Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004
Yao Xiao , Guo-Jie Hu , Ren Li , Tong-Hua Wu , Xiao-Dong Wu , Guang-Yue Liu , De-Fu Zou , Ji-Min Yao , Nan Zhou , Lin Zhao
Mid-latitude snow has broadly declined, but Northeast China (NEC) shows a seasonal divergence that remains insufficiently explained. We integrated a cloud-free 500 m MODIS snow-phenology record with passive-microwave snow depth for 2000–2020 to map changes and diagnose drivers. We quantified controls using Random Forest with SHAP and structural equation modeling. Autumn snow cover duration expanded in northern NEC, with rates up to 12 d per decade around 47°–50°N, consistent with localized cooling (−0.1 to −0.2 °C per decade) and greater precipitation. In spring, responses diverged: the Greater Khingan Mountains experienced accelerated melt under 0.3–0.9 °C per decade warming, whereas parts of the Songliao Plain retained snow longer. Temperature dominated variability, while precipitation, vegetation, and elevation showed seasonally asymmetric and terrain-dependent effects. These findings highlight overlooked regimes in transitional mid-latitudes: autumn expansion driven by early-season cooling and moisture supply versus spring divergence shaped by warming and terrain. The driver diagnostics provide process-oriented evidence for improving parameterizations of shallow, short-lived snow and elevation-dependent melt in regional climate and hydrological models.
中纬度地区的降雪量普遍下降，但东北地区的季节性差异仍未得到充分解释。我们将2000-2020年无云500 m MODIS雪物候记录与被动微波雪深相结合，绘制变化图并诊断驱动因素。我们使用随机森林与SHAP和结构方程建模来量化控制。东北地区北部的秋季积雪持续时间延长，在47°-50°N附近每10年增加12天，与局部降温（每10年−0.1至−0.2°C）和降水增加相一致。在春季，响应出现分歧：大兴安岭在每10年升温0.3-0.9°C的情况下加速融化，而松辽平原部分地区保留积雪的时间更长。温度主导变异，而降水、植被和海拔表现出季节不对称和地形依赖效应。这些发现突出了过渡性中纬度地区被忽视的机制：由季节早期的冷却和水分供应驱动的秋季扩张与由变暖和地形形成的春季分化。驱动诊断为改善区域气候和水文模型中浅层、短时间积雪和海拔相关融化的参数化提供了面向过程的证据。
{"title":"Autumn snow expansion and spring divergence in Northeast China (2000–2020)","authors":"Yao Xiao , Guo-Jie Hu , Ren Li , Tong-Hua Wu , Xiao-Dong Wu , Guang-Yue Liu , De-Fu Zou , Ji-Min Yao , Nan Zhou , Lin Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-latitude snow has broadly declined, but Northeast China (NEC) shows a seasonal divergence that remains insufficiently explained. We integrated a cloud-free 500 m MODIS snow-phenology record with passive-microwave snow depth for 2000–2020 to map changes and diagnose drivers. We quantified controls using Random Forest with SHAP and structural equation modeling. Autumn snow cover duration expanded in northern NEC, with rates up to 12 d per decade around 47°–50°N, consistent with localized cooling (−0.1 to −0.2 °C per decade) and greater precipitation. In spring, responses diverged: the Greater Khingan Mountains experienced accelerated melt under 0.3–0.9 °C per decade warming, whereas parts of the Songliao Plain retained snow longer. Temperature dominated variability, while precipitation, vegetation, and elevation showed seasonally asymmetric and terrain-dependent effects. These findings highlight overlooked regimes in transitional mid-latitudes: autumn expansion driven by early-season cooling and moisture supply versus spring divergence shaped by warming and terrain. The driver diagnostics provide process-oriented evidence for improving parameterizations of shallow, short-lived snow and elevation-dependent melt in regional climate and hydrological models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 105-116"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mid-latitude Asia, one of the world’s most extensive arid zones, exhibits heightened vulnerability to climate change, manifesting in pronounced surface warming and spatially heterogeneous drought patterns. While the central-western sector has experienced intensified aridification, the southeastern regions have maintained relatively stable conditions—a disparity whose mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study utilizes observational analysis and numerical modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and drivers of drought variability across mid-latitude Asia from 1982 to 2018, focusing on investigating the impacts of climate change and vegetation dynamics. Our findings reveal that the intensified Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) trend in central–western mid-latitude Asia (Xinjiang: −0.016 per year, p < 0.05; Mongolia: −0.017 per year, p < 0.05) can be attributed to rising surface temperatures and declining precipitation, mediated by a persistent high-pressure anomaly over the northwestern Mongolian Plateau. This high-pressure system reduces cloud cover, increases net radiation, enhances evaporation, and suppresses water vapor transport. These conditions contribute to elevated temperatures and decreased precipitation, exacerbating drought severity. In contrast, the southeastern region benefits from weaker climatic anomalies under global warming and more pronounced vegetation greening trend (North China: 0.15 per year, p < 0.05; Northeast China: 0.08 per year, p < 0.05), which mitigates drought through hydrological processes and land‒atmosphere interactions. The enhanced evapotranspiration related to greening lowers the surface temperature, thereby creating an atmospheric cold source that feedbacks into land and water cycles. These findings reveal a biogeophysical dichotomy in drought responses across mid-latitude Asia, advancing mechanistic understanding of dryland ecosystem resilience in the context of global warming.
