Relationship between economic growth and marine ecological environment based on VAR models

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the inherent correlation between economic growth and marine conservation in the coastal regions of China, specifically the shifting relationship between high and low economic growth periods and marine pollution. A nonlinear model is employed to determine the dynamic relationship based on historical data, with the inclusion of a nonlinear zone system transfer factor to achieve this dynamic relationship. The study's data was sourced from a statistical database of 11 Chinese coastal provinces, containing details on economic growth rates and emissions of industrial waste. In the study, significant differences in the mean, variance and smoothing probability of the different provinces were observed in the different systems. Notably, Shandong recorded the highest mean μ2 in both systems, 0.7261* and 0.7261**, while the correlation coefficient between the two systems in the high growth area was −0.3543. Significant differences exist in the intrinsic links between economic growth and marine environmental protection within provinces and cities. Therefore, targeted strategies must be developed for specific regions when formulating economic and environmental policies.