Future projections of precipitation and temperature extremes at Sohra (Cherrapunji) using Statistical Downscaling Model

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES MAUSAM Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI:10.54302/mausam.v75i1.6081
Raju Kalita, Dipangkar Kalita, Atul K. Saxena
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Abstract

The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM 4.2) is used to project the future precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at Sohra, one of the extreme places on earth, using the predictors of the Second-Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The SDSM was calibrated with daily precipitation and temperature data from 1979 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2020. Future scenarios generated under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are divided into three future periods, Near Future (2021-2040), Mid Future (2041-2071), and Far Future (2071-2100). It is found that the precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature at Sohra are influenced mainly by the major global predictors; specific humidity at 850 hPa height (s850) and mean temperature at 2 m (temp)/near surface specific humidity (shum), respectively. The downscaled result reveals an increase in Monsoon precipitation in the range of 266-1543 mm under various RCPs compared with the base periods 1985-2005 during the Near Future and 1979-2008 during the Mid and Far Future. Also, annual maximum and minimum temperature increases in the range of 1-2.8 °C and 1.2-3.6 °C for all RCPs in the future.
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利用统计降尺度模型预测索拉(切拉蓬吉)未来的极端降水和温度
利用第二代加拿大地球系统模型(CanESM2)的预测因子,使用统计降尺度模型(SDSM 4.2)预测地球上极端地区之一索拉未来的降水量和最高、最低气温。第二代加拿大地球系统模式利用 1979 年至 2005 年的日降水量和温度数据进行了校准,并在 2006 年至 2020 年期间进行了验证。在三种代表性浓度路径(RCP)2.6、4.5 和 8.5 下生成的未来情景被分为三个未来时期,即近期未来(2021-2040 年)、中期未来(2041-2071 年)和远期未来(2071-2100 年)。研究发现,索赫拉的降水量和最高/最低气温主要受全球主要预测因子的影响,即 850 hPa 高度的比湿度(s850)和 2 米处的平均气温(temp)/近地面比湿度(shum)。降尺度结果显示,与近未来的 1985-2005 年基期和中远未来的 1979-2008 年基期相比,各种 RCPs 下的季风降水量增加了 266-1543 毫米。此外,在所有 RCPs 中,未来年最高和最低气温的升幅分别为 1-2.8 ℃ 和 1.2-3.6 ℃。
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来源期刊
MAUSAM
MAUSAM 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
1298
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.
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