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Geography, income, and the incidence of a Massachusetts carbon tax 地理、收入和马萨诸塞州碳税的发生率
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103296
Susan Stratton Sayre
I use spatial microsimulation to estimate the geographic incidence of the consumer-facing portion of various revenue-neutral carbon tax designs in Massachusetts. I identify a substantial urban-rural disparity in impacts that is reduced, but not eliminated, by proposed revenue-targeting mechanisms. I further demonstrate that seemingly small variations in the definition of rural households can have substantial impacts on urban-rural equity and the distribution of gains and losses. Proposed policies are highly progressive in the aggregate with most low-income households receiving more in rebates than they pay in taxes, but notable numbers of low-income households are likely to experience significant losses. Methodologically, I improve upon related work, by considering the full distribution of possible effects that each household might experience and demonstrate the importance of this approach. Politically, I find that Democratic-held districts fare better under all policy variations. There are noticeable trade-offs between policies aimed at improving median outcomes in each district and those designed to minimize the number of households facing significant financial losses within each district.
我使用空间微观模拟来估计马萨诸塞州各种收入中性碳税设计中面向消费者部分的地理发生率。我发现,通过拟议的收入目标机制,在影响方面存在着巨大的城乡差异,这种差异可以减少,但不能消除。我进一步证明,农村家庭定义上看似微小的差异可能对城乡公平和收益与损失的分配产生重大影响。总的来说,拟议的政策是高度累进的,大多数低收入家庭获得的回扣比他们缴纳的税款要多,但相当多的低收入家庭可能会遭受重大损失。在方法上,我改进了相关的工作,通过考虑每个家庭可能经历的可能影响的完整分布,并证明了这种方法的重要性。在政治上,我发现民主党控制的地区在所有政策变化下都表现得更好。在旨在改善每个地区的中位数结果的政策与旨在尽量减少每个地区面临重大经济损失的家庭数量的政策之间存在明显的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
A helping hand for the regulator: The role of industry associations in firm water pollution abatement in China 监管者的援助之手:行业协会在中国企业水污染减排中的作用
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103306
Jinyong Zhan , Dingyan He , Mengjun Yang
Global industrialization and urbanization have intensified water pollution, posing significant challenges to environmental governance. Formal environmental regulations often face limitations, such as high monitoring costs and frequent circumvention by firms. Thus, it is crucial to explore the complementary role of informal environmental regulation. We use panel data from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (ASIF) and the Environmental Survey and Reporting (ESR) database for the period 1998–2013. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model and an instrumental variable approach to investigate the impact of industry associations on firms' water pollution abatement. The study finds that after the establishment of an industry association, a firm's chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions significantly decrease by 9.9%. This effect is more pronounced in regions with lower levels of digital economy development and stronger environmental regulations. Mechanism analysis suggests that industry associations reduce emissions by both lowering COD generation and increasing its removal rate, forming a three-pronged approach: source reduction, process optimization, and end-of-pipe treatment. This study offers a novel perspective and causal evidence for research on informal environmental regulation. It contributes to the theoretical framework of environmental governance and provides theoretical and methodological guidance for future research.
