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Hot and cold choices: The role of extreme temperatures in shaping industrial geographical distribution 冷热选择:极端温度对工业地理分布的影响
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103285
Ding Ma , Min Wang , Shuo Li , Xiumei Yu
This paper examines how extreme temperatures shape firm entry decisions and industrial geography. Leveraging comprehensive firm registration data from China, we identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and firm entry, while firm exit remains largely unresponsive. Mechanism analyses reveal that temperature shocks disproportionately reduce entry in labor-intensive industries within tradable sectors. This effect operates through temperature-induced labor productivity losses, whereas entry in non-tradable sectors, such as services, declines indirectly through reduced local demand from downstream industrial clients. Firms also adapt by shifting equity investments toward new firm establishments in regions with milder climates. Climate projections indicate that continued warming will substantially reshape industrial geography. These findings highlight firm location choice as a critical channel of climate adaptation and underscore the role of temperature risk in driving long-term spatial economic change.
本文考察了极端温度如何影响企业进入决策和产业地理。利用来自中国的综合企业注册数据,我们确定了温度与企业进入之间的倒u型关系,而企业退出在很大程度上仍然没有反应。机制分析表明,温度冲击不成比例地减少了贸易部门内劳动密集型产业的进入。这种影响通过温度导致的劳动生产率损失来实现,而服务业等非贸易部门的进入则通过下游工业客户的本地需求减少而间接减少。公司也通过将股权投资转向气候温和地区的新公司来适应。气候预测表明,持续变暖将极大地重塑工业地理。这些发现强调了企业区位选择是气候适应的关键渠道,并强调了温度风险在推动长期空间经济变化中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
High temperature and learning outcomes: Evidence from Ethiopia 高温与学习成果:来自埃塞俄比亚的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103278
Bhavya Srivastava , Kibrom Tafere , A. Patrick Behrer
What is the impact of high temperatures on human capital accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa? Rising temperatures, due to climate change, and the role of human capital in driving development make answering this question imperative to understand the long-term impacts of climate change in the world’s most climate vulnerable region. We use data from 2003–2019 for 2.47 million test takers of a national high-stakes high-school leaving exam in Ethiopia to study the impacts of temperature on learning outcomes. We find that high temperatures during the school year leading up to the exam reduce test scores, controlling for temperatures during the exam. Female students appear slightly less affected by heat compared to their male counterparts. We do not find evidence to reject the hypothesis that these effects are driven primarily by within-classroom temperatures rather than indirect effects on agriculture.
高温对撒哈拉以南非洲地区人力资本积累的影响是什么?气候变化导致的气温上升,以及人力资本在推动发展方面的作用,使得回答这个问题对于了解气候变化对世界上最易受气候影响地区的长期影响至关重要。我们使用了2003-2019年埃塞俄比亚247万名参加国家高风险高中毕业考试的考生的数据,研究温度对学习成果的影响。我们发现,考试前一学年的高温会降低考试成绩,从而控制考试期间的温度。与男生相比,女生受高温的影响略小。我们没有找到证据来反驳这种假设,即这些影响主要是由教室内的温度驱动的,而不是对农业的间接影响。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of land use on water quality: Evidence from California wells 土地利用对水质的影响:来自加州水井的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103284
Jeffrey Hadachek , Pierre Mérel , Scott Somerville
Nitrate pollution threatens human health and ecosystems in many regions of the world. Although scientists agree that nitrogen compounds from human activity, notably agriculture, enter groundwater systems, empirical estimates of the impacts of land use on nitrate concentrations in well water are still lacking. We provide evidence on such impacts by combining nitrate measurements from 6016 groundwater wells with remotely sensed California land use data from 2007–2023. We categorize agricultural land uses according to crops’ propensities to leach nitrogen and further consider urban development, in addition to undeveloped land—the default land use. Results show that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of land used to grow high-nitrogen crops within 500 m of a well is associated with an 11.6% increase in nitrate concentrations a decade later, while the same increase in urban developments contributes about a 10% increase. When conditioning on initial nitrate measurements, the impact of nearby land use attenuates while initial concentrations explain a large share of future variation in concentrations, demonstrating the persistent nature of nitrates in groundwater. A calculation based on our regression estimates implies that replacing high-nitrogen with low-nitrogen crops around sample wells would achieve a 4.6% reduction in nitrate concentrations, saving municipal water systems $25 million annually. We evaluate the opportunity cost of such crop substitution to be large; however, targeting only the crops with the highest propensity to leach nitrates easily passes a cost-benefit test.
