Emerging Markets Review最新文献

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The role of investor participation on sovereign debt markets: Evidence from an emerging economy

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101284

José Antonio Ocampo , Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas , Germán Orbegozo-Rodríguez , Nicolás Fajardo-Baquero , Oscar Botero-Ramírez , Camilo Orozco-Vanegas

We examine the impact of sovereign debt holdings on bond yields and volatility across different maturities and investor types. Using a unique Colombian panel dataset encompassing all government shares and concentrations of public and private institutions from 2006 to 2018, our analysis reveals that a one-standard-deviation increase in non-residents' market share leads to a 0.5% reduction in bond yields and a 10% decrease in volatility relative to their mean values. For domestic banks and pension funds, a one-standard-deviation increase in market shares results in a 0.7% and 1.3% increase in bond yields, along with a 10% and 6% rise in yield volatility, respectively. Additionally, we observe unexpected negative effects of foreign investors' market concentration on bond yields and volatility. These effects are attributed to the mix of investors. Initially, all foreign investors were foreign banks, demonstrating a stable demand despite their limited number. Over time, they ceded participation to mutual funds, which, although more numerous, adopted speculative strategies associated with short-term return investments.

我们研究了主权债务持有量对不同期限和投资者类型的债券收益率和波动性的影响。我们的分析使用了一个独特的哥伦比亚面板数据集，涵盖了 2006 年至 2018 年所有政府份额以及公共和私人机构的集中度，结果显示，非居民市场份额每增加一个标准差，债券收益率就会下降 0.5%，波动率相对于其平均值下降 10%。就国内银行和养老基金而言，市场份额每增加一个标准差，债券收益率就会分别上升 0.7% 和 1.3%，收益率波动率也会分别上升 10% 和 6%。此外，我们还观察到外国投资者的市场集中度对债券收益率和波动率产生了意想不到的负面影响。这些影响可归因于投资者的组合。起初，所有外国投资者都是外国银行，尽管数量有限，但需求稳定。随着时间的推移，它们将参与权让给了共同基金，后者虽然数量更多，但采取的是与短期回报投资相关的投机策略。

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引用次数: 0

The employment effects of anticorruption: Evidence from China

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101290

Xiangbing Xu , Nanyan Dong , Chengzhang Wu , Sicheng Luo

This study examines whether China's anticorruption efforts affect firm employment. We find that Chinese provinces with higher pre-existing levels of corruption experience significant increases in the employment scale of listed firms post-campaign. Two channels through which anticorruption affects employment are identified: the mitigation of expropriation risk and the alleviation of financing pressure. The employment effects are more pronounced in firms with higher labor costs, lower management fees, and those located in regions with weaker marketization. Moreover, the campaign can mitigate underhiring and its effects on employment will not come at the expense of compensation or firm profitability.

引用次数: 0

Risk-sharing networks, consumption, and asset allocation: Micro-evidence from China

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101289

Ying Fan , Yidi Wang , Zan Yang

Kinship networks play an important role in sharing risk under insufficient social security. We examine the heterogeneous risk-sharing networks and their impacts on household finance. Based on a staggered DID design, we find that households under negative shocks obtain a larger extent of social capital from extended family members with blood ties and geo-proximities, similar income positions, and lower uncertainty exposures. The vehicles of risk-sharing differ across networks, and direct monetary transfers over quasi-credits are facilitated by altruism and social norms. However, over-reliance on risk-sharing networks reduces willingness to engage in life-cycle financial planning and dampens long-term financial performance.

引用次数: 0

Targeted monetary policy and household business credit access: Based on the credit asset pledge relending policy

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101288

Mingxin Zhang , Min Lin , Yanmei Sun , Weixing Wu

This paper reveals the impact of targeted monetary policy on household business credit access, emphasizing its implications on entities not explicitly targeted by the policy. The primary goal of the Credit Asset Pledge Relending Policy lies in motivating financial institutions to extend credit to the agricultural sector and small enterprises. However, stringent relending regulations often render loans extended to entities with insufficient financial information ineligible as collateral for further relending. By utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey, we demonstrate that the Credit Asset Pledge Relending Policy, which is supposed to inject additional liquidity into the market, paradoxically results in a notable reduction in household commercial loans. Based on our heterogeneity analysis, regions with limited capital liquidity and heightened bank competition witness more significant effects on household business loans. Finally, households with an increased aversion to risk or lower financial literacy encounter greater financing constraints in accessing business credit.

