Development of a clinical prediction rule for mobility status at discharge in patients with total knee arthroplasty: Using a decision tree model

Abstract

Background

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is an effective treatment to improve mobility in patients with severe knee osteoarthritis. However, some patients continue to have poor mobility after surgery. The preoperative identification of patients with poor mobility after TKA allows for better treatment selection and appropriate goal setting. The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to predict mobility after TKA.

Methods

This study included patients undergoing primary TKA. Predictors of outcome included patient characteristics, physical function, and psychological factors, which were measured preoperatively. The outcome measure was the Timed Up and Go test, which was measured at discharge. Patients with a score of ≥11 s were considered having a low-level of mobility. The classification and regression tree methodology of decision tree analysis was used for developing a CPR.

Results

Of the 101 cases (mean age, 72.2 years; 71.3 % female), 26 (25.7 %) were classified as low-mobility. Predictors were the modified Gait Efficacy Scale, age, knee pain on the operated side, knee extension range of motion on the non-operated side, and Somatic Focus, a subscale of the Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia (short version). The model had a sensitivity of 50.0 %, a specificity of 98.7 %, a positive predictive value of 92.9 %, a positive likelihood ratio of 37.5, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.853.

Conclusion

We have developed a CPR that, with some accuracy, predicts the mobility outcomes of patients after TKA. This CPR may be useful for predicting postoperative mobility and clinical goal setting.