A Bayesian analysis of e-cigarette risk perceptions in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Public Health England has communicated that e-cigarettes provide at least a 95% risk reduction compared to conventional cigarettes. This article's survey evidence indicates that adults in the United Kingdom believe that e-cigarettes are only 30%–40% safer overall and that they reduce lung cancer risks and total mortality risks by a similar percentage. A Bayesian analysis of risk beliefs finds that e-cigarette risk perceptions are anchored on prior cigarette risk beliefs. The public, especially smokers, underestimates the magnitude of the risk reduction being communicated by public health officials. Those who are aware of e-cigarette messages from Public Health England assess lower risks of e-cigarettes, but they still underestimate the relative risk reduction. Even people with favorable qualitative beliefs about the harm reduction provided by e-cigarettes overestimate the riskiness of e-cigarettes.