全球工业化和城市化加剧了水污染,对环境治理提出了重大挑战。正式的环境法规常常面临限制,例如高昂的监测成本和企业频繁的规避。因此,探讨非正式环境规制的补充作用至关重要。我们使用了1998-2013年期间来自工业企业年度调查(ASIF)和环境调查与报告(ESR)数据库的面板数据。本文采用交错差中差(DID)模型和工具变量方法来研究行业协会对企业水污染减排的影响。研究发现,成立行业协会后,企业的化学需氧量(COD)排放量显著下降9.9%。这种影响在数字经济发展水平较低、环境监管较强的地区更为明显。机理分析表明,行业协会通过降低COD的产生和提高COD的去除率来实现减排,形成源头减排、工艺优化和末端治理三管齐下的途径。本研究为非正式环境规制的研究提供了新的视角和因果证据。它有助于构建环境治理的理论框架,并为未来的研究提供理论和方法指导。
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引用次数: 0
The differential benefits of market-based water pollution control policy 基于市场的水污染控制政策的差异效益
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103301
Zach Raff , Andrew Meyer , Arthur R. Wardle
This paper examines the water quality benefits of Wisconsin’s phosphorus rule, which created the most stringent water quality standards for phosphorus in the US. We estimate the impact of this policy on phosphorus concentrations downstream of affected point sources and investigate the differential benefits realized from compliance with the rule via treatment technology upgrade versus compliance through offset trading. Leveraging an upstream-downstream research design, we find that the phosphorus rule reduces total phosphorus concentrations downstream of regulated point sources by 27%. We further find that technological upgrades yield larger reductions (31%) than offset trading (22%), but offsets represent the cost-effective option. Upgrading facilities pay roughly $34,000 per year in capital costs to produce the same water quality improvements as offset trades that cost $6000 per year.
本文考察了威斯康星州磷规则的水质效益,该规则创建了美国最严格的磷水质标准。我们估计了这一政策对受影响点源下游磷浓度的影响,并调查了通过处理技术升级和通过抵消交易来遵守规则所实现的不同效益。利用上下游研究设计,我们发现磷规则使受调节点源下游的总磷浓度降低了27%。我们进一步发现,技术升级产生的减排(31%)比抵消交易(22%)更大,但抵消代表了具有成本效益的选择。升级设施每年的资本成本约为34,000美元,以产生与抵消贸易相同的水质改善,每年成本为6,000美元。
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引用次数: 0
Lost and found: A natural field experiment on charitable donations, extinctions, and finance for conservation 失物招领:关于慈善捐赠、物种灭绝和保护资金的自然实地实验
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103295
Michael K. Tanner
This paper provides the first causal field evidence that loss aversion shapes pro environmental behavior in biodiversity conservation. Partnering with the Charles Darwin Foundation in the Galápagos, I exploit two rare real world events: the confirmed extinction of a tortoise subspecies and the rediscovery of another once believed extinct. These events motivated randomized email campaigns sent to 3983 prior donors in the Global North. Stratified randomization on past giving, nationality, and prior engagement supports internal validity, while real donors and real biodiversity outcomes preserve external validity. By focusing on actual donation behavior rather than intentions or stated willingness to pay, the study addresses a key gap in the literature. Results show that extinction framing raises the probability of donating from 1.2 percent to 2.1 percent (75 percent) and increases the average unconditional donation from USD 0.17 to USD 0.32 (about 88 percent), while rediscovery yields higher reported happiness and engagement. Together, the findings indicate complementary roles and possible long-term trade-offs, and show that real biodiversity changes can be harnessed to mobilize conservation finance and strengthen pro-environmental behavior.