{"title":"How vegetation greening mitigates climate-driven aridification in mid-latitude Asia","authors":"Xiao-Jing Jia , Qian-Jia Xie , Wei Dong , Qi-Feng Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-latitude Asia, one of the world’s most extensive arid zones, exhibits heightened vulnerability to climate change, manifesting in pronounced surface warming and spatially heterogeneous drought patterns. While the central-western sector has experienced intensified aridification, the southeastern regions have maintained relatively stable conditions—a disparity whose mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study utilizes observational analysis and numerical modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and drivers of drought variability across mid-latitude Asia from 1982 to 2018, focusing on investigating the impacts of climate change and vegetation dynamics. Our findings reveal that the intensified Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) trend in central–western mid-latitude Asia (Xinjiang: −0.016 per year, <em>p</em> < 0.05; Mongolia: −0.017 per year, <em>p</em> < 0.05) can be attributed to rising surface temperatures and declining precipitation, mediated by a persistent high-pressure anomaly over the northwestern Mongolian Plateau. This high-pressure system reduces cloud cover, increases net radiation, enhances evaporation, and suppresses water vapor transport. These conditions contribute to elevated temperatures and decreased precipitation, exacerbating drought severity. In contrast, the southeastern region benefits from weaker climatic anomalies under global warming and more pronounced vegetation greening trend (North China: 0.15 per year, <em>p</em> < 0.05; Northeast China: 0.08 per year, <em>p</em> < 0.05), which mitigates drought through hydrological processes and land‒atmosphere interactions. The enhanced evapotranspiration related to greening lowers the surface temperature, thereby creating an atmospheric cold source that feedbacks into land and water cycles. These findings reveal a biogeophysical dichotomy in drought responses across mid-latitude Asia, advancing mechanistic understanding of dryland ecosystem resilience in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 163-174"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-28DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005
Peng Gong , Chang-Wei Xie , Tong-Hua Wu , Wu Wang , Xiao-Fan Zhu , Jie Chen , Wen-Hui Liu
Rapid lake expansion and sudden outburst events have emerged as critical hydrological phenomena on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), reshaping endorheic basins and threatening downstream ecosystems and communities. However, the mechanisms and impacts of large endorheic lake failures remain poorly understood, as most studies have focused on glacial lake outbursts. The catastrophic outburst of Aksu Kule Lake (AKL) in the Kunlun Mountains in September 2024 provided a rare opportunity to investigate how prolonged hydrological accumulation in endorheic lakes on the QTP under climate change can trigger basin reorganization and flood disasters. In this study, multisource optical remote sensing data were integrated with ICESat and CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data to systematically assess changes in lake surface area and water level and to examine the underlying mechanisms driving rapid expansion and eventual catastrophic outbursts. The rapid expansion and subsequent outburst of AKL were driven primarily by increased precipitation, especially extreme short-term events in 2010 and 2016. These events contributed approximately 1.5 × 107 m3 and 7.4 × 107 m3 of additional lake water, respectively, accounting for 13.85% and 68.08%, respectively, of the total increase in net volume from 2009 to 2023. The final outburst was initiated by overtopping and subsequent erosion of unconsolidated alluvial fan sediments at the lake outlet, rather than by the structural failure of a natural dam, underscoring the inherent vulnerability of alluvial-dammed lakes. Following the AKL outburst, the Endere River Basin expanded by 81.4%, and the original hydrological regulation capacity of the lake was compromised, potentially resulting in an increased frequency and magnitude of floods in this basin. These findings enhance understanding of rapid lake expansion and outburst mechanisms and provide a scientific basis for early-warning systems and adaptive water management strategies in endorheic basins of the QTP under climate warming.
