Interpretable spatio-temporal modeling for soil temperature prediction

Abstract

Soil temperature (ST) is a crucial parameter in Earth system science. Accurate ST predictions provide invaluable insights; however, the “black box” nature of many deep learning approaches limits their interpretability. In this study, we present the Encoder-Decoder Model with Interpretable Spatio-Temporal Component (ISDNM) to enhance both ST prediction accuracy and its spatio-temporal interpretability. The ISDNM combines a CNN-encoder-decoder and an LSTM-encoder-decoder to improve spatio-temporal feature representation. It further uses linear regression and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) techniques for clearer spatio-temporal visualization of ST. The results show that the ISDNM model had the highest R2 ranging from 0.886 to 0.963 and the lowest RMSE ranging from 6.086 m3/m3 to 12.533 m3/m3 for different climate regions, and demonstrated superior performance than all the other DL models like CNN, LSTM, ConvLSTM models. The predictable component highlighted the remarkable similarity between Medium fine and Very fine soils in China. Additional, May and November emerged as crucial months, acting as inflection points in the annual ST cycle, shaping ISDNM model’s prediction capabilities.