本文首次提供了损失厌恶塑造生物多样性保护中亲环境行为的因果场证据。我与查尔斯·达尔文基金会(Charles Darwin Foundation)在Galápagos网站上合作,利用了两个罕见的现实世界事件:一种乌龟亚种已被证实灭绝,另一种曾被认为灭绝的乌龟亚种被重新发现。这些事件激发了随机发送给全球北方3983名先前捐助者的电子邮件活动。过去捐赠、国籍和先前参与的分层随机化支持内部效度,而真正的捐赠者和真正的生物多样性结果保持外部效度。通过关注实际的捐赠行为,而不是意图或表示愿意支付,该研究解决了文献中的一个关键空白。结果表明,灭绝框架将捐赠的可能性从1.2%提高到2.1%(75%),并将平均无条件捐赠从0.17美元增加到0.32美元(约88%),而重新发现产生了更高的幸福感和参与度。总之,这些发现表明了互补的作用和可能的长期权衡,并表明可以利用真正的生物多样性变化来调动保护资金和加强亲环境行为。
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引用次数: 0
Split incentives and energy efficiency investment: Evidence from the housing market 分割激励和能源效率投资:来自房地产市场的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103277
Erdal Aydin , Piet Eichholtz , Rogier Holtermans , Santiago Bohórquez Correa
Investments in energy efficiency in the built environment play a crucial role in global efforts to combat climate change. However, a significant obstacle to these investments arises from the differing incentives between landlords and tenants in the housing market. Landlords, who are typically not responsible for utility costs, may choose to invest less in energy efficiency improvements if these investments are not adequately reflected in rents. Our study provides empirical evidence of this market distortion, drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset from the Dutch housing market covering 3.8 million homes. We implement a quasi-experimental event study design that exploits transitions from rental to owner-occupied status while holding both the dwelling and the household constant. This identification strategy enables us to isolate changes in energy use attributable to tenure status. Our findings indicate a gradual decline in natural gas consumption following the transition to home-ownership, with an average reduction of about 2% that increases to as much as 5% nine years after the transition. In electricity consumption, split incentives are less important, given that tenants control the use and stock of their appliances, and we find no effect of changes in tenure status. Together, these findings provide empirical support for the relevance of tenure-based incentives in shaping energy-related decisions and can inform the design of targeted policies aimed at improving the energy performance of the rental housing stock.
建筑环境能效投资在全球应对气候变化的努力中发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,这些投资的一个重大障碍来自房地产市场上房东和租客之间不同的激励机制。业主通常不承担公用事业成本,如果这些投资没有充分反映在租金上,他们可能会选择减少对能效改进的投资。我们的研究提供了这种市场扭曲的经验证据,借鉴了荷兰住房市场覆盖380万户家庭的综合面板数据集。我们实施了一个准实验事件研究设计,利用从租赁到自住状态的转变,同时保持住宅和家庭不变。这种识别策略使我们能够分离出归属于权属状态的能源使用变化。我们的研究结果表明,在向自有住房过渡后,天然气消费量逐渐下降,平均下降约2%,在过渡后9年增加到5%。在电力消费方面,考虑到租户控制其电器的使用和库存,分割激励不那么重要,我们发现租户地位的变化没有影响。总之,这些发现为基于任期的激励在形成能源相关决策中的相关性提供了实证支持,并可以为旨在改善租赁住房存量能源绩效的有针对性政策的设计提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
High temperature and learning outcomes: Evidence from Ethiopia 高温与学习成果:来自埃塞俄比亚的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103278
Bhavya Srivastava , Kibrom Tafere , A. Patrick Behrer
What is the impact of high temperatures on human capital accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa? Rising temperatures, due to climate change, and the role of human capital in driving development make answering this question imperative to understand the long-term impacts of climate change in the world’s most climate vulnerable region. We use data from 2003–2019 for 2.47 million test takers of a national high-stakes high-school leaving exam in Ethiopia to study the impacts of temperature on learning outcomes. We find that high temperatures during the school year leading up to the exam reduce test scores, controlling for temperatures during the exam. Female students appear slightly less affected by heat compared to their male counterparts. We do not find evidence to reject the hypothesis that these effects are driven primarily by within-classroom temperatures rather than indirect effects on agriculture.