{"title":"Expansion and outburst process of Aksu Kule Lake in the Kunlun Mountains, Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau","authors":"Peng Gong , Chang-Wei Xie , Tong-Hua Wu , Wu Wang , Xiao-Fan Zhu , Jie Chen , Wen-Hui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid lake expansion and sudden outburst events have emerged as critical hydrological phenomena on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), reshaping endorheic basins and threatening downstream ecosystems and communities. However, the mechanisms and impacts of large endorheic lake failures remain poorly understood, as most studies have focused on glacial lake outbursts. The catastrophic outburst of Aksu Kule Lake (AKL) in the Kunlun Mountains in September 2024 provided a rare opportunity to investigate how prolonged hydrological accumulation in endorheic lakes on the QTP under climate change can trigger basin reorganization and flood disasters. In this study, multisource optical remote sensing data were integrated with ICESat and CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data to systematically assess changes in lake surface area and water level and to examine the underlying mechanisms driving rapid expansion and eventual catastrophic outbursts. The rapid expansion and subsequent outburst of AKL were driven primarily by increased precipitation, especially extreme short-term events in 2010 and 2016. These events contributed approximately 1.5 × 10<sup>7</sup> m<sup>3</sup> and 7.4 × 10<sup>7</sup> m<sup>3</sup> of additional lake water, respectively, accounting for 13.85% and 68.08%, respectively, of the total increase in net volume from 2009 to 2023. The final outburst was initiated by overtopping and subsequent erosion of unconsolidated alluvial fan sediments at the lake outlet, rather than by the structural failure of a natural dam, underscoring the inherent vulnerability of alluvial-dammed lakes. Following the AKL outburst, the Endere River Basin expanded by 81.4%, and the original hydrological regulation capacity of the lake was compromised, potentially resulting in an increased frequency and magnitude of floods in this basin. These findings enhance understanding of rapid lake expansion and outburst mechanisms and provide a scientific basis for early-warning systems and adaptive water management strategies in endorheic basins of the QTP under climate warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 139-151"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001
Hai-Peng Feng , Bo Su , Jian-Ping Duan , Hong-Yu Zhao , Tong Zhang , Cun-De Xiao
The intensification of extreme heat events is a potent thermal disturbance that can trigger abrupt permafrost degradation. However, a systematic understanding of their spatiotemporal variation across the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere (PRONH) is lacking, hindering predictions of regional-scale responses and climate feedback tipping points. In this study, six indices are systematically employed to analyse the historical spatiotemporal variations (1991–2020) of extreme heat events in the PRONH and to project their future changes (2021–2100) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), particularly across four permafrost types. The results indicate that the increasing trends of warm day (TA95p; 2.95 ± 0.56 d per decade), warmer day (TX95p; 3.20 ± 0.59 d per decade), warmest day (TXx; 0.35 ± 0.12 °C per decade), heatwave intensity (2.67 ± 0.96 °C per decade), heatwave frequency (0.23 ± 0.05 events per decade) and heatwave duration (0.54 ± 0.44 d per decade) were significant (p < 0.05) during 1991–2020. Under SSP5-8.5, the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are projected to experience 150–200 d TX95p annually, making such events routine by the late 21st century (2076–2100). Under the same scenario, continuous permafrost regions are projected to face the most severe exposure, with TX95p reaching 148 ± 24 d annually, whereas the discontinuous (134 ± 23 d), sporadic (130 ± 22 d) and isolated (109 ± 19 d) permafrost regions are expected to experience fewer extreme heat events. However, their fragmented distributions render them particularly vulnerable and heighten the risk of degradation. This study underscores the urgent need to integrate these extreme heat events into permafrost vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation strategies.
