Climate Adaptation Planning: Developing a Methodology for Evaluating Future Climate Change Impacts on Museum Environments and Their Collections

Abstract

As organisations, museums are responsible for conserving, protecting, and displaying artwork and artefacts. Museum buildings must deliver an environment that will continue to provide this facility for both current and future generations. This research focused on presenting a museum with quantifiable and measurable data to help with climate adaptation planning. A methodology was developed using monitored data. Subhourly data for both indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity spanning the years 2012–2021 was used to produce a daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily average dataset. A sensitivity analysis determined which years to use to derive the indoor-outdoor relationships used in climate modelling. Future impacts were calculated using UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data (12 models on a 2.2 km scale), as published by the Met Office Hadley Centre. The data contained within the 12 models was overlayed with the relationships derived to calculate the projected indoor temperature and humidity conditions within the museum. The results presented indicate that temperature and humidity conditions are projected to exceed design conditions more frequently in the coming decades. Consequently, adaptation plans must consider the potential impacts that include indoor environmental deterioration, leading to discomfort and health implications, increased energy costs, and system upgrade costs, as well as the potential for accelerated degradation of artwork and artefacts.