Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data

IF 0.9 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI:10.1134/s0001433823070058

A. D. Zavyalov, A. N. Morozov, I. M. Aleshin, S. D. Ivanov, K. I. Kholodkov, V. A. Pavlenko

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Abstract

This article is the second in a series devoted to the modification of the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) method of medium-term earthquake forecasting. The description of algorithms for preparing and analyzing initial data and the results of their application are presented. In particular, the following additional functional capabilities have been achieved: (1) the creation of various computational grids for further spatial and temporal scanning of the earthquake catalog within the analyzed seismic active region, (2) the declustering of earthquake catalogs and evaluation of representative values of energy classes (magnitudes) in space and time, and (3) the evaluation of time interval length for calculating the background parameters of prognostic features. The overall result of successful scientific and technical work will be the creation of an upgraded method for medium-term earthquake prediction taking into account the spatial distribution of earthquake sources, the integrated use of physically based earthquake precursors, the results of seismic zoning in the form of a lineament–domain–focal (LDF) model, and other related areas of research.

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修正的中期地震预报方法：地震预测地图。处理和分析初始数据

摘要本文是专门讨论中期地震预报的预期地震图（MEE）方法修改的系列文章中的第二篇。文章介绍了用于准备和分析初始数据的算法及其应用结果。特别是实现了以下附加功能：(1) 创建各种计算网格，以便在分析的地震活跃区内对地震目录进行进一步的空间和时间扫描；(2) 对地震目录进行解聚，并在空间和时间上评估能量等级（震级）的代表值；(3) 评估用于计算预报特征背景参数的时间间隔长度。科学和技术工作取得成功的总体结果将是，在考虑震源空间分布、综合利用基于物理的地震前兆、以线-域-焦点（LDF）模型为形式的地震区划结果以及其他相关研究领域的情况下，创建一种升级的中期地震预测方法。

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来源期刊

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics is a journal that publishes original scientific research and review articles on vital issues in the physics of the Earth’s atmosphere and hydrosphere and climate theory. The journal presents results of recent studies of physical processes in the atmosphere and ocean that control climate, weather, and their changes. These studies have possible practical applications. The journal also gives room to the discussion of results obtained in theoretical and experimental studies in various fields of oceanic and atmospheric physics, such as the dynamics of gas and water media, interaction of the atmosphere with the ocean and land surfaces, turbulence theory, heat balance and radiation processes, remote sensing and optics of both media, natural and man-induced climate changes, and the state of the atmosphere and ocean. The journal publishes papers on research techniques used in both media, current scientific information on domestic and foreign events in the physics of the atmosphere and ocean.