Using the Arima Method with Minitab Applications for Forecasting Work Order Projects of Casting Construction (Case Study: PT. Bumi Sarana Beton)

Abstract

The ARIMA method is a non-stationary homogeneous time series model that uses the procedure for applying the Autoregressive model or scheme and the Moving Average in preparing its forecasts. The purpose of this study was to determine the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and minitab application at PT. Bumi Sarana Beton in planning the estimated number of work orders. It can be concluded that for K-225 the best model is the ARIMA model (2,0,0) because it has the lowest MSE value and for K-400 the best model to use is the ARIMA model (2,0,2 ) because it has the smallest value. From the results of the research that has been done, it can be concluded that the production of K-225 in 2022 is 3573.50 m3, while using the ARIMA method in 2023 the total production is 3920.61 m3 and in 2024 the total production is 3573.50 m3. to 3824.36 m3. Production of K-400 in 2022 was 2015.00 m3, while using the ARIMA method in 2023 a total production of 1857.07 m3 was obtained and in 2024 a total production of 2045.89 m3 was obtained.