicated its opposition to the Federal referendum on the Voice to Parliament, by providing three statements from its leaders to the Hobart Mercury, which were published in full on 21 January. Heather Sculthorpe argued that money spent on the referendum could be better spent more directly on improving the economic and social circumstances of Aboriginal people. Maggie Walter pointed to the interlinking of the three Uluṟu statement's themes – Truth, Treaty and Voice – such that one would fail without the others. Michael Mansell argued for Treaty over Voice. His account said that Parliament is a white institution irrespective of the Voice, whereas a treaty would provide Aboriginal sovereignty (TAC website, 20 February 2023). However, the TAC position was by no means universal amongst Palawa leaders. Others were more concentrated on Truth and Treaty in relation to lutruwita (Tasmania) rather than the federal Voice. Elder Rodney Gibbins, for example, continued his concern with delays in implementing administrative arrangements with the state government on these issues. Felix Ellis MHR, speaking for the government, remarked that “the door is always open” to those who want to be involved, whereas Gibbins responded that “it's shut and locked tight against the Palawa community” and that the government would only listen to its chosen six-member group (ABC News, 29 May 2023).

On 1 May, the Tasmanian salmon industry plan came into effect. It recognised that Tasmanian farmed salmon was the largest within the overall national aquaculture industry. It also noted that the industry was a major user of freshwater (for hatcheries and for mature fish cleaning) as well as of the “marine estate”. The plan encompassed the priorities of sustainability, prosperity and “contemporary governance”. It promised transparency especially through a new dedicated portal, as well as promoting new farms further offshore in deeper, ‘high energy’ water (Dept of Natural resources and Energy 2023). However, by contrast the new owner of Huon Aquaculture, JBS, the Brazilian food multinational, released a statement saying that hundreds of millions of its investment dollars in the industry were at risk because existing local regulations made the cost of farming up to 50 per cent higher in Tasmania compared with the rest of the world (Australian, 23 May 2023).

After a pause in plans to redevelop the Sandy Bay campus site, which followed overwhelming rejection of the move to the city by Hobart electors, the University of Tasmania suffered another blow to its ambitions when the peak student body reversed its stance on the issue. Citing a lack of consultation and issuing a list of demands, the students received an acknowledgement that the university must improve its communication and transparency (Mercury, 14 April 2023). Nevertheless, the move appeared inexorable as redevelopment of city buildings continued, while Vice-Chancellor Rufus Black acknowledged that consultation needed to be improved (Australian, 1 March 2023).

Senator for Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie, was the focus of issues surrounding Australia's military in June. The former member of the military police told the Senate that she had referred leaders of the Australian Defence Force to the International Criminal Court in The Hague because, unlike ordinary soldiers involved, they had not been held accountable for alleged war crimes in recent operations overseas. After the 2020 Brereton Inquiry found evidence of alleged war crimes including murder of unarmed civilians in Afghanistan by twenty-five Australian soldiers, senior commanders were given a ‘free pass’, she said. Lambie's plea for relevant material to be tabled in the Senate was disallowed, in order to provide for more scrutiny according to the government (Guardian, 20 June 2023). However, the long-running defamation trial involving Victoria Cross recipient, Ben Roberts-Smith – which on 1 June found the media not to have defamed Roberts-Smith with their allegations of his war crimes – sensationally ended a week in which Senator Lambie attacked defence chief Angus Campbell during estimates hearings, telling him that he should be stripped of his own Distinguished Service Cross if he wanted to take medals away from his subordinates (Australian Financial Review, 2 June 2023).

Following the Aston by-election in Victoria in April, Bass Liberal MHR Bridget Archer called for a return to a more centrist Liberal party (Sydney Morning Herald, 23 May 2023). Earlier, veteran Liberal influencer Brad Stansfield warned there were moves afoot to oust Archer from her seat when preselections were next held. Archer met with ‘teal’ Independent Kate Chaney in February, which was not popular with some party members (Guardian, 28 February 2023). Archer had crossed the floor at least twenty-seven times since her election including voting in favour of censure of former Prime Minister Morrison and against Peter Dutton's negative position on the Voice to Parliament.

In May, Treasurer Michael Ferguson brought down the state budget which he described as “safe” and “modest” with a forecast deficit of almost $300 million for the 2023–24 financial year, returning to a small surplus of $12.7 million in 2025–26. Despite measures to reduce costs through an efficiency dividend on public sector agencies of 0.75 per cent from 2024–25, to trim $300 m in spending over four years, predicted spending for the financial year was expected to rise by just over seven per cent compared to the 2022–23 budget estimate to $8.7 billion, with revenue of $8.4 billion – an increase of five per cent over the previous year. Health and education accounted for 60 per cent of budget expenditure. The budget also included new funding to address the rising cost of living, with a $45 million energy relief package as centrepiece of more than $347 million worth of initiatives (ABC News, 26 May 2023).

However, when compared to actual budget outcomes, this represented a cut in expenditure of 1.3 per cent and a drop in revenue of 0.4 per cent. State debt was forecast to grow to $3.4 billion in 2023–24, rising steadily to $5.6 billion over the subsequent four years with interest on the debt reaching $500 million next financial year, rising to $700 m in 2026–27, or about eight per cent of total expenditure (Mercury, 25 May 2023).

Treasurer Ferguson warned of “undoubtedly challenging economic headwinds” but said Tasmania's strong economy and budget had placed the state in a solid position to weather them. State final demand was expected to increase from just 1.5 to 2.75 per cent, unemployment to rise from four to 4.5 per cent and CPI to ease from 7.25 to 4.25 per cent in the year.