New South Wales January to June 2023

Abstract

The Dominic Perrottet Coalition Government continued to be dogged by scandals as the 25 March election approached. In early January, enemies in the Premier's right faction leaked the fact that Perrottet had worn a Nazi uniform at his 21st birthday party (Guardian, 12 January; Sydney Morning Herald, 23 February 2023). Soon after, a Liberal MLC was disendorsed over his circulation of revealing photos of a female colleague (SMH, 18 February 2023). In February, Minister for Finance Damien Tudehope resigned over his failure to disclose shareholdings (Guardian, 17 February 2023). A report by the Auditor-General found that intervention by former Nationals Leader and Deputy Premier John Barilaro had prevented ALP electorates from receiving bushfire recovery funding (Guardian, 2 February 2023). A Legislative Council committee inquiry into allegations by a Liberal MP about improper dealings between Liberal members of Hills Shire Council and a major developer was impeded by the non-cooperation of Liberal activists, including two of the Premier's brothers (New South Wales Legislative Council, Portfolio Committee No. 7, Allegations of impropriety against agents of the Hills Shire Council and property developers in the region, Report No. 18, March 2023). The Independent Commission into Corruption, after the election, commenced an investigation into the allegations (SMH, 19 April 2023).

Factional divisions in the Liberal Party caused damaging in-fighting and delays in pre-selections. A month before polling day, the party did not have candidates selected in 20 seats (Australian, 27 January; SMH, 25 February 2023). Perrottet strongly pushed for the endorsement of more women candidates but with limited success. In the Liberal Party's heartland on Sydney's north shore, the party had only one female lower house candidate.

In spite of all this, a Newspoll released on 27 February showed the Coalition's primary vote was 37 per cent compared to Labor's 36 per cent; the two-party preferred vote was ALP 52 per cent to Coalition 48 per cent. This represented a swing to the Opposition, but not the 6.3 per cent two-party preferred swing needed to put it into office in its own right (Australian, 27 February 2023).

Arguably, the explanation came down to leadership. Perrottet, the conservative Catholic father of seven, initially seemed an unlikely successor to the popular Gladys Berejiklian, with a cadaverous look and awkward public presence. He proved to be a political pragmatist, however, moving to the left on social, environmental, and economic issues, particularly in response to the success of “teal” independents in the 2022 federal election. Perrottet also seems to have earned some public respect by his dogged, unflappable response to the troubles, not of his own making, that beset him. In the Newspoll referred to above, Perrottet was the preferred premier for 43 per cent of respondents compared to 33 per cent for Opposition Leader Chris Minns.

Minns, also a right wing Catholic family man, has been dogged throughout his career by claims that he is a “show pony” who has displayed more ambition than application to the job. A persistent criticism was that he had not been aggressive enough in using the Government's failings to destroy its standing. The Labor campaign was unexciting and lacklustre. There was much policy convergence between Government and Opposition, both attempting to outbid each other with a mundane series of pledges of more funds for areas of traditional concern such as health, education, energy, and housing affordability.

Minns unveiled a “Fresh Start” plan to reinvigorate New South Wales. It would provide cost of living relief for workers and families and improve basic services which the Government had neglected (Australian, 4 March 2023). Perrottet countered with a plan “to keep New South Wales moving forward”. He stressed that the Government had the leadership and experience to expand the economy, reduce pressure on household budgets, and invest in front-line services (Liberal Party of Australia NSW, Our Plan to Keep New South Wales Moving Forward, 2023).

One area of policy differentiation was problem gambling involving poker machines in registered clubs. Under pressure over the issue, Minns announced Labor would introduce a mandatory cashless gaming trial for 500 poker machines. He was trumped by Perrottet who gave a commitment to make all poker machines cashless within five years. Anti-gambling crusader Tim Costello described it as “the most significant and wide-ranging poker machine reforms that I have seen in more than 30 years of campaigning to limit gambling harm”. Labor's policy was widely criticised as inadequate (SMH, 15, 16 January, 6 February 2023).

