The performance of Islamic and conventional microfinance loans in Afghanistan: The Taliban and beyond

IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Emerging Markets Review Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI:10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101104
Mustafa Disli, Shakir Jalaly
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Abstract

The Afghanistan microfinance industry has witnessed laurels in recent decades, making it crucial to closely monitor its development and sustainability. This study aims to assess the performance of Islamic and conventional microfinance loans in two aspects: first, by examining the occurrence of loan defaults, and second, by distinguishing between loan performance in areas controlled by the Taliban and those outside their control. To accomplish this, we analyze a unique dataset comprising over 9500 borrowers linked to an Afghan microfinance institution during the period spanning from January 2017 to February 2020. Our findings reveal that regions under Taliban control experienced fewer instances of loan defaults compared to areas not under their influence. Additionally, our analysis indicates that borrowers of Islamic loans in Afghanistan default more frequently than borrowers of conventional loans, particularly in Taliban-controlled areas. These observations remain largely consistent when we explore the factors influencing the number of days overdue on loan repayments. Furthermore, our conclusions find further support from both of the microfinance institution's Islamic loan products: business Murabaha loans, available to individuals of any gender, and women Murabaha loans, created as a group lending scheme exclusively for women. The results from this study offer valuable insights into how policy discussions in Afghanistan should be adjusted to facilitate a smooth transition for the microfinance industry.

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阿富汗伊斯兰和传统小额信贷的表现:塔利班及其后
近几十年来,阿富汗小额信贷业取得了一些成就,因此密切关注其发展和可持续性至关重要。本研究旨在从两个方面评估伊斯兰小额贷款和传统小额贷款的表现:首先,研究贷款违约的发生率;其次,区分塔利班控制地区和塔利班控制之外地区的贷款表现。为了实现这一目标,我们分析了一个独特的数据集,其中包括 2017 年 1 月至 2022 年 2 月期间与阿富汗一家小额信贷机构有关联的 9500 多名借款人。我们的研究结果表明,与未受塔利班影响的地区相比,塔利班控制下的地区发生贷款违约的情况较少。此外,我们的分析表明,阿富汗伊斯兰贷款的借款人比传统贷款的借款人违约更频繁,尤其是在塔利班控制的地区。当我们探讨影响贷款逾期还款天数的因素时,这些观察结果在很大程度上保持一致。此外,我们的结论还得到了小额信贷机构两种伊斯兰贷款产品的进一步支持:商业穆拉巴哈贷款和妇女穆拉巴哈贷款,商业穆拉巴哈贷款面向任何性别的个人,而妇女穆拉巴哈贷款则是专为妇女设立的集体贷款计划。这项研究的结果为如何调整阿富汗的政策讨论以促进小额信贷行业的平稳过渡提供了宝贵的见解。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
4.20%
发文量
85
审稿时长
100 days
期刊介绍: The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.
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