Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

Abstract

Background

We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO₂ emissions in recent years (2018–2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation.

Results

This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO₂ emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO₂ eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43–20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario.

Conclusion

The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.