硝酸盐污染在世界许多地区威胁着人类健康和生态系统。尽管科学家们一致认为,人类活动,特别是农业活动产生的氮化合物会进入地下水系统,但关于土地利用对井水中硝酸盐浓度影响的经验估计仍然缺乏。我们将6016口地下水井的硝酸盐测量数据与2007-2023年加州土地利用的遥感数据相结合,提供了此类影响的证据。我们根据作物对氮的淋滤倾向对农业用地进行了分类,并进一步考虑了城市发展,以及未开发土地(默认的土地利用)。结果表明,在距井500米范围内,用于种植高氮作物的土地比例每增加10个百分点,10年后硝酸盐浓度就会增加11.6%,而同样的城市发展增加约10%。当以初始硝酸盐测量为条件时,附近土地利用的影响减弱,而初始浓度解释了未来浓度变化的很大一部分,表明地下水中硝酸盐的持久性。根据我们的回归估计,用低氮作物代替高氮作物在样本井周围,硝酸盐浓度将降低4.6%,每年为市政供水系统节省2500万美元。我们认为这种作物替代的机会成本很大;然而,只针对具有最高硝酸盐浸出倾向的作物很容易通过成本效益测试。
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引用次数: 0
Green patents in an oligopolistic market with green consumers 绿色消费者的寡头垄断市场中的绿色专利
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103281
Corinne Langinier , Amrita RayChaudhuri
We analyze the impact of patent policies and emission taxes on green innovation. We allow for strategic interactions of firms in a duopolistic market in the presence of green-conscious consumers. We identify a paradoxical effect of increasing emission taxes beyond a certain threshold, which results in an increase in emissions. Decreasing patenting costs mitigates this paradox while the impact of tightening patentability requirements is more complex. Moreover, we show that the greater the proportion of green-conscious consumers, the less likely firms are totcilate license a green patent, which results in higher emissions levels at low tax levels. For an intermediate range of taxes, licensing does occur in equilibrium which lowers emissions. Finally, we find that while tax increases lead to a switch from overinvestment to underinvestment in the absence of green-conscious consumers, when the proportion of green-conscious consumers is sufficiently large, there is underinvestment at all tax levels.
我们分析了专利政策和排放税对绿色创新的影响。我们允许企业在有绿色意识的消费者存在的双寡头市场中进行战略互动。我们发现增加排放税超过一定阈值会导致排放量增加的矛盾效应。降低专利成本缓解了这一矛盾,而收紧可专利性要求的影响则更为复杂。此外,我们表明,绿色意识的消费者比例越大,企业就越不可能授权绿色专利,这导致低税收水平下的更高排放水平。对于中间范围的税收,许可确实在平衡中发生,从而降低排放。最后,我们发现,虽然在没有绿色意识消费者的情况下,税收增加会导致从过度投资到投资不足的转变,但当绿色意识消费者的比例足够大时,所有税收水平都存在投资不足。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change and population growth: A reassessment 气候变化与人口增长:重新评估
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103282
Holger Strulik , Timo Trimborn
It is widely believed that population growth has a negative impact on global warming. Here, we set up an integrated assessment model (a simplified DICE model) and derive analytically a condition under which a higher world population causally leads to a lower long-run temperature increase under optimal carbon taxation. The condition is easily fulfilled for standard IAM parameters and is independent of the discount rate, the degree of utilitarianism in the objective function, the calibration of the emission and abatement technologies, and other economic parameters. We also show that at the steady state, a larger population implies higher social and individual welfare. We also investigate a refinement of the DICE approach that could mitigate or reverse the predicted negative effect of population growth on climate change.
人们普遍认为人口增长对全球变暖有负面影响。在此,我们建立了一个综合评估模型(简化的DICE模型),并分析得出了在最优碳税条件下,世界人口增加导致较低的长期温度升高的条件。该条件对于标准IAM参数来说很容易满足,并且与贴现率、目标函数中的功利主义程度、排放和减排技术的校准以及其他经济参数无关。我们还表明,在稳定状态下,更大的人口意味着更高的社会和个人福利。我们还研究了对DICE方法的改进,以减轻或扭转预测的人口增长对气候变化的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
European energy crisis: Did electricity prices shock real estate markets? 欧洲能源危机:电价冲击了房地产市场吗?
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103283
Becka Brolinson , William M. Doerner , Arne Johan Pollestad , Michael J. Seiler
This paper investigates how the 2021–2022 European energy crisis, a major macro-financial shock, affected the relative valuation of energy-efficient homes in Norway. Leveraging the country’s electricity market—characterized by five distinct regions with varying exposure to European power prices—we analyze how energy price shocks influence housing market dynamics with a triple difference-in-differences regression framework. We find that home prices fell significantly in regions affected by the shock, with average value losses ranging from 1.2% to 3.6%. Energy-efficient homes experienced smaller price declines, particularly in the single-family home segment, indicating a differential price response during the shock. Moreover, the negative price effects persist despite the introduction of electricity price subsidies. These findings highlight the complex relations among energy costs, real estate market valuations, and housing characteristic heterogeneity by offering generalizable insights into the resilience of housing markets to unanticipated shocks and the role of policy interventions in mitigating their effects.
