For much of the second half of 2023, Western Australian (WA) state politics adjusted to the new reality that the towering figure of Mark McGowan had departed. This departure immediately led many participants and observers to predict a return to more conventional political battles, and a much more even state election in 2025.
After taking office on 8 June, the new Premier of WA, Roger Cook did not enjoy much of a political honeymoon. Widespread criticism over new Aboriginal Cultural Heritage laws led to a humiliating government backflip, while the juvenile justice system witnessed tragedy and turmoil. Nevertheless, the government achieved some major legislative milestones, while a new electoral distribution for the 2025 state election renewed tensions between the Nationals and Liberals.
The first major electoral test for the Cook Government came on 29 July, in McGowan's old seat of Rockingham. Unsurprisingly, McGowan had been incredibly popular in Rockingham, achieving a primary vote of 82.75% in the 2021 election, representing a two-party preferred margin of 88-12 against the Liberals. In a drive for renewal, the Labor party selected 28-year-old Magenta Marshall, a former campaign strategist and electorate officer. For their part, the Liberal party selected resources recruitment consultant Peter Hudson, who was just 21. Hayley Edwards, Deputy Mayor for the City of Rockingham, failed to win Labor preselection, and then stood as an independent candidate. Whilst local issues featured prominently in the campaign, broader statewide issues such as the rising costs of living, Labor's contentious cultural heritage laws and the state of the public health system were all under the microscope.
Labor's performance in Rockingham under McGowan was unsustainable and the by-election did see a massive swing of 33% swing away from the Government. They still achieved a primary vote of 49% however, and the eventual two party preferred margin was 65-35 against the Liberals. Much of the swing from Labor did not go to the Liberals, but rather to a swag of other candidates; Edwards picked up 16%, just behind the Liberals, and finished second after preferences, while the Legalise Cannabis party achieved 7%, outpolling the Greens. The result indicated that the next state election in 2025 would be closer, but it was unclear how many people were ready to support the Liberals again.
The latter half of 2023 saw the official redistribution of the WA State Electoral Boundaries, for the 2025 election. The redistribution had to take into account population growth in Perth, and a decline in the population in regional WA, particularly in agricultural areas. Broadly speaking, the principal change was the merging of two regional seats both held by the National party, the seats of Moore and North West Central. Accompanying this was the creation of a new seat in Perth's southeastern suburbs called Oakford. Whilst the new boundaries delivered one additional no