The issues that dominated the campaign were public sector wages and privatisation. Minns promised to abolish the wage cap which had been put in place by the Government soon after it was elected. It had significantly contained recurrent expenditure but had resulted in public sector wages trailing the private sector and the inflation rate (SMH, 3 March 2023). Minns also took advantage of the unpopularity of privatisation, one of the Government's most consistent policies throughout its term, to launch an effective attack. He promised that there would be no further privatisation and blamed previous asset sales by the Coalition for rising electricity prices and toll road charges. The Opposition ran an effective scare campaign claiming that the Coalition was covertly planning to sell Sydney Water (Guardian, 28 February; SMH, 1 March 2023).

By the end of the campaign, the pundits and polls were predicting a close result, possibly a hung parliament. Newspoll on 24 March showed that Minns had made up ground in the campaign, leading Perrottet as preferred Premier by 41 per cent to 39 per cent. On primary votes, Labor led 38 per cent to 35 per cent; the ALP two-party preferred vote was 54.5 per cent (Australian, 24 March 2023).

By the usual laws of politics, Labor should have been set for a landslide victory against a twelve-year-old government that gave every indication of having been in office for too long, yet, surprisingly, it achieved a less than decisive victory. It appeared on election night that there had been a bigger than predicted swing to Labor which would see it take office comfortably. Unusually, as counting progressed, almost every seat in doubt was won by the Coalition, resulting in a minority Minns Government. In both Houses, the new Government will have to negotiate with a large crossbench to pass its legislation.

Labor won 45 seats, the Liberals 25, Nationals 11, and the Greens three (the same as in the previous Parliament); there were nine independents. The Government preserved its numbers on the floor of the House by appointing independent Greg Piper as Speaker. The Liberals lost six seats to Labor and two to independents (Wakehurst and Wollondilly). The Nationals lost Monaro to the ALP. All three former Shooters' Party MPs retained their seats as independents (Barwon, Orange, Murray). Gareth Ward, a former Liberal who was facing charges of sexual assault, was re-elected in Kiama as an independent. The three sitting independents, Alex Greenwich, Joe McGirr, and Greg Piper were all re-elected. The ALP primary vote was 37 per cent, a gain of 3.7 per cent. The Liberal primary vote was down by 5.2 per cent and the Nationals by 1 per cent. The Labor two-party preferred vote was 54.3 per cent.

In the new Legislative Council, Labor had fifteen MLCs (an increase of one), the same number as the Coalition (down two), the Greens four (up one), One Nation three (up one), the Shooters two (the same as in the previous Council), and the Animal Justice Party one (down one). Newcomers to the Council were Jeremy Buckingham, a former Green MLC, representing the Legalise Cannabis Party, and John Ruddick representing the Liberal Democrats. As in the lower house, the Government maintained its voting strength in the chamber by persuading National Ben Franklin to accept the Presidency.

Prior to the election, there was much speculation about challenges in safe Liberal seats from “teal” and independent candidates, hoping to replicate their counterparts' success at the 2022 federal election. Although there was potential for a groundswell of support, particularly given the lacklustre nature of some Liberal candidates, the optional preferential voting system and caps on fund-raising made their task difficult. All the federal “teals” who took seats from Liberals, under a compulsory preferential system, came second on first preferences and won on a favourable distribution of preferences. With an optional preferential system, many preferences that would have favoured “teal” and independent candidates exhausted. Although they achieved respectable votes, none of the five “teal” candidates were successful. Independent Larissa Penn came close to winning the seat of Willoughby from the Liberals. Michael Regan, who won the formerly safe Liberal seat of Wakehurst, was not endorsed by the “teals” and stood as an independent. Former Liberal Judy Hannan won Wollondilly as an independent.

