A stochastic logistics model for Indonesia's national freight transport model: Transport chain choice from the shipper perspective

Lydia Novitriana Nur Hidayati , Gerard De Jong , Anthony Whiteing
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Abstract

This paper presents research towards the development of a stochastic approach for estimating the transport chain choice for domestic shipments in Indonesia. This stochastic model aims to improve the logistics choices within Indonesia's national freight transport model (INTRAMOD), which currently handles such choice deterministically. The INTRAMOD logistics model presents five distinct transport chain possibilities involving four main modes: truck, rail, ship, and plane. To acquire the necessary data, revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) survey work has been undertaken. Using the obtained RP/SP data, multinomial logit (MNL) models have been used to estimate the transport choice model. The model with a single time coefficient was found to be superior to the other models. Additionally, this preferred MNL model was extended by segmenting according to shipment characteristics, particularly for high and low value of goods. The results indicate that shipments with a high value of goods are more sensitive to transport time.

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印度尼西亚国家货运模式的随机物流模型:从托运人角度选择运输链
本文介绍了为估算印度尼西亚国内货运的运输链选择而开发的随机方法的研究。该随机模型旨在改进印尼国家货运模型(INTRAMOD)中的物流选择,目前该模型是以确定性方式处理物流选择的。INTRAMOD 物流模型提供了五种不同的运输链可能性,涉及四种主要模式:卡车、铁路、轮船和飞机。为了获得必要的数据,我们开展了显性偏好(RP)和显性偏好(SP)调查工作。利用获得的 RP/SP 数据,使用多叉对数(MNL)模型来估算运输选择模型。结果发现,单一时间系数模型优于其他模型。此外,还根据货物特点,特别是高价值和低价值货物的特点,对这一首选 MNL 模型进行了扩展。结果表明,高价值货物对运输时间更为敏感。
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