A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR TUBERCULOSIS INFECTION TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN THE PRESENCE OF TESTING AND THERAPY, ISOLATION AND TREATMENT

P. Okolo, Christiana Gideon Makama, Roseline Toyin Abah
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Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model for Tuberculosis infection transmission dynamics is developed by incorporating testing and therapy of latent individuals, the isolation of infectious individuals and the treatment of the isolated individuals. The basic reproduction number was computed using the next generation matrix method. Analysis of the model at the disease-free equilibrium state and the endemic equilibrium states shows that it is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is less than unity at the disease -free equilibrium state and locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. The result from the sensitivity index of  show that the infection transmission parameter and other control parameters such as early detection and therapy, the isolation of infected individuals and treatment are crucial parameters to tuberculosis management.  It is shown from numerical simulations that the early detection and therapy, isolation and treatment of infected individuals will reduce the infection transmission. Further numerical results show that the combination of early detection and therapy, isolation and treatment of infectious individuals will decrease the infection transmission and its eventual eradication from the human population.
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检测和治疗、隔离和治疗情况下结核病感染传播动态的数学模型
在本研究中,通过对潜伏个体的检测和治疗、感染个体的隔离以及对隔离个体的治疗,建立了结核病感染传播动态数学模型。基本繁殖数是用下一代矩阵法计算得出的。对该模型在无病平衡态和流行平衡态下的分析表明,在无病平衡态下,只要基本繁殖数小于 1,该模型在局部和全局上都是渐近稳定的;只要基本繁殖数大于 1,该模型在局部和全局上都是渐近稳定的。敏感性指数的结果表明,感染传播参数和其他控制参数,如早期检测和治疗、感染者隔离和治疗,是结核病管理的关键参数。 数值模拟结果表明,早期发现和治疗、隔离和治疗感染者将减少感染传播。进一步的数值结果表明,将早期发现和治疗、隔离和治疗感染者结合起来,将减少感染的传播,并最终将其从人群中根除。
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