Market risk exposure determinants during the COVID-19 outbreak: between competitiveness and inequality

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this research is to identify the economic, demographic, sanitary and even cultural factors which explain the variability in the cross-section of returns in different markets globally during the first weeks after the outbreak of COVID-19.

Design/methodology/approach

Building on the event study methodology and using seemingly unrelated equations, the authors created several indicators on the impact of the pandemic in 75 different markets. Then, and using cross-sectional regressions robust to heteroscedasticity and using an algorithm to select independent variables from more than 30 factors, the authors determine which factors were behind the different stock market reactions to the pandemic.

Findings

Higher currency depreciation, inflation, interest rate or government deficit led to higher returns, while higher life expectancy, ageing population, GDP per capita or health spending led to the opposite effect. However, the positive effect of competitiveness and the negative effect of income inequality stand out for their statistical and economic significance.

Originality/value

This research provides a global view of investors' reaction to an extreme and unique event. Using a sample of 75 capital markets and testing the relevance of more than 30 variables from all categories, it is, to the authors' knowledge, the largest and most ambitious study of its kind.