Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Model for Hydroelectricity Energy Investments

Abstract

The risks of hydroelectricity energy investments should be managed effectively to increase the performance of these projects. Thus, more significant risks should be identified to take effective measures for risk management without experiencing high costs. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to define critical risks in hydroelectricity energy investment projects by making a priority analysis. Within this scope, a new decision-making model is created. In the first stage, five different risks are examined by considering Spherical fuzzy Entropy. Moreover, the second stage consists of ranking emerging seven countries with the help of Spherical fuzzy multi-attribute ideal-real comparative assessment (MAIRCA). The main contribution of this study is that more important risks of hydroelectricity energy investments can be identified by the help of the priority analysis. This situation provides an opportunity to implement effective strategies to increase these investments without having high costs. Additionally, considering Spherical fuzzy sets has a positive impact on the appropriateness of the results. Since these numbers use a wider data range, the effectiveness of the analysis results can increase. It is determined that the most important risk is environmental risk with the highest weight value of 0.2478. Financial risks and personnel risks are other significant factors that affect the performance of the hydroelectricity energy investments. Furthermore, as a result of ranking the alternatives, it is seen that China is the most suitable country for hydroelectric energy investments. India and Mexico are other successful countries in this respect. However, Turkey and Indonesia have lower performance for this situation.