Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sunflower with Aquacrop Model

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the most significant risk factors in agricultural production. Plant productivity declines caused by climate change pose a serious threat to food supply and security. Crop simulation models have been widely used in recent years for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In Konya, there have been limited studies on the potential effects of climate change on sunflower production. Sunflower, the main crop of the most imported agricultural product group, in which the production amount is currently insufficient to cover domestic consumption demand, is strategically important for the Turkish economy. The goal of this study was to examine the effects of climate change on sunflower yield in Türkiye by using the Aquacrop model. The data of the field experiment carried out on the Ekllor sunflower cultivar for two years in Konya conditions were used as material. The daily projection dataset of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, GFDL-ESM2M) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used to analyze climate change impacts. The 1971-2000 period was considered as the reference period and the 2022-2098 period was selected as the future period. The results confirmed that the Aquacrop model was able to satisfactorily simulate yield with NRMSE 2.10 % for the rainfed condition and 10.55 % for the irrigated condition, a d-index of 0.97, and a modeling efficiency of 0.91. Aqaucrop climate change impacts simulation which was based on 3 global climate models covering with 2022 -2098 period simulations projected that sunflower yield would be decreased in a range of 21% to 44% for RCP4.5 and 18% to 50% for RCP8.5 scenarios under rainfed conditions. In contrast, the yield would be increased in a range of 11% to 23% for RCP4.5 and 10% to 33% for RCP8.5 scenarios under irrigated conditions. The findings point to the use of appropriate water management measures for future sunflower production as a means of adapting to climate change.