Assessment of the annual trend of chemical aerogenic risk to health and mortality of the population at an industrial center

Abstract

Introduction. Ambient air pollution determines high levels of risk to public health, causing excess mortality. The purpose of the study is to analyze the dependence of the seasonal dynamics of pollutants and mortality from major non-infectious diseases in the population of the industrial center of Eastern Siberia. Materials and methods. Air pollution in Bratsk was assessed based on data from monitoring systems for 2017–2022, taking into account one-time, average monthly and annual concentrations. Hazard indices and mortality rates (MR) from major causes were calculated. The annual trend in indicators are assessed using seasonality indices (SI). Results. Features of the seasonal dynamics of pollutants were revealed: maximum fluctuations in SI are characteristic of benzo(a)pyrene (22% in the warm season, 214% in the cold season), formaldehyde (219 and 65%, respectively). The SI for mortality had significant fluctuations throughout the year and varied across age groups and disease classes. Changes in seasonality have been noted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Average monthly MR in the older group is associated with concentrations of PM2.5, formaldehyde, NO2. Limitations of the study are related to the limited data on monitoring pollutants, inevitable errors in conditional division into seasons, and the impossibility of accurately determining the cause of death during a pandemic. Conclusion. The use of average monthly data on MR values and pollutant concentrations confirms the dependence of population mortality on air pollution when studying this phenomenon in medium-sized cities with high levels of hazard indices.