Impacts of 1.5 °C global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

Abstract

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape, while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5 °C of the Paris Agreement. This study investigated the impact of 1.5 °C global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria. The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5 °C warming. Sea ice is mostly less than three years old, and the younger, thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR. Ships above Polar Class (PC) 6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year. Besides, the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October–December, while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships. Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea, its surrounding straits, and the Parry Channel. These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping, and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.