极端热事件的加剧是一种强有力的热扰动，可以引发永久冻土的突然退化。然而，缺乏对其在北半球多年冻土区（PRONH）的时空变化的系统理解，阻碍了区域尺度响应和气候反馈临界点的预测。本文采用6个指数系统分析了青藏高原极端热事件的历史时空变化特征（1991-2020年），并在共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）预测了未来（2021-2100年）极端热事件的变化，特别是在4种永久冻土类型下。结果表明：1991—2020年，暖日数（TA95p, 2.95±0.56 d / a）、暖日数（TX95p, 3.20±0.59 d / a）、最暖日数（TXx, 0.35±0.12°C / a）、热浪强度（2.67±0.96°C / a）、热浪频次（0.23±0.05次/ a）和热浪持续时间（0.54±0.44 d / a）呈显著增加趋势（p < 0.05）。在SSP5-8.5下，北极和青藏高原预计每年将经历150-200 d的TX95p，到21世纪末（2076-2100年）将成为常规事件。在相同情景下，连续多年冻土区预计将面临最严重的暴露，TX95p达到每年148±24 d，而不连续（134±23 d）、零星（130±22 d）和孤立（109±19 d）多年冻土区预计将经历较少的极端热事件。然而，它们分散的分布使它们特别脆弱，并增加了退化的风险。这项研究强调了将这些极端高温事件纳入永久冻土脆弱性评估和气候适应战略的迫切需要。
{"title":"Increasing extreme heat events in the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Hai-Peng Feng , Bo Su , Jian-Ping Duan , Hong-Yu Zhao , Tong Zhang , Cun-De Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of extreme heat events is a potent thermal disturbance that can trigger abrupt permafrost degradation. However, a systematic understanding of their spatiotemporal variation across the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere (PRONH) is lacking, hindering predictions of regional-scale responses and climate feedback tipping points. In this study, six indices are systematically employed to analyse the historical spatiotemporal variations (1991–2020) of extreme heat events in the PRONH and to project their future changes (2021–2100) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), particularly across four permafrost types. The results indicate that the increasing trends of warm day (TA95p; 2.95 ± 0.56 d per decade), warmer day (TX95p; 3.20 ± 0.59 d per decade), warmest day (TXx; 0.35 ± 0.12 °C per decade), heatwave intensity (2.67 ± 0.96 °C per decade), heatwave frequency (0.23 ± 0.05 events per decade) and heatwave duration (0.54 ± 0.44 d per decade) were significant (<em>p</em> < 0.05) during 1991–2020. Under SSP5-8.5, the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are projected to experience 150–200 d TX95p annually, making such events routine by the late 21st century (2076–2100). Under the same scenario, continuous permafrost regions are projected to face the most severe exposure, with TX95p reaching 148 ± 24 d annually, whereas the discontinuous (134 ± 23 d), sporadic (130 ± 22 d) and isolated (109 ± 19 d) permafrost regions are expected to experience fewer extreme heat events. However, their fragmented distributions render them particularly vulnerable and heighten the risk of degradation. This study underscores the urgent need to integrate these extreme heat events into permafrost vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 25-34"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-23DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003
You-Jing Fu , Guang-Hui Huang , Zi-Yan Huang , Xu-Feng Wang , Han Ma , Guo-Jiang Wang , Chun-Lin Huang , Xiao-Hua Hao , Peng-Fei Zhao
Cloud absorption of solar radiation strongly influences Earth’s radiation balance and climate change. Whether numerical models underestimate this absorption compared with observations has long been a highly debated issue in cloud–radiation research. Using state-of-the-art model-derived reanalyses, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2, and the latest collocated satellite-surface observation in 2012–2023, we reinvestigate this controversial issue. The results demonstrate the observed cloud absorption of solar radiation still notably exceeds the modeled (regardless of model products), but their discrepancy has dropped a lot, particularly for NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF ERA5. While a further investigation is needed, the reduced discrepancy may reflect the progress of shortwave radiation schemes in models, notably the integration of Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) and the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA). Additionally, it is noteworthy that there is not a perfect approach to obtaining the observed cloud absorption, and particularly the water vapor difference between clear and cloudy skies will often result in its unrealistic overestimation. If the impact from the water vapor difference is corrected, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2 underestimate globally-mean cloud absorption by approximately 8.26, 14.50 and 16.51 W/m2, respectively.
