SHORT-TERM FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY LOADS USING SEASONAL ARIMA PATTERNS OF GENERATION UNITS AT PT. PLN (PERSERO) TARAKAN CITY

Abstract

Electrical power requirements at load centers tend to change over time, so the State Electricity Company (PLN) as a provider of electrical energy must be able to predict electrical load requirements every day. The city of Tarakan as a reference center in the northern region of Indonesia is developing rapidly. Along with this growth, the need for electric power is of course also increasing, so we must be able to provide an economical and reliable electric power supply system. This research aims to predict the electricity load at PT. PLN (Persero) Tarakan City. The author will carry out short-term forecasting using time series data in the form of daily electrical power usage data using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The ARIMA method or often called the Box-Jenkins technique shows that this method is suitable for predicting a number of variables quickly, simply and cheaply because it only requires variable data to be predicted. Analysis based on the Box-Jenkins time series taking into account the influence of seasonal patterns. The prediction results show that the data contains seasonal elements with the best model being SARIMA  with a MAPE of 3 percent.