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic financial connectedness among the US, China, and countries of the Belt and Road Initiative

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101286

Walter Bazán-Palomino, Diego Winkelried

How have the financial linkages among the US, China, and emerging markets changed since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? Using intraday data from 2013 to 2023, we study the financial connectedness of stock markets in the US, China, and the regions with BRI countries. Our time-varying measures of connectedness indicate that the BRI has not significantly changed the financial relationships between China and BRI countries nor has it diminished the financial connections between these countries and the US. Our net directional connectedness analysis finds that the Middle East and Africa region, and the Central Asia and Europe region are the most susceptible to shocks from the US and China. Policymakers and investors should be concerned about periods and regions susceptible to American and Chinese financial shocks, as these can increase network connectivity, thereby heightening financial instability and reducing the benefits of portfolio diversification.

引用次数: 0

Borrowing constraints, financial development and the aggregate savings: Theory and evidence

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101282

Pengfei Wang , Lifang Xu , Zhiwei Xu

In most countries, both firms and households face borrowing constraints. Based on this fact, the paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints on both households and firms. The model implies that the relationship between financial development and the saving rate is non-monotonic. The paper also provides some empirical evidence that supports this prediction. This non-monotonic relationship has several important implications.

引用次数: 0

Spillover effects of short selling on corporate bond financing costs: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101285

Xianzhe Jin , Haitao Si , Dandan Zhu , Yuyan Li

This study examines the impact of short selling on corporate bond financing costs. Using a quasi-natural experiment and panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2022, we find that short selling significantly reduces corporate bond financing costs, primarily by mitigating information asymmetry. Further analysis reveals that this effect is particularly pronounced in regions with well-developed financial markets and strong legal environments. Our findings remain robust after controlling for potential confounders and addressing endogeneity through propensity score matched difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) analysis. This study provides a novel perspective on short selling in China, highlighting its cross-market spillover effects between equity and bond markets.

引用次数: 0

Digital finance and stock price crash: Evidence from China

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101287

Ping Zhang , Yiru Wang

In this paper, we study the impact of digital finance on stock price crash risk based on 293 Chinese city-level digital finance indexes and all A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2022. We find that digital finance can decrease stock price crash risk by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) dynamic panel regression model. The promotion of digital transformation, the increase of information transparency, and the decrease of financial risks are three plausible channels that allow digital finance to reduce stock price crash risk. These mechanisms shed light on the pathways through which digital finance can enhance market stability. Furthermore, our investigation reveals that the reducing effect is more pronounced in higher competitive industries and new technology firms. The conclusion enriches and expands the research on digital finance and corporate stock price crash risk, providing a theoretical basis for improving and stabilizing the Chinese capital market and promoting the development strategy of digital finance.

引用次数: 0

Demographic shifts and the strategic use of flexible off-budget debt tools

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101283

Tianyuan Jiang , Manling Zhang , Jing Chen

Demographic shifts pose significant fiscal challenges for local governments worldwide. This paper examines how municipal corporate bonds (MCBs), a flexible and off-budget financing solution, help address financing gaps caused by demographic shifts. Using location-based service data and an IV approach, we identify a causal effect of net population change on MCB issuance. We find that growing cities increase MCB issuance in response to population influx, but this pattern is absent in shrinking cities. In addition, the relationship weakens under stricter central government debt policies. Our findings reveal how demographic shifts and regulatory environments jointly shape municipal financing behaviors.

引用次数: 0

Bank market power and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from loan-level data 银行市场力量与货币政策传导：来自贷款层面数据的证据

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review

Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101280

Nadezhda Ivanova , Svetlana Popova , Konstantin Styrin

This paper asks the following questions. How does bank' market power reshape the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending? How does it affect loan characteristics such as the loan volume and maturity, lending interest rates, risk, and the extensive margin of lending? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and the strength of monetary transmission? We find that, for credit institutions with greater market power, monetary policy has a muted effect on fixed and floating lending interest rates, loan maturities and the extensive margin of lending at floating rates, whereas its influence on the loan volume and the extensive margin for fixed-rate loans, and risk-taking is neutral. Our current findings implying no trade-off between the strength of monetary policy transmission and financial stability are indecisive and subject to further investigation.

引用次数: 0

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