Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Surge and Stop Episodes

IF 1.5 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Open Economies Review Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI:10.1007/s11079-023-09744-3

Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, Turalay Kenc, Unay Tamgac Tezcan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

When faced with capital flow and credit growth waves in recent years, policymakers have relied upon macroprudential regulation. This paper sheds light on a relatively less-analyzed policy issue: how macroprudential regulatory measures mitigate extreme credit growth episodes. We use a dynamic panel data approach to estimate the impact of MaPPs on credit growth volatility and the likelihood of credit growth boom and bust episodes. We find that MaPPs reduce credit growth volatility in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). In addition, MaPPs help to prevent credit surges in EMEs and stops in AEs. Our results show that there is a strong link between net capital flows and credit growth stop episodes. Net capital flow surges trigger a credit surge for EMEs. This suggests that policymakers should consider both MaPPs and capital flow management measures when designing policies to mitigate the risks associated with these phenomena.

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宏观审慎政策对信贷激增和停止事件的效果

近年来，面对资本流动和信贷增长的浪潮，政策制定者依赖于宏观审慎监管。本文揭示了一个相对较少分析的政策问题：宏观审慎监管措施如何缓解极端信贷增长事件。我们使用动态面板数据方法来估计宏观审慎监管措施对信贷增长波动性以及信贷增长繁荣和萧条事件发生可能性的影响。我们发现，在发达经济体（AEs）和新兴市场经济体（EMEs）中，购买力平价都能降低信贷增长的波动性。此外，购买力平价还有助于防止新兴市场经济体的信贷激增和发达经济体的信贷停止。我们的研究结果表明，净资本流动与信贷增长停止事件之间存在密切联系。净资本流动激增会引发新兴市场经济体信贷激增。这表明，政策制定者在制定政策以降低与这些现象相关的风险时，应同时考虑购买力平价和资本流动管理措施。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Open Economies Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The topics covered in Open Economies Review include, but are not limited to, models and applications of (1) trade flows, (2) commercial policy, (3) adjustment mechanism to external imbalances, (4) exchange rate movements, (5) alternative monetary regimes, (6) real and financial integration, (7) monetary union, (8) economic development and (9) external debt. Open Economies Review welcomes original manuscripts, both theoretical and empirical, dealing with international economic issues or national economic issues that have transnational relevance. Furthermore, Open Economies Review solicits contributions bearing on specific events on important branches of the literature. Open Economies Review is open to any and all contributions, without preferences for any particular viewpoint or school of thought. Open Economies Review encourages interdisciplinary communication and interaction among researchers in the vast area of international and transnational economics. Authors will be expected to meet the scientific standards prevailing in their respective fields, and empirical findings must be reproducible. Regardless of degree of complexity and specificity, authors are expected to write an introduction, setting forth the nature of their research and the significance of their findings, in a manner accessible to researchers in other disciplines. Officially cited as: Open Econ Rev

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