On 28 March, Minns was sworn in as the 47^th Premier of New South Wales. Seven ministers were also sworn in: Prue Car, Deputy Premier and Minister for Education; Daniel Mookhey, Treasurer; Penny Sharpe, Environment and Heritage; Ryan Park, Health; Jo Haylen, Transport; Michael Daley, Attorney-General; and John Graham, Special Minister of State and Minister for Roads. Minns said that he had done this because he wanted to “hit the ground running and provide immediate leadership and direction”; the full ministry was sworn in on 5 April (NSW, Media Release, 5 April 2023). There were few surprises, with most shadow ministers being appointed to administer their area of responsibility. For the first time, women made up half of the ministry. Minns commented that a cabinet that reflected the make-up of the population should not be seen as exceptional. In the Legislative Assembly, 22 of 45 ALP MPs were women and in the Legislative Council, six of 15 MLCs (SMH, 6 April 2023).

Administratively, Minns announced he was abolishing the cluster model of departmental organisation favoured by the Coalition. The Department of Premier and Cabinet would revert to the Greiner and Carr Government model of two separate entities. Michael Coutts-Trotter, the head of the Premier's Department under Perrottet, was moved to Treasury. The heads of Treasury, Transport and Education were removed (SMH, Guardian, 14 April 2023).

Although Minns said he wanted to hit the ground running, the footprints were, in fact, light as he governed in the cautious style that had marked his approach to opposition. An indication of this was the large number of inquiries the Government established. Under the Coalition there had been a three-year investigation into the drug ‘ice’, the report of which went into the deep freeze. Some new ministers pushed for action but Minns announced he would convene a drug summit before making any decisions. Other reviews were announced into: toll roads, buses, Sydney trains, metro rail projects, cashless gaming, staffing ratios in hospitals, education policies and procedures, industrial relations, and workplace health and safety (SMH, 27 April 2023).

A key priority for the Government was the housing shortage and changes to the planning system to address this. According to Minns, initial briefings revealed a projected housing construction shortfall “of 134,000 dwellings over five years. The Government also inherited a planning system in which development approval processing times had blown out from 69 days on average in July 2021 to 116 days in March 2023. Residential house and unit rents have increased sharply over the past 12 months, signalling supply tightness” (NSW, Media Release, 15 June 2023).

Overall housing targets would not be increased but redistributed from Sydney's west to the east where there is established infrastructure (SMH, 19 June; Guardian, 3 July 2023). The Premier put much of the blame for the housing shortage on resistance to development by local councils:

Under the Government's new housing strategy:

The practical effect would be to allow developers who meet the criteria to bypass local councils and seek approval from the Independent Planning Commission or the Minister (SMH, 19 June 2023).

Minns also merged two planning agencies created by the previous Government, the Greater Cities Commission and Western Parklands City Authority, into the Department of Planning and Environment (DPE). According to the Government:

Greens spokeswoman, Cate Faehrmann, commented that the merger was “another worrying sign that developers were getting everything they asked for in the rush to drive up housing supply”. She added: “It really is starting to look like the developer lobby is saying ‘jump’ and the Minns Government is saying: ‘how high?’. This is incredibly concerning given the corrupting influence that developers have had over politics in this state” (SMH, 27 June 2023).

Predictably, both Labor and Liberal councils in inner Sydney and the northern and eastern suburbs, who were being targeted, were highly critical of the Government's new development approval procedures. The ALP Mayor of Waverley in Sydney's east, Paula Masselos, described the changes as too developer-friendly: “They're laughing, because they will have had significant windfall benefits as a result of putting in a few affordable housing units for a short period of time […] You're also cramming a whole lot more people in at the detriment to public amenity” (Guardian, 16 June 2023). Darcy Byrne, the Labor Mayor of Inner West Council, bluntly commented: “Punching down at councils won't fix housing supply and is no substitute for an actual policy. Many local governments are up for a mature discussion about increasing housing supply, but the government and the property industry lobby giving councils a regular kicking doesn't achieve anything” (SMH, 2 July 2023).

Tenants' rights groups were critical of the second provision, which they claimed would actually worsen the situation. Leo Patterson Ross of the New South Wales Tenants' Union said the new provision could be used by agents to drive up the price of a property by presenting offers with the aim of soliciting counterbids: “You're essentially in an auction, but without any of the transparency or regulation around an auction. You're dealing with people who are increasingly very anxious and very worried about where they're going to be sleeping, rejected from property after property. They are being essentially coerced into these offers of higher and higher prices” (Guardian, 11 May 2023). The crossbench also had reservations about the provision and flexed its muscles, with Opposition support, forcing the Government to refer the bill to a select committee (New South Wales Parliamentary Debates, 23 May 2023). Seeing the writing on the wall, the Government withdrew the contentious clause, a decision that the Committee endorsed.