高温对撒哈拉以南非洲地区人力资本积累的影响是什么?气候变化导致的气温上升,以及人力资本在推动发展方面的作用,使得回答这个问题对于了解气候变化对世界上最易受气候影响地区的长期影响至关重要。我们使用了2003-2019年埃塞俄比亚247万名参加国家高风险高中毕业考试的考生的数据,研究温度对学习成果的影响。我们发现,考试前一学年的高温会降低考试成绩,从而控制考试期间的温度。与男生相比,女生受高温的影响略小。我们没有找到证据来反驳这种假设,即这些影响主要是由教室内的温度驱动的,而不是对农业的间接影响。
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引用次数: 0
Using satellite-observed geospatial inundation data to identify the impacts of floods on firm-level performance: The case of China during 2000–2009 利用卫星观测的地理空间淹没数据识别洪水对企业绩效的影响:以2000-2009年中国为例
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103276
Pao-Li Chang , Fan Zheng
This paper compiles high-resolution geospatial inundation areas of China for the period 2000–2009 based on satellite imagery repositories filtered by the Global Flood Database (GFD). In parallel, we geocode a comprehensive firm-level dataset of China and combine these two sets of geospatial data to identify the set of inundated firms in each year of flood events, as well as the distances of all non-inundated firms from the inundated areas. Given the high-resolution inundation data, we adopt a generalized dynamic-panel specification to estimate dynamic and spatial spillover effects of floods on firm-level production activities (including outputs, capital and labor inputs, and productivities). We find negative and persistent effects of floods on firm-level performance measures, and negative but short-run spillover effects on non-inundated firms in nearby neighborhoods. In contrast, non-inundated firms located 6–12 km away from the inundated area expanded their production in the long run, suggesting reallocation of production activities/facilities away from the inundation area toward the outer rings of the neighborhood. We conduct various robustness checks and extended analyses, identify moderating/aggravating factors of inundation impacts, assess the aggregate effects at the economy-wide, province, and sector levels, and quantify the propagation of flood exposures via the input–output linkages.
本文基于全球洪水数据库(GFD)过滤的卫星影像库,编制了2000-2009年中国高分辨率的地理空间淹没区。与此同时,我们对中国企业层面的综合数据集进行了地理编码,并将这两组地理空间数据结合起来,以确定每年洪水事件中被淹没的企业,以及所有未被淹没的企业与被淹没地区的距离。考虑到高分辨率的洪水数据,我们采用广义动态面板规范来估计洪水对企业层面生产活动(包括产出、资本和劳动力投入以及生产率)的动态和空间溢出效应。我们发现,洪水对企业绩效指标的负面和持续影响,以及对附近社区未被洪水淹没的企业的负面但短期的溢出效应。相比之下,距离淹没区6-12公里的未被淹没的公司从长远来看扩大了生产,这表明生产活动/设施从淹没区重新分配到附近的外环。我们进行了各种稳健性检查和扩展分析,确定了洪水影响的缓和/加剧因素,评估了整个经济、省份和行业层面的总体影响,并通过投入产出联系量化了洪水风险的传播。
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引用次数: 0
European energy crisis: Did electricity prices shock real estate markets? 欧洲能源危机:电价冲击了房地产市场吗?
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103283
Becka Brolinson , William M. Doerner , Arne Johan Pollestad , Michael J. Seiler
This paper investigates how the 2021–2022 European energy crisis, a major macro-financial shock, affected the relative valuation of energy-efficient homes in Norway. Leveraging the country’s electricity market—characterized by five distinct regions with varying exposure to European power prices—we analyze how energy price shocks influence housing market dynamics with a triple difference-in-differences regression framework. We find that home prices fell significantly in regions affected by the shock, with average value losses ranging from 1.2% to 3.6%. Energy-efficient homes experienced smaller price declines, particularly in the single-family home segment, indicating a differential price response during the shock. Moreover, the negative price effects persist despite the introduction of electricity price subsidies. These findings highlight the complex relations among energy costs, real estate market valuations, and housing characteristic heterogeneity by offering generalizable insights into the resilience of housing markets to unanticipated shocks and the role of policy interventions in mitigating their effects.