{"title":"Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?","authors":"You-Jing Fu , Guang-Hui Huang , Zi-Yan Huang , Xu-Feng Wang , Han Ma , Guo-Jiang Wang , Chun-Lin Huang , Xiao-Hua Hao , Peng-Fei Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cloud absorption of solar radiation strongly influences Earth’s radiation balance and climate change. Whether numerical models underestimate this absorption compared with observations has long been a highly debated issue in cloud–radiation research. Using state-of-the-art model-derived reanalyses, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2, and the latest collocated satellite-surface observation in 2012–2023, we reinvestigate this controversial issue. The results demonstrate the observed cloud absorption of solar radiation still notably exceeds the modeled (regardless of model products), but their discrepancy has dropped a lot, particularly for NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF ERA5. While a further investigation is needed, the reduced discrepancy may reflect the progress of shortwave radiation schemes in models, notably the integration of Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) and the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA). Additionally, it is noteworthy that there is not a perfect approach to obtaining the observed cloud absorption, and particularly the water vapor difference between clear and cloudy skies will often result in its unrealistic overestimation. If the impact from the water vapor difference is corrected, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2 underestimate globally-mean cloud absorption by approximately 8.26, 14.50 and 16.51 W/m<sup>2</sup>, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 12-24"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008
Zhong-Rui Bao , Yong-Kun Xie , Jin-Sen Shi , Min Zhao , Jia-Qin Mi
Extreme precipitation events pose growing risks across East Asia. Although various studies have examined the historical and future changes of extreme precipitation, substantial uncertainties in magnitudes and signs remain regarding future trends at the regional scale. Combining CMIP6 simulations with observations, we analyze historical changes and project more robust future extreme precipitation trends across four subregions. During 1979–2014, heavy precipitation cumulative intensity (HPCI) increased by 10.7 mm per decade (p < 0.05) in humid region and 12.2 mm per decade in the southern Tibetan Plateau, while it slightly increased (+0.1 mm per decade) in Northeast Asia and decreased (−0.1 mm per decade) in dryland. Although model simulations project increased HPCI across all subregions during 2015–2100, observation-constrained projections refine these projections, revealing more realistic and regionally divergent futures. Under SSP2-4.5, HPCI increases by 64% in the humid region and 119% in the southern Tibetan Plateau, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, with the magnitudes doubled under SSP5-8.5. Dryland shows moderate increases (35% under SSP2-4.5 and 26% under SSP5-8.5), whereas Northeast Asia declines slightly (−13% and −2%, respectively). Greenhouse gas emissions fuel the intensification of heavy rainfall in the humid region by elevating atmospheric humidity and altering large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, on the southern Tibetan Plateau, the increase in extreme precipitation is driven by greenhouse gases—through enhanced moisture delivery from the Bay of Bengal and upward motion—as well as by aerosol reduction, which modifies humidity and circulation. Our observation-constrained projections, coupled with mechanistic insights, yield more robust results than unconstrained ones—providing critical scientific support for climate-adaptive flood control and water management across East Asia's diverse regions.
极端降水事件给东亚地区带来越来越大的风险。尽管各种研究已经考察了极端降水的历史和未来变化，但在区域尺度上，未来趋势的幅度和迹象仍然存在很大的不确定性。将CMIP6模拟与观测相结合，我们分析了四个次区域的历史变化，并预测了未来更强劲的极端降水趋势。1979—2014年，青藏高原南部和湿润地区的强降水累积强度（HPCI）分别增加了10.7 mm / a （p < 0.05）和12.2 mm / a，东北亚地区略有增加（+0.1 mm / a），旱地地区则略有减少（- 0.1 mm / a）。尽管模式模拟预测2015-2100年期间所有次区域的HPCI都有所增加，但观测约束预测改进了这些预测，揭示了更现实和区域差异的未来。到21世纪末，在SSP2-4.5条件下，青藏高原南部和湿润地区的HPCI分别增加了64%和119%，在SSP5-8.5条件下，HPCI增加了一倍。旱地呈中等增长（SSP2-4.5下为35%，SSP5-8.5下为26%），而东北亚则略有下降（分别为- 13%和- 2%）。温室气体排放通过提高大气湿度和改变大尺度环流而加剧了潮湿地区的强降雨。与此同时，在青藏高原南部，极端降水的增加是由温室气体驱动的——通过孟加拉湾增强的水汽输送和上升运动——以及气溶胶的减少，后者改变了湿度和环流。我们在观测约束下的预测，加上对机制的洞察，得出的结果比不受约束的预测更可靠——为东亚不同地区的气候适应性洪水控制和水资源管理提供了关键的科学支持。
{"title":"Regional disparities in extreme precipitation trends across East Asia: Observation-constrained projection and attribution","authors":"Zhong-Rui Bao , Yong-Kun Xie , Jin-Sen Shi , Min Zhao , Jia-Qin Mi","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme precipitation events pose growing risks across East Asia. Although various studies have examined the historical and future changes of extreme precipitation, substantial uncertainties in magnitudes and signs remain regarding future trends at the regional scale. Combining CMIP6 simulations with observations, we analyze historical changes and project more robust future extreme precipitation trends across four subregions. During 1979–2014, heavy precipitation cumulative intensity (HPCI) increased by 10.7 mm per decade (<em>p</em> < 0.05) in humid region and 12.2 mm per decade in the southern Tibetan Plateau, while it slightly increased (+0.1 mm per decade) in Northeast Asia and decreased (−0.1 mm per decade) in dryland. Although model simulations project increased HPCI across all subregions during 2015–2100, observation-constrained projections refine these projections, revealing more realistic and regionally divergent futures. Under SSP2-4.5, HPCI increases by 