A co-infection model for multi-strain dynamics of dengue virus with temporary cross-immunity

Abstract

Dengue virus (DENV) belongs to the Flaviviridae family and is an RNA virus that is primarily spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a new multi-strain dengue transmission model that accounts for temporary cross-immunity and co-infection. We developed an in-house MATLAB code and performed simulations for di(cid:27)erent epidemic scenarios. We conduct numerical simulations of the model for two di(cid:27)erent epidemic scenarios, one without temporary cross-immunity and one with temporary cross-immunity, to gain deeper insights into the complex dynamics of dengue transmission with multiple strains. Our results reveal that strain 3 has a higher basic reproduction number than the other two strains, indicating that it is more transmissible. We also observe a unique pattern in the infection curve for the human population due to the e(cid:27)ects of cross-immunity and co-infection with strains 1 and 2, which initially decreases but then increases again, reaching a peak approximately 180 days after the initial infections. Our (cid:28)ndings suggest that the proposed model can be useful in predicting the transmission dynamics of dengue with multiple strains.