Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045

Abstract

Huanglongbing (HLB) is a citrus disease known for causing significant production losses, and its potential introduction into Peru looms on the horizon. The aim of this study was to assess the potential economic losses within the Central Jungle's orange production chain, specifically in the Region Junín. This assessment involved simulating the spread of HLB under prospective scenarios spanning from 2026 to 2045, aiming to estimate the cost-benefit of preventing these losses through the implementation of a national phytosanitary program (PNF). The methodology employed in this study comprised administering questionnaires to local growers and estimating economic losses across three scenarios. The first scenario assumed a baseline production trend without HLB presence, while the second scenario considered an epidemiological situation with HLB but without the implementation of a PNF. The third scenario factored in HLB with varying degrees of adoption among PNF-affiliated growers. The findings highlight several risk factors contributing to the potential spread of HLB in Junín. The epidemiological model reveals that HLB can swiftly render young trees unproductive. Cumulatively, economic losses from 2026 to 2045 could reach a staggering US$ 371,146 thousand if no intervention takes place. However, this figure could be significantly reduced to US$ 44,890 thousand if 100% of growers embrace the PNF. Such public policy measures would not only prevent production losses but also generate substantial social benefits. These scenarios underscore the stark negative impacts HLB could inflict on the local orange production chain. The implementation of the PNF proves to be a critical intervention, preventing production losses, preserving jobs, and safeguarding related economic activities. Without timely public intervention, the economic losses at stake could render the agribusiness sector unsustainable.