64% in the humid region and 119% in the southern Tibetan Plateau, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, with the magnitudes doubled under SSP5-8.5. Dryland shows moderate increases (35% under SSP2-4.5 and 26% under SSP5-8.5), whereas Northeast Asia declines slightly (−13% and −2%, respectively). Greenhouse gas emissions fuel the intensification of heavy rainfall in the humid region by elevating atmospheric humidity and altering large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, on the southern Tibetan Plateau, the increase in extreme precipitation is driven by greenhouse gases—through enhanced moisture delivery from the Bay of Bengal and upward motion—as well as by aerosol reduction, which modifies humidity and circulation. Our observation-constrained projections, coupled with mechanistic insights, yield more robust results than unconstrained ones—providing critical scientific support for climate-adaptive flood control and water management across East Asia's diverse regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 35-47"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008
Lei Jin , Yi-Xiong Lu , Wei Hua , Jun-Ting Zhong , Xiao-Ye Zhang , Zhi-Li Wang , Xiao-Ge Xin , Jie Zhang , Tong-Wen Wu , De-Ying Wang , Da Zhang , Tian-Peng Wang
Achieving the 2 °C climate target requires the coordination of strategies for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants mitigation, yet their complex interactions remain insufficiently explored. BCC-ESM1 Earth system model is employed to compare global climate responses under the novel SSP2-com scenario, in which both GHGs and aerosols undergo reduction, with that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Moreover, the relative contributions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and black carbon (BC) to future temperature increases are analyzed. Results reveal that compared with the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the SSP2-com scenario can stabilize the end-21st-century temperature rise well below 2 °C, primarily driven by the reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. A mid-term warming rebound between 2061 and 2080 is observed due to reduced aerosol cooling. SO2 reductions result in a weakening aerosol-induced radiative forcing, driving regional warming asymmetries—particularly in northern high latitudes (up to +1.5 °C in winter). Compared to CO2-only mitigation, experiments involving SO2 reductions also exhibit stronger global precipitation increases, suggesting an acceleration of the hydrological cycle under lower aerosol loading. Energy budget analysis further indicates that SO2 mitigation results in an increase in net shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere by approximately 0.23 W/m2 during the mid-term (2061–2080), and consequently leads to an accumulated surface energy gain of about 0.15 W/m2. These findings highlight a key trade-off: aerosol mitigation may induce mid-term warming, but remains essential for achieving air quality and climate goals. This work underscores the necessity of balancing mid-term climate–air quality trade-offs with long-term decarbonization, offering actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated pathways align with the Paris Agreement.
{"title":"Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 °C climate futures","authors":"Lei Jin , Yi-Xiong Lu , Wei Hua , Jun-Ting Zhong , Xiao-Ye Zhang , Zhi-Li Wang , Xiao-Ge Xin , Jie Zhang , Tong-Wen Wu , De-Ying Wang , Da Zhang , Tian-Peng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving the 2 °C climate target requires the coordination of strategies for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants mitigation, yet their complex interactions remain insufficiently explored. BCC-ESM1 Earth system model is employed to compare global climate responses under the novel SSP2-com scenario, in which both GHGs and aerosols undergo reduction, with that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Moreover, the relative contributions of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), and black carbon (BC) to future temperature increases are analyzed. Results reveal that compared with the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the SSP2-com scenario can stabilize the end-21st-century temperature rise well below 2 °C, primarily driven by the reduction of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. A mid-term warming rebound between 2061 and 2080 is observed due to reduced aerosol cooling. SO<sub>2</sub> reductions result in a weakening aerosol-induced radiative forcing, driving regional warming asymmetries—particularly in northern high latitudes (up to +1.5 °C in winter). Compared to CO<sub>2</sub>-only mitigation, experiments involving SO<sub>2</sub> reductions also exhibit stronger global precipitation increases, suggesting an acceleration of the hydrological cycle under lower aerosol loading. Energy budget analysis further indicates that SO<sub>2</sub> mitigation results in an increase in net shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere by approximately 0.23 W/m<sup>2</sup> during the mid-term (2061–2080), and consequently leads to an accumulated surface energy gain of about 0.15 W/m<sup>2</sup>. These findings highlight a key trade-off: aerosol mitigation may induce mid-term warming, but remains essential for achieving air quality and climate goals. This work underscores the necessity of balancing mid-term climate–air quality trade-offs with long-term decarbonization, offering actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated pathways align with the Paris Agreement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.010