本文研究了2021-2022年欧洲能源危机(主要的宏观金融冲击)如何影响挪威节能住宅的相对估值。利用该国的电力市场——其特点是五个不同的地区对欧洲电价的影响不同——我们使用三差中差回归框架分析能源价格冲击如何影响住房市场动态。我们发现,在受冲击影响的地区,房价大幅下跌,平均价值损失在1.2%至3.6%之间。节能住宅的价格跌幅较小,特别是在单户住宅市场,这表明在冲击期间价格反应不同。此外,尽管引入了电价补贴,但负面的价格效应仍然存在。这些发现突出了能源成本、房地产市场估值和住房特征异质性之间的复杂关系,为住房市场抵御意外冲击的能力以及政策干预在减轻其影响方面的作用提供了可概括的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Willingness to pay for climate mitigation: Evidence from Latin America 为减缓气候变化付费的意愿:来自拉丁美洲的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2026.103297
Allen Blackman , Marc Jeuland , Emilio Leguizamo
The ability of countries in Latin America to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century, the target set by the Paris Agreement, will depend critically on citizen support. To gauge this support, we administered a contingent valuation survey to representative samples in six of the region's leading GHG emitting countries and in the United States, which is used as a comparator. The survey elicits respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for achieving global net zero by 2050 and uses a split sample design to test whether WTP is affected by the distribution of decarbonization costs across households. The mean WTP estimate for the pooled sample of six Latin American study countries is on par both with our estimate for the United States, and with estimates from a recent CV study for China, Sweden, and the United States. Moreover, this mean exceeds these estimates when all are normalized by income. However, among the Latin American study countries, mean WTPs for Argentina and Brazil are relatively low. We also find that the distribution of the costs of decarbonization across households does not have a clear effect on WTP and that the drivers of WTP for our Latin American study countries are similar to those the literature has identified in other regions.
拉丁美洲国家能否在本世纪中叶实现《巴黎协定》设定的温室气体净零排放目标,将在很大程度上取决于民众的支持。为了衡量这种支持,我们对该地区六个主要温室气体排放国家和美国的代表性样本进行了一项条件评估调查,这被用作比较。该调查询问了受访者为到2050年实现全球净零排放而支付的意愿(WTP),并使用分割样本设计来测试WTP是否受到家庭间脱碳成本分布的影响。六个拉丁美洲研究国家汇总样本的平均WTP估计值与我们对美国的估计值以及最近对中国、瑞典和美国的CV研究的估计值相同。此外,当所有人都按收入归一化时,这个平均值超过了这些估计值。然而,在拉丁美洲的研究国家中,阿根廷和巴西的平均wtp相对较低。我们还发现,家庭间的脱碳成本分布对WTP没有明显的影响,拉丁美洲研究国家的WTP驱动因素与文献在其他地区发现的驱动因素相似。
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引用次数: 0
Physical climate risk and the pricing of bank loans 自然气候风险与银行贷款定价
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103280
Karol Kempa
This paper analyses how physical climate risk affects the pricing of loans. Using a global dataset of almost 86,000 syndicated bank loans, we find that a higher climate vulnerability of a firm’s host country leads to higher costs of borrowing. The effects of physical climate risk on loan pricing are particularly large if loans have long maturities and if borrowing firms are in financial distress. In addition to loan pricing, banks also adjust other loan terms, such as loan size, collateral requirements, or fees, to manage their exposure to their borrowers’ physical climate risk. As climate risk may also directly affect loan pricing, e.g., via general updates of credit risk models due to observed changes in climate risk, we extend the analysis to firm-level credit risk ratings. The results show that physical climate risk negatively affects long-term credit risk ratings, while it does not play a role in short-term credit risk, and hence support the proposed channel that physical climate risk affects loan pricing via its effect on firms’ default probabilities.
本文分析了物理气候风险对贷款定价的影响。利用全球近86000笔银团银行贷款的数据集,我们发现,企业所在国的气候脆弱性越高,其借款成本就越高。如果贷款期限较长,且借款公司处于财务困境,则自然气候风险对贷款定价的影响尤其大。除了贷款定价,银行还调整其他贷款条款,如贷款规模、抵押品要求或费用,以管理其对借款人实际气候风险的敞口。由于气候风险也可能直接影响贷款定价,例如,由于观察到气候风险的变化,通过对信用风险模型的一般更新,我们将分析扩展到公司层面的信用风险评级。结果表明,物理气候风险对长期信用风险评级有负向影响,而对短期信用风险没有影响,因此支持了物理气候风险通过对企业违约概率的影响影响贷款定价的渠道。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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