Assessment of Changes in the Temperature Regime of Northern Eurasia for the Next Five Years According to the INM RAS Earth System Model Forecasts and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture

IF 1.4 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923090029
V. M. Khan, R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, S. V. Emelina, A. S. Gritsun, E. M. Volodin, V. V. Vorobyeva, M. A. Tarasevich
{"title":"Assessment of Changes in the Temperature Regime of Northern Eurasia for the Next Five Years According to the INM RAS Earth System Model Forecasts and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture","authors":"V. M. Khan, R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, S. V. Emelina, A. S. Gritsun, E. M. Volodin, V. V. Vorobyeva, M. A. Tarasevich","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923090029","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923090029","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.

Abstract Image

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
根据 INM RAS 地球系统模式预测评估未来五年欧亚大陆北部气温变化及其对农业的可能影响
摘要 介绍了未来五年欧亚大陆北部气温变化特征的估计。这些估计基于俄罗斯科学院马尔丘克数值数学研究所开发的地球气候模型的预测。使用远程预测的标准技能分数对欧亚大陆北部的预测技能进行了讨论。确定了地表气温异常有可能超过《巴黎协定》阈值目标的地区。分析了农业生长季节和稳定气温高于 5°C 的日期可能发生变化的后果。所提出的对欧亚大陆北部五年间气温特征可能发生的变化的估计,为预期气候变化提供了更客观的模式,有助于确定在不断变化的气候中发展农业部门的最佳解决方案,并最大限度地减少可能产生的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.70
自引率
28.60%
发文量
44
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.
期刊最新文献
Extreme Heat Waves and Extreme Summer Seasons in European Russia Influence of the Summer Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation on the Vertical Fluxes of Heat and Moisture in Russian Landscape Zones Variational Assimilation of the SMAP Surface Soil Moisture Retrievals into an Integrated Urban Land Model Features of the Thermal Regime of the Middle Atmosphere over Western Siberia from the Data of Many-year Lidar Monitoring Analysis of the Variations in the Lightning Activity of a Hail Process (August 19, 2015, the North Caucasus)
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1