Development of Synoptic Analogue Model for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Cauvery basin, India

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES MAUSAM Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI:10.54302/mausam.v75i1.5099

R. M, Dr. Geeta Agnihotri

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Abstract

Daily Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) data of South West Monsoon Season for 2012 to 2020 in respect of sub-basins of Cauvery river basin were collected alongwith synoptic systems causing rainfall in the sub-basins. Five synoptic systems namely Depression/Deep Depression, low/well marked low(WML) pressure area, Upper air cyclonic circulations(UAC), off-shore trough(OST)/OST with embedded cyclonic circulations, east-west shear zone are considered in the study. Rainfall(AAP) caused by these systems considered are 11-25mm, 26-50mm, 51-100mm and > 100mm. Number of days for which these systems caused rainfall under each range was computed. The rainfall range with highest frequency for the particular system is taken as Synoptic Analogue Model. OST/OST with embedded cyclonic circulation has contributed significantly to rainfall in all the sub-basins. Depression/Deep Depression over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, South Interior Karnataka or North Interior Karnataka provides > 50mm rainfall in Harangi basin. Depression/Deep Depression over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, South Interior Karnataka or North Interior Karnataka provides > 50mm rainfall in Harangi basin. Low/Well Marked Low over Telangana provides > 50mm rainfall in Hemavathy basin. Upper Air Cyclonic circulation(UAC) over Rayalaseema provides > 50mm rainfall in Kabini basin. UAC over Rayalaseema, South East Bay of Bengal or West Central Bay of Bengal off Coastal Andhra Pradesh leads to >100 mm rain in Harangi. UAC over Coastal Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka or OST from Konkan Goa/Maharashtra to Karnataka leads to >100 mm rain in Upper Vaigai. Key words- Aerial Average Precipitation, QPF, Cauvery river basin, Synoptic Analogue Model

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开发用于印度考弗里盆地定量降水预报的综合模拟模型

收集了 2012 年至 2020 年西南季风季节考弗里河流域各子流域的日平均降水量（AAP）数据，以及造成各子流域降雨的同步系统。研究考虑了五种天气系统，即低气压/深低气压、低气压/明显低气压（WML）区、高层气旋环流（UAC）、近海低槽（OST）/内含气旋环流的低槽以及东西向剪切带。这些系统造成的降雨量（AAP）分别为 11-25mm、26-50mm、51-100mm 和大于 100mm。计算了这些系统在每个范围内造成降雨的天数。特定系统频率最高的降雨范围被视为同步模拟模式。内含气旋环流的 OST/OST 对所有子流域的降雨量都有显著影响。拉亚拉塞马、泰米尔纳德邦和本底切里、卡纳塔克邦内南部或卡纳塔克邦内北部上空的低气压/深低气压为哈兰吉盆地提供了大于 50 毫米的降雨量。拉亚拉塞马、泰米尔纳德邦和本迪榭里、南卡纳塔克邦内陆或北卡纳塔克邦内陆上空的低气压/深低气压为哈兰吉盆地提供了 > 50 毫米降雨量。Telangana 上空的低气压/明显低气压在 Hemavathy 盆地提供 > 50 毫米降雨量。拉亚拉塞马邦上空的高空气旋环流（UAC）为卡比尼盆地提供了大于 50 毫米的降雨量。拉亚拉塞马、孟加拉湾东南部或安得拉邦沿海孟加拉湾中西部上空的上气旋环流导致哈兰吉降雨量大于 100 毫米。卡纳塔克邦沿海和卡纳塔克邦北部内陆上空的 UAC 或从孔坎果阿/马哈拉施特拉邦到卡纳塔克邦的 OST 导致上瓦伊盖降雨量大于 100 毫米。关键词--空中平均降水量、QPF、考弗里河流域、同步模拟模型

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来源期刊

MAUSAM 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

1298

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.