Na Dong , Zhen Liu , Ru Xu , Hua-Bing Huang
There is a noticeable greening trend observed in China over the first two decades of the 21st century attributed to both vegetation growth and type transition. However, the comparative impacts of these two greening on local climate and their associated biophysical mechanism have not been well appreciated, which is essential and beneficial for the development of regional ecological programs and climate mitigation. This study disentangles the influences of vegetation growth and type transitions on land surface temperature (LST) in southwestern China, employing a space-for-time approach utilizing satellite images from 2002–2022. Findings indicate that type transitions yield a more pronounced LST cooling, reaching 2–3 times that of vegetation growth. Leaf area index (LAI) induced cooling is the highest in cropland to grassland transition, with a remarkable decrease of −0.058 ± 0.049 K, while the greatest cooling in vegetation growth is in grassland growth, achieving −0.031 ± 0.033 K. The highest LST sensitivity for type transitions is in Guangxi at −1.49 ± 0.52 K, whereas for vegetation growth is in Guizhou at −1.11 ± 0.28 K. Both types of greening exhibit cooling impacts predominantly driven by evapotranspiration, offsetting the albedo warming effect. Additionally, both albedo and LST sensitivities gradually decay with the increasing of greening degree to higher LAI saturation. This highlights both vegetation growth and type transitions contribute to local cooling with different intensity and effectiveness across vegetation types and regions. It is critical to consider their distinctions comprehensively and individually when formulating regional ecological programs and climate mitigation measures.
{"title":"Contrasting biophysical impacts of vegetation growth and type transition greening on local temperature in Southwestern China","authors":"Na Dong , Zhen Liu , Ru Xu , Hua-Bing Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a noticeable greening trend observed in China over the first two decades of the 21st century attributed to both vegetation growth and type transition. However, the comparative impacts of these two greening on local climate and their associated biophysical mechanism have not been well appreciated, which is essential and beneficial for the development of regional ecological programs and climate mitigation. This study disentangles the influences of vegetation growth and type transitions on land surface temperature (LST) in southwestern China, employing a space-for-time approach utilizing satellite images from 2002–2022. Findings indicate that type transitions yield a more pronounced LST cooling, reaching 2–3 times that of vegetation growth. Leaf area index (LAI) induced cooling is the highest in cropland to grassland transition, with a remarkable decrease of −0.058 ± 0.049 K, while the greatest cooling in vegetation growth is in grassland growth, achieving −0.031 ± 0.033 K. The highest LST sensitivity for type transitions is in Guangxi at −1.49 ± 0.52 K, whereas for vegetation growth is in Guizhou at −1.11 ± 0.28 K. Both types of greening exhibit cooling impacts predominantly driven by evapotranspiration, offsetting the albedo warming effect. Additionally, both albedo and LST sensitivities gradually decay with the increasing of greening degree to higher LAI saturation. This highlights both vegetation growth and type transitions contribute to local cooling with different intensity and effectiveness across vegetation types and regions. It is critical to consider their distinctions comprehensively and individually when formulating regional ecological programs and climate mitigation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 175-188"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002
Hong-Shuo Yan , Xian-Chun Tan , Yong-Long Cheng , Kai-Wei Zhu
Carbon neutrality and the Global Goal on Adaptation jointly drive the integration of mitigation and adaptation; however, a clear conceptual and analytical framework for their synergy remains absent. This study first examines the components of mitigation and adaptation, and analyzes the mechanisms through which they interact. It then explores the fundamental principles underlying the synergy between mitigation and adaptation, and construct a corresponding analytical framework. It emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are mutually influential, providing a foundation for achieving synergy. Furthermore, synergy should be promoted in the five aspects of objectives, regions, sectors, pathways, and policies—and follows the logic of Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR). Based on this, an analytical framework is developed to clarify the interactive relationship between mitigation and adaptation at regional and sectoral levels, while integrating multiple methodologies including scenario analysis, climate models, and policy evaluation. This framework provides a basic process and conceptual model, overcoming the present lack of systematic quantitative assessment methods. In the future, it will be necessary to identify critical regions or sectors and corresponding pathway measures, develop and apply quantitative methodologies, and explore how to build a synergistic policy system that supports both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