本文研究了2021-2022年欧洲能源危机(主要的宏观金融冲击)如何影响挪威节能住宅的相对估值。利用该国的电力市场——其特点是五个不同的地区对欧洲电价的影响不同——我们使用三差中差回归框架分析能源价格冲击如何影响住房市场动态。我们发现,在受冲击影响的地区,房价大幅下跌,平均价值损失在1.2%至3.6%之间。节能住宅的价格跌幅较小,特别是在单户住宅市场,这表明在冲击期间价格反应不同。此外,尽管引入了电价补贴,但负面的价格效应仍然存在。这些发现突出了能源成本、房地产市场估值和住房特征异质性之间的复杂关系,为住房市场抵御意外冲击的能力以及政策干预在减轻其影响方面的作用提供了可概括的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Physical climate risk and the pricing of bank loans 自然气候风险与银行贷款定价
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103280
Karol Kempa
This paper analyses how physical climate risk affects the pricing of loans. Using a global dataset of almost 86,000 syndicated bank loans, we find that a higher climate vulnerability of a firm’s host country leads to higher costs of borrowing. The effects of physical climate risk on loan pricing are particularly large if loans have long maturities and if borrowing firms are in financial distress. In addition to loan pricing, banks also adjust other loan terms, such as loan size, collateral requirements, or fees, to manage their exposure to their borrowers’ physical climate risk. As climate risk may also directly affect loan pricing, e.g., via general updates of credit risk models due to observed changes in climate risk, we extend the analysis to firm-level credit risk ratings. The results show that physical climate risk negatively affects long-term credit risk ratings, while it does not play a role in short-term credit risk, and hence support the proposed channel that physical climate risk affects loan pricing via its effect on firms’ default probabilities.
本文分析了物理气候风险对贷款定价的影响。利用全球近86000笔银团银行贷款的数据集,我们发现,企业所在国的气候脆弱性越高,其借款成本就越高。如果贷款期限较长,且借款公司处于财务困境,则自然气候风险对贷款定价的影响尤其大。除了贷款定价,银行还调整其他贷款条款,如贷款规模、抵押品要求或费用,以管理其对借款人实际气候风险的敞口。由于气候风险也可能直接影响贷款定价,例如,由于观察到气候风险的变化,通过对信用风险模型的一般更新,我们将分析扩展到公司层面的信用风险评级。结果表明,物理气候风险对长期信用风险评级有负向影响,而对短期信用风险没有影响,因此支持了物理气候风险通过对企业违约概率的影响影响贷款定价的渠道。
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引用次数: 0
How air pollution makes firms less innovative: Human capital and adaptive strategies 空气污染如何降低企业创新能力:人力资本和适应性策略
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103279
Tiago Cavalcanti , Kamiar Mohaddes , Hongyu Nian , Haitao Yin
This paper studies the long-term effects of air pollution on firms’ human capital accumulation and the adaptive strategies they adopt in response. Leveraging a spatial regression discontinuity (RD) design based on China’s Huai River heating policy and utilizing a novel dataset with detailed firm-level human capital information, we show that air pollution significantly reduces the share of R&D staff with advanced degrees, particularly PhD and master’s degrees. To offset these challenges, firms in more polluted regions increasingly turn to external strategies, such as acquiring technology and collaborating with universities, as well as internal measures, including expanding welfare subsidies for R&D staff and investing in experimental instruments. However, despite these adaptive efforts, firms in polluted areas still generate fewer innovations than their counterparts in cleaner regions. Overall, our findings highlight the role of internal human capital in sustaining innovative capacity.
