When growth is not enough: Do government transfers moderate the effect of economic growth on absolute and relative child poverty?

IF 1.5 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Global Social Policy Pub Date : 2023-11-18 DOI:10.1177/14680181231205376
Sebastian Sirén
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Abstract

Economic growth is commonly seen as the main driver of poverty reduction in a global perspective, but its impact varies substantially across cases. Meanwhile, the literature has been relatively silent regarding the role of social policy in explaining this variation. In light of an emerging attention to redistribution and social protection in promoting inclusive growth, this article analyses how government cash transfer systems moderate the effect of economic growth on both relative and absolute child poverty across low- and middle-income countries. The empirical analyses compare trends within 16 countries, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), by means of descriptive analyses and multivariate regression techniques. Findings show that both economic growth and the expansion of government transfer schemes were associated with falling absolute child poverty rates. While the association between growth and relative child poverty was on average more muted, the analyses found growth to be related to reductions in relative child poverty when combined with sufficiently extensive government transfers, while the opposite effect was found in the face of inadequate levels of transfers. The study provides a framework for studying interrelated effects of national institutions and economic processes, with the findings highlighting the fruitfulness of including indicators on social protection policies when inquiring about enabling conditions for inclusive growth in a development context.
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当增长不够时:政府转移支付是否能缓和经济增长对儿童绝对贫困和相对贫困的影响?
从全球角度看,经济增长通常被视为减贫的主要驱动力,但其影响在不同情况下却大相径庭。与此同时,关于社会政策在解释这种差异方面所起作用的文献相对较少。鉴于再分配和社会保护在促进包容性增长方面日益受到关注,本文分析了政府现金转移制度如何缓和经济增长对中低收入国家儿童相对贫困和绝对贫困的影响。实证分析利用卢森堡收入研究(LIS)的数据,通过描述性分析和多元回归技术,比较了 16 个国家的趋势。研究结果表明,经济增长和政府转移计划的扩大都与儿童绝对贫困率的下降有关。虽然平均而言,经济增长与相对儿童贫困之间的关系较为平淡,但分析发现,当经济增长与足够广泛的政府转移支付相结合时,经济增长与相对儿童贫困的减少有关,而当转移支付水平不足时,则会产生相反的效果。这项研究为研究国家机构和经济进程相互关联的影响提供了一个框架,研究结果突出表明,在探究发展背景下包容性增长的有利条件时,纳入有关社会保护政策的指标是富有成效的。
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来源期刊
Global Social Policy
Global Social Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
6.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Global Social Policy is a fully peer-reviewed journal that advances the understanding of the impact of globalisation processes upon social policy and social development on the one hand, and the impact of social policy upon globalisation processes on the other hand. The journal analyses the contributions of a range of national and international actors, both governmental and non-governmental, to global social policy and social development discourse and practice. Global Social Policy publishes scholarly policy-oriented articles and reports that focus on aspects of social policy and social and human development as broadly defined in the context of globalisation be it in contemporary or historical contexts.
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