{"title":"Study on the concept and framework of synergy between mitigation and adaptation","authors":"Hong-Shuo Yan , Xian-Chun Tan , Yong-Long Cheng , Kai-Wei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon neutrality and the Global Goal on Adaptation jointly drive the integration of mitigation and adaptation; however, a clear conceptual and analytical framework for their synergy remains absent. This study first examines the components of mitigation and adaptation, and analyzes the mechanisms through which they interact. It then explores the fundamental principles underlying the synergy between mitigation and adaptation, and construct a corresponding analytical framework. It emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are mutually influential, providing a foundation for achieving synergy. Furthermore, synergy should be promoted in the five aspects of objectives, regions, sectors, pathways, and policies—and follows the logic of Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR). Based on this, an analytical framework is developed to clarify the interactive relationship between mitigation and adaptation at regional and sectoral levels, while integrating multiple methodologies including scenario analysis, climate models, and policy evaluation. This framework provides a basic process and conceptual model, overcoming the present lack of systematic quantitative assessment methods. In the future, it will be necessary to identify critical regions or sectors and corresponding pathway measures, develop and apply quantitative methodologies, and explore how to build a synergistic policy system that supports both mitigation and adaptation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 189-198"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. In situ observations are sparse due to its harsh environment, making reanalysis datasets an essential alternative. However, their accuracy over Greenland—particularly in high-altitude and inland regions—remains uncertain, necessitating a systematic evaluation. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate four major reanalysis products—ERA5, ERA5-Land, MERRA-2 and NCEP/DOE R2—using observational data from 51 automatic weather stations across the Greenland Ice Sheet. We analyse accuracy in five key atmospheric variables (2 m air temperature, surface pressure, 10 m wind speed, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation) across three temporal resolutions: monthly, daily and hourly. The results show that over the evaluation period (2018–2022), ERA5 and MERRA-2 consistently outperform the other considered products. ERA5 performs the best in temperature and pressure, with monthly temperature and pressure biases below 2.5 °C and 6 hPa, respectively, and strong consistency across time scales; at the same time, MERRA-2 exhibits the best accuracy in shortwave radiation in certain seasons, with hourly downwelling shortwave radiation correlation coefficients exceeding 0.92 in all four seasons, mainly because its aerosol and radiation processes better capture seasonal variability in atmospheric clarity and solar energy reaching the surface. ERA5-Land, despite its finer resolution, systematically underestimates summer shortwave radiation levels and features inconsistent wind speed accuracy. NCEP/DOE R2 shows pronounced errors across all variables and is not recommended for use in modern climate studies. Spatial analyses further reveal that the considered reanalysis products show the best accuracy along the coast and lower accuracy in the high-elevation interior. These findings offer essential guidance for the selection of suitable reanalysis products in climate and surface mass balance studies on Greenland.
{"title":"Comprehensive evaluation of multi-source reanalysis datasets for surface atmospheric parameters over the Greenland Ice Sheet","authors":"Zhi-Min Chen , Zhao-Liang Zeng , Ming-Hu Ding , Ya-Qiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. <em>In situ</em> observations are sparse due to its harsh environment, making reanalysis datasets an essential alternative. However, their accuracy over Greenland—particularly in high-altitude and inland regions—remains uncertain, necessitating a systematic evaluation. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate four major reanalysis products—ERA5, ERA5-Land, MERRA-2 and NCEP/DOE R2—using observational data from 51 automatic weather stations across the Greenland Ice Sheet. We analyse accuracy in five key atmospheric variables (2 m air temperature, surface pressure, 10 m wind speed, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation) across three temporal resolutions: monthly, daily and hourly. The results show that over the evaluation period (2018–2022), ERA5 and MERRA-2 consistently outperform the other considered products. ERA5 performs the best in temperature and pressure, with monthly temperature and pressure biases below 2.5 °C and 6 hPa, respectively, and strong consistency across time scales; at the same time, MERRA-2 exhibits the best accuracy in shortwave radiation in certain seasons, with hourly downwelling shortwave radiation correlation coefficients exceeding 0.92 in all four seasons, mainly because its aerosol and radiation processes better capture seasonal variability in atmospheric clarity and solar energy reaching the surface. ERA5-Land, despite its finer resolution, systematically underestimates summer shortwave radiation levels and features inconsistent wind speed accuracy. NCEP/DOE R2 shows pronounced errors across all variables and is not recommended for use in modern climate studies. Spatial analyses further reveal that the considered reanalysis products show the best accuracy along the coast and lower accuracy in the high-elevation interior. These findings offer essential guidance for the selection of suitable reanalysis products in climate and surface mass balance studies on Greenland.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 48-64"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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