本文研究了空气污染对企业人力资本积累的长期影响及其相应的适应性策略。利用基于中国淮河供暖政策的空间回归不连续(RD)设计,并利用包含企业层面详细人力资本信息的新数据集,我们发现空气污染显著降低了具有高级学位(尤其是博士和硕士学位)的研发人员的比例。为了抵消这些挑战,污染较严重地区的企业越来越多地转向外部战略,如获取技术和与大学合作,以及内部措施,包括扩大对研发人员的福利补贴和投资实验仪器。然而,尽管有这些适应性的努力,污染地区的公司仍然比清洁地区的同行产生更少的创新。总体而言,我们的研究结果突出了内部人力资本在维持创新能力方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Using satellite-observed geospatial inundation data to identify the impacts of floods on firm-level performance: The case of China during 2000–2009 利用卫星观测的地理空间淹没数据识别洪水对企业绩效的影响:以2000-2009年中国为例
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103276
Pao-Li Chang , Fan Zheng
This paper compiles high-resolution geospatial inundation areas of China for the period 2000–2009 based on satellite imagery repositories filtered by the Global Flood Database (GFD). In parallel, we geocode a comprehensive firm-level dataset of China and combine these two sets of geospatial data to identify the set of inundated firms in each year of flood events, as well as the distances of all non-inundated firms from the inundated areas. Given the high-resolution inundation data, we adopt a generalized dynamic-panel specification to estimate dynamic and spatial spillover effects of floods on firm-level production activities (including outputs, capital and labor inputs, and productivities). We find negative and persistent effects of floods on firm-level performance measures, and negative but short-run spillover effects on non-inundated firms in nearby neighborhoods. In contrast, non-inundated firms located 6–12 km away from the inundated area expanded their production in the long run, suggesting reallocation of production activities/facilities away from the inundation area toward the outer rings of the neighborhood. We conduct various robustness checks and extended analyses, identify moderating/aggravating factors of inundation impacts, assess the aggregate effects at the economy-wide, province, and sector levels, and quantify the propagation of flood exposures via the input–output linkages.
本文基于全球洪水数据库(GFD)过滤的卫星影像库,编制了2000-2009年中国高分辨率的地理空间淹没区。与此同时,我们对中国企业层面的综合数据集进行了地理编码,并将这两组地理空间数据结合起来,以确定每年洪水事件中被淹没的企业,以及所有未被淹没的企业与被淹没地区的距离。考虑到高分辨率的洪水数据,我们采用广义动态面板规范来估计洪水对企业层面生产活动(包括产出、资本和劳动力投入以及生产率)的动态和空间溢出效应。我们发现,洪水对企业绩效指标的负面和持续影响,以及对附近社区未被洪水淹没的企业的负面但短期的溢出效应。相比之下,距离淹没区6-12公里的未被淹没的公司从长远来看扩大了生产,这表明生产活动/设施从淹没区重新分配到附近的外环。我们进行了各种稳健性检查和扩展分析,确定了洪水影响的缓和/加剧因素,评估了整个经济、省份和行业层面的总体影响,并通过投入产出联系量化了洪水风险的传播。
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引用次数: 0
Split incentives and energy efficiency investment: Evidence from the housing market 分割激励和能源效率投资:来自房地产市场的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103277
Erdal Aydin , Piet Eichholtz , Rogier Holtermans , Santiago Bohórquez Correa
Investments in energy efficiency in the built environment play a crucial role in global efforts to combat climate change. However, a significant obstacle to these investments arises from the differing incentives between landlords and tenants in the housing market. Landlords, who are typically not responsible for utility costs, may choose to invest less in energy efficiency improvements if these investments are not adequately reflected in rents. Our study provides empirical evidence of this market distortion, drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset from the Dutch housing market covering 3.8 million homes. We implement a quasi-experimental event study design that exploits transitions from rental to owner-occupied status while holding both the dwelling and the household constant. This identification strategy enables us to isolate changes in energy use attributable to tenure status. Our findings indicate a gradual decline in natural gas consumption following the transition to home-ownership, with an average reduction of about 2% that increases to as much as 5% nine years after the transition. In electricity consumption, split incentives are less important, given that tenants control the use and stock of their appliances, and we find no effect of changes in tenure status. Together, these findings provide empirical support for the relevance of tenure-based incentives in shaping energy-related decisions and can inform the design of targeted policies aimed at improving the energy performance of the rental housing stock.
建筑环境能效投资在全球应对气候变化的努力中发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,这些投资的一个重大障碍来自房地产市场上房东和租客之间不同的激励机制。业主通常不承担公用事业成本,如果这些投资没有充分反映在租金上,他们可能会选择减少对能效改进的投资。我们的研究提供了这种市场扭曲的经验证据,借鉴了荷兰住房市场覆盖380万户家庭的综合面板数据集。我们实施了一个准实验事件研究设计,利用从租赁到自住状态的转变,同时保持住宅和家庭不变。这种识别策略使我们能够分离出归属于权属状态的能源使用变化。我们的研究结果表明,在向自有住房过渡后,天然气消费量逐渐下降,平均下降约2%,在过渡后9年增加到5%。在电力消费方面,考虑到租户控制其电器的使用和库存,分割激励不那么重要,我们发现租户地位的变化没有影响。总之,这些发现为基于任期的激励在形成能源相关决策中的相关性提供了实证支持,并可以为旨在改善租赁住房存量能源绩效的有针对性政策的设计提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
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