PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN JAVA–NUSA TENGGARA REGION BASED ON CMIP6 SCENARIO

IF 0.7 Q4 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Geographia Technica Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI:10.21163/gt_2024.191.04

Afifah Huda Safura, A. B. Sekaranom

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Abstract

: Between 2018 and 2022, the primary regions for rice production in Indonesia were Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara, collectively contributing to approximately 61% of the annual rice production. Unfortunately, these islands are also most vulnerable to crop failure due to drought-induced water shortages. Therefore, this study predicted the occurrence, duration, and severity of meteorological drought in Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara using rainfall data from six climate models within the CMIP6 framework under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The observed data of 20 BMKG rainfall stations in the study area was acquired to adjust the output of the CMIP6 models using the Linear Scaling (LS) method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a 3-month scale (SPI-3) was used to analyze meteorological drought characteristics, such as frequency, duration, and intensity. The results showed that drought frequency increased and persisted for longer durations, particularly in the Nusa Tenggara region. However, compared to the observation period, drought intensity was predicted to decline in both scenarios compared to the observed period. The SSP585 scenario also indicated a higher level of drought compared to SSP245.

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基于 cmip6 情景的爪哇-努沙登加拉地区未来气象干旱预测

:2018 年至 2022 年期间，印度尼西亚水稻生产的主要地区是爪哇岛、巴厘岛和努沙登加拉岛，合计约占水稻年产量的 61%。不幸的是，这些岛屿也最容易因干旱导致的缺水而歉收。因此，本研究利用 CMIP6 框架内的六个气候模型在 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下的降雨数据，预测了爪哇、巴厘和努沙登加拉气象干旱的发生、持续时间和严重程度。通过获取研究地区 20 个 BMKG 雨量站的观测数据，利用线性缩放（LS）方法调整 CMIP6 模型的输出结果。采用 3 个月尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI-3）来分析干旱的气象特征，如频率、持续时间和强度。结果显示，干旱频率增加，持续时间延长，尤其是在努沙登加拉地区。然而，与观测期相比，两种情景预测的干旱强度都将下降。与 SSP245 相比，SSP585 情景也表明干旱程度较高。

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来源期刊

Geographia Technica GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Geographia Technica is a journal devoted to the publication of all papers on all aspects of the use of technical and quantitative methods in geographical research. It aims at presenting its readers with the latest developments in G.I.S technology, mathematical methods applicable to any field of geography, territorial micro-scalar and laboratory experiments, and the latest developments induced by the measurement techniques to the geographical research. Geographia Technica is dedicated to all those who understand that nowadays every field of geography can only be described by specific numerical values, variables both oftime and space which require the sort of numerical analysis only possible with the aid of technical and quantitative methods offered by powerful computers and dedicated software. Our understanding of Geographia Technica expands the concept of technical methods applied to geography to its broadest sense and for that, papers of different interests such as: G.l.S, Spatial Analysis, Remote Sensing, Cartography or Geostatistics as well as papers which, by promoting the above mentioned directions bring a technical approach in the fields of hydrology, climatology, geomorphology, human geography territorial planning are more than welcomed provided they are of sufficient wide interest and relevance.