Perrottet stepped down as Liberal leader but remained on the backbench. Deputy leader, Matt Kean, was the obvious successor but declined to stand; he also stepped down as Deputy. That left three leadership contenders: former Attorney-General Mark Speakman, a moderate; long-serving Minister and senior right winger Anthony Roberts; and Alister Henskens, a right-leaning former barrister and junior Minister. Henskens withdrew from the contest and on 21 April Speakman defeated Roberts, 22 votes to 13. Speakman's victory was the result of “a cross-factional deal between moderates, the centre right and some on the right including Perrottet” (SMH, 21, 23 April 2023). Former Metropolitan Roads Minister, moderate Natalie Ward, had Speakman's support to replace Kean as Deputy. However, as she was an MLC, a change to Liberal Party rules was needed to allow her to stand. This was agreed to and Ward defeated Wendy Tuckerman, the only other contender, 27 votes to eight (SMH, 8 May 2023).

Speakman adopted a progressive note, saying that although the Liberals retained their “timeless values” of “opportunity, of aspiration and reward for initiative”, they needed to win back the support of “young people, women and culturally diverse communities” to return to power (SMH, 21 April 2023).

Things were more turbulent in the Nationals. Former Agriculture Minister Dugald Saunders challenged leader Paul Toole and defeated him in a rancorous contest, ten votes to five. Saunders said he wanted to move the party's image away from “sucking on straw in a paddock” to regain the support of young professionals. He admitted that the party had not performed strongly at the election and needed to evolve to remind voters of what it stood for: “I'm not the same person as Paul Toole and I do things differently and I'm hoping that will bring different people with me on the journey” (Guardian, 8 May 2023).

On 29 June, the long-awaited report of the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC)'s investigation into the activities of former Premier Gladys Berejiklian and her former lover Daryl Maguire (Operation Keppel) was released. Berejiklian resigned as Premier on 1 October 2021 after ICAC announced it was holding public hearings into the Premier's involvement with Maguire. There was almost universal criticism of the time the inquiry had taken. Minns commented: “If you are an official or a public servant that is the subject of an inquiry, to hold your life up, effectively for years and years is just too long” (The Mandarin, 30 June 2023). He said the Government would change the ICAC Act to compel the Commission to set deadlines for its inquiries (SMH, 28 June 2023). The ICAC Inspector, Gail Furness SC, announced an investigation into why the report took so long to complete (Guardian, 30 June 2023).

ICAC found that both Maguire and Berejiklian had engaged in serious corrupt conduct. Maguire had improperly used his office and the resources to which he had access as MP for Wagga to advance his own financial interests, as well as the commercial interests of his associates, in connection with: G8way International, a company of which he was in substance a director and stood to profit from; an immigration scheme; and the sale and/or development of land.

ICAC noted that Maguire was

The Commission found that Berejiklian engaged in

Berejiklian had also “engaged in serious corrupt conduct by refusing to discharge her duty under section 11 of the ICAC Act to notify the Commission of her suspicion that Mr Maguire had engaged in activities which concerned, or might have concerned, corrupt conduct” (ICAC, Media Release, 29 June 2023).

ICAC referred the findings against Maguire to the Director of Public Prosecutions. However, it was of the view that Berejiklian's “conduct, while it constitutes or involves a substantial breach of the ministerial code [of conduct], is not so serious that it could be demonstrated to merit criminal punishment” (Guardian, 30 June 2023).

Defiant until the end, Berejiklian responded: “At all times I have worked my hardest in the public interest. Nothing in this report demonstrates otherwise”. Anne Davies in the Guardian perceptively commented: “Berejiklian either had to choose her personal life or her public life. Instead, she thought she could compartmentalise her life – to her great cost” (29 June 2023).