BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION WITH THE ALTMAN Z-SCORE, SPRINGATE, ZMIJEWSKI, AND GROVER MODELS

Muhammad Jamil Reza, Gagaring Pagalung, Ratna Ayu Damayanti
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Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to predict bankruptcy towards food and beverage subsector and finding the most accurate analysis model among the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Design/methodology/approach – This analysis uses quantitative descriptive method using Ms. Excel, then performed Kruskal Wallis and accuracy test using IBM-SPSS Findings – The results by three-year average calculation using Altman Z-Score model shows that 2 out of 21 companies have the potential to go bankrupt, Springate model has 9 out of 21 companies, Zmijewski model has 3 out of 21 companies, and based on Grover model there are 2 out of 21 companies. The results of the hypothesis test showed that there were differences between the models and the Zmijewski model is the most accurate for food and beverage subsector companies. Originality – This study uses the most accurate analysis model among the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover by using 2017-2019 financial report data published on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Keywords: Bankruptcy, Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover Paper Type Research Result
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利用阿尔特曼 Z-分数、斯普林盖特、兹米耶夫斯基和格罗弗模型进行破产预测
目的 - 本研究旨在预测食品饮料子行业的破产情况,并在 Altman Z-Score、Springate、Zmijewski 和 Grover 中找出最准确的分析模型 设计/方法/途径 - 本分析采用 Excel 定量描述法,然后使用 IBM-SPSS 进行 Kruskal Wallis 和准确性测试。Excel 进行定量描述,然后使用 IBM-SPSS 进行 Kruskal Wallis 和准确性测试 结果 - 使用 Altman Z-Score 模型进行三年平均计算的结果显示,21 家公司中有 2 家有可能破产,Springate 模型有 9 家有可能破产,Zmijewski 模型有 3 家有可能破产,Grover 模型有 2 家有可能破产。假设检验结果表明,各模型之间存在差异,Zmijewski 模型对食品饮料子行业公司的预测最为准确。 独创性 - 本研究通过使用印度尼西亚证券交易所(IDX)公布的 2017-2019 年财务报告数据,在 Altman Z-Score、Springate、Zmijewski 和 Grover 中使用了最准确的分析模型 关键词破产、Altman Z-Score、Springate、Zmijewski、Grover 论文类型 研究成果
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