Resource discoveries and the political survival of dictators

Abstract

We study the effect of resource discoveries on dictator failure. We extend existing conflict literature by developing a dynamic stochastic model where timing of attack and probability of success are endogenous. Incumbent and opposition invest in military arsenals which determine success probability, while opposition also chooses when to stage a coup. A resource discovery delays the attack and reduces the probability of overthrow. We test these hypotheses using duration models and timing of giant oil and gas discoveries, finding that large discoveries more than double remaining time until failure and reduce hazard faced by an autocrat by 30%–50%.